我的。。。。

古老的致富秘笈

2010-07-17T13:15:00.000+08:00

這則巴比倫最有錢人的故事，看似簡單平常，但在8000年前巴比倫人已經懂得理財致富之道，這些原則到現在一樣可以適用。

巴比倫最有錢的人叫做阿卡德，本是擔任雕刻陶磚工作，有一天，一位有錢人歐格尼斯來向他訂購一塊刻有法律條文的陶磚，阿卡德唯一的條件是歐格尼斯要告訴他致富的秘訣。

完成工作後，歐格尼斯告訴阿卡德：“財富就像樹一樣，從一粒微小的種耔開始成長，第一筆你存下來的錢就是財富成長的種籽，不管賺多麼少，一定要存下十分之一。”

一年後，當歐格尼斯再來的時候，阿卡德很驕傲的說，他確實照他的方法作了，歐格尼斯就問：“那存下來的錢，你如何使用呢？”

阿卡德說：“我把它給了磚匠阿盧瑪，因為他要到遠地買回菲利人稀有的珠寶，當他回來時，我們將把珠寶賣很高的價格，然後平分這些錢。”

歐格尼斯責罵說：“只有傻子才會這麼做，為甚麼買珠寶要信任磚匠的話呢？你的存款已經泡湯了！年輕人，你把財富的樹連根都拔掉了，下次你買珠寶應該去請教珠寶商，買羊毛去請教羊毛商，別和外行人做生意！”

果然，磚匠阿魯瑪被菲利人騙了，買回來的是不值錢的玻璃。

第二年，歐格尼斯再來的時候，阿卡德告訴他：“我把存下來的錢借給鐵匠去買青銅原料，然後他每四個月付我一次租金。”

歐格尼斯說：“很好，那你如何使用賺來的租金呢？”

阿卡德說：“我拿來吃一頓豐富大餐，並買一件漂亮的衣服，我還計劃買一頭驢子來騎。”

歐格尼斯笑了，他說：“你把存下的錢所衍生的子息吃掉了，你如何期望他們以及他們的子孫能再為你工作，賺更多的錢？”

又過了二年，歐格尼斯問阿卡德：“你是否達到夢想中的財富？”

阿卡德說：“還沒有，但是我已存下了一些錢，然後錢滾錢，錢又滾錢。”

歐格尼斯說：“你已學會了致富的秘訣。首先你學會了從賺來的錢省下錢，其次你學會了向內行的人請教意見，最後你學會了如何讓錢為你工作，使錢賺錢。你已學會如何獲得財富，保持財富，運用財富。”.

巴比倫五大金科定律

這則古老的智慧當中，蘊含著金錢的五大金科定律：

金錢的第一定律：

金錢是慢慢流向那些願意儲蓄的人。
每月至少存入十分之一的錢，久而久之可以累積成一筆可觀的資產。

金錢的第二定律：

金錢願意為懂得運用它的人工作。

那些願意打開心胸，聽取專業的意見，將金錢放在穩當的生利投資上，讓錢滾錢，利滾利，將會源源不斷創造財富。

金錢的第三定律：

金錢會留在懂得保護它的人身邊。

重視時間報酬的意義，耐心謹慎的維護它的財富，讓它持續增值，而不貪圖暴利。

金錢的第四定律：

金錢會從那些不懂得管理的人身邊溜走。.對於擁有金錢而不善經營的人，一眼望去，四處都有投資獲利的機會，事實上卻處處隱藏陷阱，由於錯誤的判斷，它們常會損失金錢。

金錢的第五定律：

金錢會從那些渴望獲得暴利的人身邊溜走。

金錢的投資報酬有一定的回收，渴望投資獲得暴利的人常被愚弄，因而失去金錢。缺乏經驗或外行，是造成投資損失的最主要原因。

Disposal of SCOMMIR

2010-07-17T13:03:00.002+08:00

Lalala... Disposed all my SCOMMIR last week!!! wakakakaa...

I had been extremely quiet in the blog since couple of months bc.. well, busy will work actually and work until no day no night, not a good life actually... haha

>>>>>

5.5億售印尼海事業務‧史格米海事變現金公司

大馬財經 2010-07-13 10:47

(吉隆坡）史格米海事（SCOMIMR, 7045, 主板貿服組）將透過集團整合活動，脫售核心的海事業務，變成純現金公司，未來業務方向暫時未明。這間公司發表文告說，旗下兩家獨資子公司，即史格米海事服務和Grundtvig海事，建議以1億7180萬美元（約馬幣5億5000萬令吉），脫售5家間接子公司給80.54%印尼子公司PTRig Tenders（PTRT）。

PTRT將透過銀行貸款和發行附加股籌資展開收購。

惟作為PTRT股東的史格米海事服務，不會認購這批附加股，由一家匿名私人管理基金設立的特別用途公司左玄離岸公司（Portside Offshore Inc.），將收購和轉換這批附加股，以成為PTRT的大股東。PTRT的估值約為2億4630萬美元。這項計劃需待左玄離岸公司先進行精密審核再做決定。一旦完成，史格米海事持有PTRT股權將沖淡至20.63至24.55%，轉為純現金公司，可能面對停牌的命運。不過，史格米海事考慮收購或注入新業務、或展開聯營公司等，以維持上市地位。惟目前董事部尚未做出任何決定。

這間公司總裁穆尼占表示，與印尼基金探討合作商機符合策略性與時機。由於印尼煤炭生產領域持續擴展，海事務流服務需求不斷提高，加上競爭激烈，因此透過聯營可擴大印尼油輪業務。他指出，希望能引進左玄離岸公司成為策略投資者後，結合雙方能力與網絡，以擴大PTRT營運能力，這間公司未來仍會參與管理活動。

上週五（7月9日）早市起停牌的史格米海事，將於週二（7月13日）復牌。

<<<<<

Well well well, this trigger me to dispose my SCOMMIR on hand, profit taken around ~18%,
Indead, it is a good news for SCOMMIR to clear up the liabilities and this is a good time for them to avoid the new tighter financing control by Indonasia gov on foriengn sea transportation service provider company.

My concern is more on company future direction.

As i don't know how the board is going to use the cash on hand, so i rather pull out and look 1st. Since now everybody is buying, soon we will know what they are going to do.

My next plan, if price drop back to <49sen, will try to buy in some else will keep the capital for another potential counter :)

Overall, this yr looks like not a good yr for me as most of my pick is stil in negative position. well.. lets wait la..

又到報稅季節‧26招精明省稅

2010-03-29T17:42:00.000+08:00

2010-03-22 20:06

“人間4月天”原是浪漫及美好的，不過對於大馬的納稅人來說，又是一個茫然的“稅務呈報月”。拿出過去一年的各種消費賬單，看看哪些是可扣稅項目，整理一番，或許可以找到一點眉目。

雖然市民是稅務呈報的“輸家”，不過究竟怎樣報稅才能將納稅額降到最低呢？相信這是人人都期望的目標。不妨參考《財富焦點》為你搜羅的26招“省稅大斗法”，加上專家“指點迷津”，至少在這拮据的生活中多省幾分錢。

個人省稅

從個人角度出發，其實不難發現，在我們的日常生活中都有很多可扣稅項目。經過一年的累積，省稅並不是一件難事。

1.為孩子存入的教育儲蓄

自2007年起，在國家教育儲蓄計劃下，你為孩子存入儲蓄戶頭的款項都可獲得稅務回扣。

雖然這項回扣的頂限是3000令吉，不過若夫妻是分開報稅，則兩人都可享有此回扣。

稅務回扣：每人3000令吉

例子：若A先生的課稅率處於24%，相等於節省720令吉稅務（3000令吉24%）。

2.夫妻分開報稅

分開報稅允許個人的稅務回扣達到9000令吉，而若聯合報稅，其中一方則僅能獲得3000令吉稅務回扣。

3.懇請雇主提高公積金貢獻

由雇主給予的公積金是免稅的，所以，若要減低你的可扣稅收益，懇請雇主減低每個月獲得的薪金，不過同一時間卻提高公積金貢獻。

例子：A先生同意每個月減薪1000令吉，以將這筆錢放入公積金的戶頭內。到了年杪，他的公積金戶頭有“額外”的1萬2000令吉，不過他的可扣稅收益卻減少1萬2000令吉（相同數額）。

為此，他可省下2880令吉稅務（1萬2000令吉24%）。

點評：自雇人士必須注意，當他把錢放進公積金戶頭時，有關數額是不可扣稅的，除非透過成立一間私人有限公司。

4.將你的現金津貼改為補貼

每個月由雇主發出的固定津貼（remuneration），包括娛樂、房子或泊車費都當作扣稅項目。因此，不妨將它變成補貼（reimbursement）（根據收據），這樣就不會被視為扣稅項目。

例子：A先生將每年6令吉的固定津貼改為補貼後（擁有收據），可省下1440令吉稅務（6000令吉24%）。

5.爭取公司的汽車

若你使用的是屬於公司的汽車，將被視為一種“福利”，且屬於可扣稅項目。不過，對納稅人來說，使用公司的汽車是有好處的，因為預設的汽車稅務遠低於購買及維護汽車的真正成本。

根據條例，納稅人每年須為一輛總值7萬5000令吉的汽車繳付3600令吉稅務。若汽油是由雇主支付，可扣稅額將額外增加1200令吉。

你是否能從公司汽車中收惠，仰賴汽車的價值及你目前的扣稅率。

6.慈善

捐款予受核准的團體將使你獲得扣稅。從2008年起，可扣稅額不可超過總收入的7%。

例子：A先生的可扣稅收入為9萬令吉，他可作出6300令吉的捐款，並省下1512令吉稅務（6300令吉Ｘ24%）。

7.深造（碩士／博士）

政府在2007年度財政預算案中曾宣佈，只要攻讀任何碩士或博士學位，每年的可扣稅達5000令吉。有關課程未必要以“全職”性質攻讀，不過學府一定要受政府或財政部承認。

例子：當A先生完成碩士學位後，他可省下1200令吉稅務（5000令吉24%）。

8.培養閱讀習慣

從2007年起，在購買書籍、雜誌或其他刊物時，納稅人可獲得1000令吉個人稅務回扣。因此，不妨考慮以書作為送禮首選。

例子：A先生在購買書籍時，可節省240令吉稅務（1000令吉24%）。

9.運動不可少

在1997年體育發展法令下，在購買運動器材時，你每年可獲得300令吉回扣。

例子：A先生在購買300令吉的運動器材時，可省下71令吉稅務（300令吉24%）。

10.購買人壽保險

每年支付保費予保險公司可獲得最高6000令吉可扣稅額。不過，這項利好是與公積金或其他雇員計劃一起享有的。

11.醫藥或教育保單

這兩項保單可讓你合共獲得最高3000令吉稅務回扣，當中的範疇包括醫藥項目（作為人壽保險的一部份）。這類保單可以是你本身、伴侶或孩子的。

例子：在取得孩子的教育保單後，A先生省下720令吉（3000令吉24%）。

12.支付父母的醫藥費

當你支付父母的醫藥費時，你可獲得高達5000令吉的稅務回扣。

例子：A先生為父母繳付醫藥費，令他省下1200令吉（5000令吉24%）。

13.醫藥

當你進行醫藥檢驗時，你每年可獲得高達500令吉的稅務回扣；至於本身、伴侶及孩子的嚴重疾病醫療開銷也可享有高達5000令吉的回扣。

若你已在同一年花費在完整的醫藥上，嚴重疾病的5000令吉扣稅額則將減少。

殘障人士（包括本身、伴侶、孩子或父母）也可另外獲得高達5000令吉稅務回扣，以支援殘障人士的日常基本需求。

例子：A先生進行醫藥檢查，他可省下120令吉（500令吉24%）。

14.回教捐贈（zakat）

若你是回教徒，支付任何數額的“回教捐贈”可讓你享有稅務回扣。

15.購買電腦

每3年購買一次電腦、打印機及軟件可享有3000令吉稅務回扣。

例子：A先生在購買電腦時刻省下720令吉（3000令吉24%）。

16.聘請稅務顧問

徵詢稅務專家的意見，重新調整薪資架構，讓稅務節約達到最高效益，特別是那些月入超過5000令吉者。

投資省稅

今年你或許在尋求一些投資機會，從稅務角度出發，某些投資項目確實可省下稅務。然而，若你的課稅率偏高，某些投資項目可能會無法帶來利好。除了尋求豁免稅務的投資工具，不妨參考以下這些投資利好：

17.購買25萬令吉或以下的產業

任何的產業交易都須繳付印花稅，包括產業易主。2008年財政預算案宣佈，不超過25萬令吉的產業將豁免50%印花稅，而最高則可省下2000令吉的稅務（以25萬令吉的產業計算）。

有關50%印花稅豁免項目僅限於“一人一屋”，且買賣協議是在2007年9月至2010年12月簽訂。

18.購買同樣類型的產業

內陸稅收局已鑑定的產業組別包括住宅、商業及空曠地庫。若你擁有的兩項產業都落在同一個組別內，你可降低某一項產業的可扣稅額。所以，出租產業的可扣稅收益可被降低，前提是另一項產業蒙受虧損。

不過，那些進行產業交易的納稅人（買賣產業賺取收益）則須繳付個人所得稅。

點評：產業虧損一般是指買賣虧損或租金虧損，所以當你擁有相同的產業類型（如住宅、商業等），一旦其中一項產業蒙受買賣虧損，則可降低另外一項產業的扣稅額。

19.購買股票

雖然說省稅與購買股票沒有太大關係，不過若長期的投資帶來盈利，有關盈利是屬於免稅的。但是，必須注意的是，這僅侷限於長期的股票投資。

若是短期買賣，則被列入營業額收益（revenue income），而不是資本收益（capital income），前者是須被徵稅的。

20.投資在產業投資信托（Reits）

若你的課稅率超過15%，你可選擇產業投資信托。目前在馬股上市的公司多達12家。

由產業投資公司派發的股息稅率為15%，比較一般的公司為26%，而你所省下的錢則為你的個人稅率與15%的差距。

點評：在投資方面，若想要投資在產業領域，可購買產業投資信托公司的股票。除了股息豐厚，也能避開某些風險，如產業盈利稅（RPGT）。

生意人省稅

至於業務經營者也應該花費一點時間策劃你的業務，相信也可以省下金錢。

21.從第一天起，將賬目收好

﹡個人及業務的戶頭交易應該分開，打造一個基本的會計系統；

﹡內陸稅收局是以“應計制”來衡量公司業務的收益；

﹡這表示只要交易完成，無論是物品銷售或是服務撥備，其價值將即時被視為業務收益及屬於可扣稅項目；

﹡若有關交易並未付錢，則可降低你的可扣稅收入；

﹡任何業務上的開銷可從業務收益中減除，條件是有關開銷是完全是從業務盈利中祭出的；

﹡因此，請將所有有關業務的購物單收起，但是資本開銷並沒有納入可扣稅項目，儘管一些資產在資本津貼方面符合扣稅資格。

22.拿捏購買的時間及精明使用固定資產

﹡資本津貼在某些業務資產是被允許的，包括裝置、機器、電腦及軟件；

﹡至於每年獲准的津貼數額仰賴資產的組別（可以參考大眾條例2/2001以得知資產的可扣稅率）；

﹡首項資本津貼包含所購買的資產；

﹡如果你計劃購買物品，嘗試在年杪前完成，以索取資本津貼；

﹡若你以分期供款方式購買資產，有關津貼僅能在支付費用後才能索取。

23.購買公司的汽車

﹡如果你是業務的唯一交易商或夥伴，任何作為業務用途的汽車都可享有稅務回扣；

﹡若你以分期付款方式購買汽車，汽車的融資成本將下調；

﹡你每年也可獲得一筆資本津貼回扣數額；

﹡但是在採取這項省稅措施前，業者須先鑑定汽車作為私人用途的比重有多高；

﹡雖然沒有特定的條例鑑定私人用途的比重，不過業者一定要申請一個合理的數字，且切記要紀錄所有的日常開銷，以方便進行扣稅。

點評：經營本身業務者（如董事）如果是以公司的名義買車，也是省稅的好方法，因為汽車算是一種“福利”，並且不是光拿“現金”。所以，打工族若使用公司的車子也相當划算，因為它屬於福利，當然扣稅額跟著走低。

24.雇用伴侶或家庭成員

﹡其中一項有效的省稅策略是雇用伴侶或家庭成員；

﹡譬如，身為業務經營者的你可雇用妻子。雖然妻子的薪水是可被抽稅，不過你一定要有能力證明她是有能力賺取收入；

﹡在這種情況下，你可為妻子的公積金戶頭作出稅務節約貢獻，而有關數額也促使她享有可扣稅利好；

﹡至於另一項選擇是讓你的伴侶或家庭成員成為業務夥伴，這可讓你有效分配業務收益；﹡鑒於夥伴合作關係不須背負納稅義務，然而各別方面卻須繳付各自業務收益的稅務；﹡若採取分開報稅形式，也是夥伴關係的夫妻可獲得各自的稅務回扣。

點評：若某自雇人士的收入非常高，如1萬令吉，很自然的，他的課稅率就相當高，達逾27%，所以在這種情況下，他可將這1萬令吉'分散'給孩子及妻子，並減低繳稅率。

25.實行措施“追討”未償還債務

-很不幸的，小型業者可完成某項銷售或服務，不過可能無法獲得欠款，包括全部或部份

﹡直到會計年年杪，無法索回的債務可從業務收益中扣除，以降低你的稅務﹡內陸稅收局將密切關注壞賬減值及撥備（預計可部份索取的債務）

﹡為此，在還未視這些債務為無法追討前，請努力追討有關債務，且你一定要評估每一項債務

﹡在你追討債務的過程中，請以白紙黑字方式作為紀錄，如你一定要解釋為何對客戶採取法律行動是不具成本效益的

﹡一旦你最終成為追討壞賬，你一定要將這筆數額納入可徵稅收益

26.打造家庭辦公室

﹡在你自己的家工作可帶來成本稅務削減利好，包括電費、電話費、地稅及公寓收費。

﹡最好索取有關費用的稅務回扣是通過在家設立工作地點，並可鑑定用作業務用途的開銷﹡同樣用在業務及個人的事項，如電費一定要清楚分開，並以房子內的不同地方區分。

﹡若業者的工作室是屬於租賃單位，有關開銷也可以從業務收益中扣除，不過條件是租金是支付予擁有那間房子的伴侶，惟伴侶不涉及業務。

﹡當伴侶沒有涉及業務營運，這項省稅策略才有效，因租金的徵稅率頗低。

點評：在家設立工作室的自雇人士其實並不是省下稅務，反而是省下各種費用，包括水費及電費，這反而關係到財務規劃。整體上，將部份電費納入辦公開銷絕對有助減低繳稅額。但是所謂工作的電費相當主觀，不過一般最多僅佔總電費數量的30%。

巴比倫首富‧7招教你做有錢人

2010-01-27T21:04:00.002+08:00

2010-01-25 11:54

要致富，先要從基礎的理財智慧著手。《巴比倫巨富――給你的12黃金定律》一書的故事背景為古代的巴比倫，透過巨富傳授脫貧之道，讓讀者看故事學理財。

故事講述巴比倫的國王發現，只有少數懂得如何獲取財富的人壟斷了財富，而一般國民都缺乏有關知識。為了令巴比倫成為世上最富裕的城市，國王找來巴比倫最富有的人阿卡特，向100位老師傳授7個致富方法，再讓那些老師把知識進一步傳授給其他人。

陳先生是經常在外跑動的高級執行人員，除了用電話來溝通之外，他也大量使用短訊。現在他使用BlackBerry®方案，不用一直去找地方上網來回答電郵，更不用塞車趕回公司處理一大堆郵件。

方法1：持續儲蓄

阿卡特指出，任何人只要持續地將收入的十分之一用作儲蓄，並作出聰明的投資，就肯定可以創造出一筆可觀的資產。

不過，阿卡特亦指出：“把儲起的資金投資在自己不熟悉的事情上，或強行作出不賺錢的投資，又或過份自信於自己的粗淺經驗，黃金就會棄人遠去。”

方法2：勿亂花費

阿卡特說：“不要把‘必要花費’和‘慾望’混為一每個人都有很多收入無法滿足的慾望，因此我們需要仔細想一想日常生活習慣中，有哪些自以為是理所當然的花費其實是可以減省的，從而把支出控制在收入的十分之九之內。

方法3：投資賺錢

阿卡特認為，“擁有一個裝滿黃金的錢包會讓人愉快，但它不會替你賺錢。”

讓儲起來的錢為自己賺錢，才可以建立真正的財富。

方法4：安全投資

“每個擁有黃金的人，總會被眾多機會所誘惑，而這些機會看起來都似乎會讓人賺大錢。”

阿卡特認為，明智投資的第一原則就是安全，確保在安全的情況下如期收回所投資的財富，並要在能夠獲得合理利潤的情況下投資。

方法5：購買房子

阿卡特建議擁有財富的人購買自己的房子，因為擁有房子可大大減低租金開銷，讓收入用在享受生活和滿足慾望上。

方法6：未雨綢繆

人人都應該在賺錢能力逐漸減少前，準備好一些足以備用多年的投資或存款，為日後不再年輕，或因離世而無法再照顧家人作好準備。

阿卡特說：“有些人可能會購買房屋和土地……當你出租或變賣，所得的就可以達到確保未來收入這目的。”

阿卡特又預期，有朝一日有智慧的人會想出一套保障死者家屬的計劃，人們會定期支付一筆小額款項，而這些錢會累積成一筆可觀的金額給申請人家屬。相信阿卡特所指的，就是保險這現代發明。

方法7：提昇技能

阿卡特表示：“隨著智慧的增長，我們賺得更多。一個人如果對於自己的工作精益求精，他自然會得到豐富的回報。”

要擺脫貧窮的最後一個方法，就是培養自己的能力，令自己變得更有智慧及更有技能。

星洲日報／投資致富‧財富教室‧2010.01.25

Generally, What i see from SCOMIMR now

2010-01-04T18:28:00.003+08:00

SCOMIMR Announcement on 4th Jan 10.

>>>>>

Date of change

31/12/2009

Type of change

Resignation

Designation

Chairman

Directorate

Non Independent & Non Executive

Name

Tan Sri Nik Mohamed bin Nik Yaacob

Age

Nationality

Malaysian

Qualifications

1) Engineering Degree from the Monash University; and
2) Master in Business Management from the Asian Institute of Management

Working experience and occupation

Tan Sri Nik Mohamed served as the Group Chief Executive of Sime Darby Berhad from 1993 until his retirement in June 2004, and also served on the Board of many of the Sime Darby Group companies during the stipulated period.

Directorship of public companies (if any)

1) Guocoland (Malaysia) Berhad (formerly known as Hong Leong Properties Bhd)
2) Scomi Group Bhd
3) Bolton Berhad
4) Kencana Petroleum Bhd
5) Perdana Leadership Foundation

Family relationship with any director and/or major shareholder of the listed issuer

Nil

Any conflict of interests that he/she has with the listed issuer

Nil

Details of any interest in the securities of the listed issuer or its subsidiaries

Options granted pursuant to the Company's ESOS to subscribe for 1,000,000 shares of RM1.00 each in the Company.

<<<<<

>>>>>

Date of change

01/01/2010

Type of change

Appointment

Designation

Chairman

Directorate

Non Independent & Non Executive

Name

Tan Sri Datuk Asmat bin Kamaludin

Age

Nationality

Malaysian

Qualifications

1) Diploma in European Economic Integration from the University of Amsterdam; and
2) Bachelor of Arts (Honours) degree in Economics from the University of Malaya.

Working experience and occupation

Tan Sri Datuk Asmat has vast experience in various capacities in the public service and his last position was as the Secretary-General of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, a position he held from 1992 to 2001. He has served as Economic Counsellor for Malaysia in Brussels and worked with several international bodies such as ASEAN, the World Trade Organisation and the Asia-Pacific Economic Corporation, representing Malaysia in relevant negotiations and agreements.

Tan Sri Datuk Asmat has also been actively involved in several national organisations such as Permodalan Nasional Bhd, Johor Corporation, the Small and Medium Scale Industries Corporation (SMIDEC) and the Malaysia External Trade Development Corporation (MATRADE) while in the Malaysian Government service. Tan Sri Datuk Asmat also served as Governor representing Malaysia on the governing Board of the Economic Research Institute for Asean and East Asia (ERIA).

Directorship of public companies (if any)

1) Scomi Group Bhd
2) Permodalan Nasional Bhd
3) Malaysian Pacific Industries Bhd
4) UMW Holdings Berhad
5) Lion Industries Corporation Berhad
6) YTL Cement Berhad
7) Panasonic Manufacturing Malaysia Berhad
8) Symphony House Bhd
9) TASCO Berhad (formerly known as Trans-Asia Shipping Corporation Berhad)
10) JACTIM Foundation
11) Compugates Holdings Berhad
12) The Royal Bank of Scotland Berhad (formerly known as ABN AMRO Bank Berhad)

Family relationship with any director and/or major shareholder of the listed issuer

Tan Sri Datuk Asmat is the brother-in-law of Vice Admiral Dato' Haron bin Dato' (Dr) Mohd Salleh (Rtd), an Independent Non-Executive Director of the Company.

Any conflict of interests that he/she has with the listed issuer

Nil

Details of any interest in the securities of the listed issuer or its subsidiaries

Nil

>>>>>

1st trading day in 2010 already announce the change of the Chairman.. the new 1 look like got some background.. haha.. good sign for SCOMIMR?

Last few days spent some time to understand the company. Although generally she is almost in the same field as SEALINK but what they actually doing is mainly in the logistic of the coal. the business is also more in Indonesia and Singapore, and few from SME.

The business profit are mainly contributed from the logistic that they are doing as above and only few ten % are from offshose support. I'm refering to their latest Q report for this info.

For seen the company is really taking some action to overcome the bad economy that they are undergoing last year and the year before, and this results with better profit even revenue reduced slightly. thay had improve their operation cost and this use to cover their lower profit in offshose section.

Atleast the company is doing something, this increase some of my confident onto this company.

Cash on hand is <>140M, don't think is a big deal for the time being. As long as the company is making profit. Anyway.. will KIV this.

For the business, offshoes support should recover anyway just the metter of time and for the logistic section, i have no idea on it.. haha.. must read more... This company mainly is doing logistic business around SE Asia, Dubai effect will not be that big anyway, so still in save region.

On top of this the PE is only 5.++ at the time i bot in with the share price ~0.40. i think this is save enough for this stock. Long terms wise it should be a good sign and potential. OK.. this is all for the 1st posting in 2010.. Wishing everybody outthere who invest in stock have a great great earning in 2010!! cheer!!

Buy SCOMIMR at 0.40 and 0.46

2009-12-21T21:49:00.004+08:00

Bot Scomimr today at 0.40...

After fall quite some time since end of the Nov, its already over sell.., mostly affected by the right issue by Scomi, and some more the cruel oil not perform so well in this few months (~70 USD)..

Low PE (~4.50), earn money every year..

Ar.. upcoming will write more on it... this time for record oni...

29/12>> top up another 90 lots at 0.46..

Dubai in trouble??!!

2009-11-27T23:44:00.003+08:00

　　中新網11月27日電中東阿聯酋迪拜出現債務危機，迪拜政府宣布重組旗下的主權投資公司迪拜世界，並尋求延遲6個月償還債款。

　　據香港媒體報導，迪拜世界一旦無力還債，將成為自2001年阿根廷違約以來，全球最大主權基金違約事件。外界擔心可能觸發新一輪金融風暴。

　　迪拜財政部前日宣布透過發債，從阿布扎比政府持有的兩家銀行籌集50億美元，但負債590億美元的迪拜世界未有受惠，財政部要求其債權人允許“暫停”償還債務，至少延長到明年5月30日。

　　迪拜世界最大債權人是阿布扎比商業銀行和阿聯酋NBD PJSC，其它貸款人包括匯豐控股、巴克萊銀行、萊斯銀行、蘇格蘭皇家銀行和瑞信集團等。分析指匯控等銀行可能要為此撇帳。

　　暫停償債行動將立即影響到迪拜世界旗下房地產子公司棕櫚島集團(Nakheel)一筆35億美元下月到期的伊斯蘭債券。

　　迪拜的最高財政委員會主席發表聲明說，明白市場特別是債權人的關注，但迪拜政府必須採取果斷行動，處理迪拜世界的債務負擔，並強調幹預迪拜世界的行動經過深思熟慮。

　　迪拜世界總負債達到接近600億美元，面臨破產危機。外界擔心迪拜的違約風險急升，評級機構大幅調低迪拜政府的相關資產評級，部份更降至垃圾評級。

*****

Here comes again... My current working company just brought over by Abu Dhabi.. don't know will be affected or not... haha ^_^!

Looks like Monday will see another round of drop especially on those construction and propeties company who invest in Mid East like Wct...

WoW @V@..

Sealink 3rd Q results

2009-11-25T23:27:00.002+08:00

*****

KUALA LUMPUR: SEALINK INTERNATIONAL BHD saw net profit for its third quarter (3QFY09) decline by 48% year-on-year to RM10.4 million from RM20 million.

Revenue fell to RM61.6 million from RM83.3 million for the same period.

According to the notes accompanying the announcement, the lower net profit was due to the timing of the sale of offshore support vessels (OSV).

On a cumulative basis, for 9MFY09, Sealink reported a net profit of RM41.8 million compared to RM50.2 million from the previous year’s corresponding period.

Going forward, Sealink is cautiously optimistic about the OSV industry but admitted that the road to recovery may be longer than expected.

“We believe that Petronas may announce the awards for OSV contracts in the near future. These awards would be timely for the group as it has several OSVs that will be delivered in the first half of 2010,” said Sealink. Also due next year are the group’s ship repair facilities that will contribute additional revenue.

*****The Edge

So Q results for Sealink not so good lol.. hold / sell?.. ppl always say market trader always behave like this: if price up they active trade stock, if price drop they invest for long term.. haha..

Another OnG dai ko... Q report, no wander drop so "heong" in this few days..

*****

KUALA LUMPUR: Tanjong Offshore Bhd posted a net loss of RM10.28 million in its third quarter (3Q) ended Sept 30, compared with a net profit of RM5.08 million a year earlier, due mainly to the loss at its UK unit Citech Energy Recovery Systems UK Ltd (CERS).

The company said CERS registered a net loss of £2.70 million (RM15.1 million) in the quarter and had ongoing late delivery charges payments and escalation of costs in its manufacture of waste heat recovery packages.

Revenue for the quarter fell 21.3% to RM154.88 million from RM196.91 million. Loss per share stood at 4.18 sen, compared with earnings of 2.49 sen previously.

"Recently, the group reshuffled the top management positions at CERS so as to have more direct involvement in the day-to-day operational matters. Moving forward, we hope to turn around the losses at CERS and register new sales for the financial year ending 2010," it said in the statement.

For the nine months to September, net profit plunged 86.6% to RM2.46 million from RM18.35 million in the corresponding period of FY08, while revenue jumped 38.3% to RM513.4 million from RM371.13 million.

The company said that it remained "cautiously optimistic" on prospects of the oil and gas industry in the international market .

It said despite the losses registered in 3Q "we remain confident that we are able to overcome short-term losses" as the company continuously enhanced its services to the oil majors in Malaysia and overseas market.

*****

Well well well... OnG... long term game, short term pain.... ^V^!!

Buy Sealink at 0.68 (Avg down)

2009-11-06T22:18:00.004+08:00

Enter Sealink with $0.68 today! Average price is now 0.73

Initial plan was to get 90 Lots but until market close, i only able to get 61 lots. sian! haha.. Let see how it will be.

Will keep Sealink for some time until the Q report out, then decide my next step.

Why 0.68? What i'm thinking is:

1) Of cause PE low.

2) Moving around tht price for almost 2 months.

3) Low volume, should be violate 人和 theory.. but it also give confident to me on reflecting the actual situation of the company share price. I will wait for up-coming 人和 by end of Nov ^V^!

4) Average down my price.

For this stock, this is the 1st time i do average, i make it at the share price after -10% drop from my initial buying price. Will i average it again? if another 5-8% i will do another average but will not be a big amount, because i need to keep money for other good counter.. haha

current cash vs share ratio is 30:70.

Capital is small, bo huat.. haha

Good nite

Fly away (IJM-WC again!!)

2009-11-03T23:40:00.003+08:00

Frankly speaking, IJM-WC perfomance really make me sad, it is not coming to <1.. haha Kong Fu not enough, wrong estimation... anyway, if its come below 1, i will grap again but i think she is quite strong now, still new, many ppl buy and hold to see the futher. haha

Ok, so how? look for others lo.. As i posted before, TGOFFS-WA is already near to my target price, but i found out that it mother is even attracting me!! Today close at 1.15, Pe around around 9! haha.. anyway, there are few dai ko ONG counter with PE oso <10.. OK, put this under monitoring!

another is Genting SP. the sentosa going to open soon, today closing price is SGD1.05, i beleive it is sure win but y i didn't buy ler? i oso don know! maybe she don't have solid data to prove its performance, i just thinking like all others ppl oso thinking. But market up or down is oso due to this rite?? many ppl think it will up then it will be, many ppl think it will down then i oso will be.. haha. Mark again and for monitoring!

Time to sleep! ^V^!!

My next target IJM-WC

2009-10-29T21:53:00.005+08:00

IJM-WC is out yesterday, Open price around RM1.2+ oh (if i not mistaken)!! haha.. Today coming down a bit to 1.16. lets look at it, without the complexity of WR, WC is easier to calculate lol.. hehe

1) in / out money

Warrant price = 1.16
Conversion price = 4.00
Mother price = 4.78
Conversion ratio = 1:1

premium / discount ?
1.16 + 4.00 - 4.78 = 0.38
0.38 / 4.78 * 100 = 7.95%

Current price still in money (< 30%) but is 8%.. put a remark here!!

2) Expired date is 24/10/2014 , 5 yrs from now, in 5 yrs do u think IJM can fly?!! haha.. who knows?

3) Mothers future earning. For this 1 no need to say much lol...Blue chip already cukup makan. Just my concern will be the PE. it PE is now at 21+. consider bit high for blue chip d (or nutral??). And from the tracking, IJM has fully recovered from the down turn and up to the same level around April 08 which is before down turn.

Generally IJM It is aligned to the over all construction market where it almost fully recover from the down turn. If for seen market will be further stable and keep on climbing up, then there are still some margin for IJM. Any how, if look at pass 5 year market beheaviour, the down turn in end of 2008 actually is quite short! and its only take around half year time to stay at the bottom then start moving up again until now where it is almost back to the baseline.

If you look at current index, it is at the level right before the bull in 2007 (or the half way of the bull). I would not say bull is comming because the time for the market to stay at bottom is too low for a big bull to come after it. Btw, IJM is most of the time quite follow the KLCI's step, i not really sure the PE for IJM during April of 2008, any how, i will find it out later. haha.. But IJM's earning is more secure compare to others construction counter, don't u think so?

I think most of the ppl in the market know that warrant of IJM is always 小刀锯大树. For IJM-WC's brother (IJM-WB), the highest it can go is around RM3.++ during bull time. haha, don't ever think of that, if i buy in WC now and can get >30% i will cabut d. 30% for current price is only RM1.60 and at that price, WC still in money (i use mother price as per today).

Let say market went bad and IJM drop, as well as i buy WC at current price (1.16), it will be out money when IJM hit RM4.16. It is quite possible if the "bad news" still keep on coming from our lovely gov.

So this is my plan! (if i able to make it):

1) IJM earning confirm no problem for me, my concern is the influence of the market.

2) I will start collect WC at any price under RM1. At this price, only if IJM drop until RM3, which PE ~14, then will only my buying will be considered out money. For me this is quite secure.. haha.

Of cause, i will buy in step by step and see the situation. Long term i believe it should gain me a lot.

So will IJM-WC able to go down to RM1? For me it is hard to say. BUT! based on WC performance in this 2 days and lately the weak market, i still believe that it can hit below RM1, will see how after T+3 and 4 which is next week.Monday or Tuesday. Let see la..

Come!! Comment Comment!!!

Gatal gatal nak beli!

2009-10-19T21:29:00.002+08:00

Thinking to buy TGOFF-WA, current price 0.80.. quite cheap, let do some home work later.. now day damn busy... worried for run chicken pula like IJM-WR haha. Btw, y IJM-WC still not yet listed??

Short review on my dear SEALINK

2009-10-06T22:35:00.005+08:00

Yesterday my bro ask me, "Sealink how?? u got average down bo?" haha, then i just realize tht i didn't put eyes on this baby long time d, now it is 0.72, lower then my entering price. Ok, lets do some home work now.

Sealink listed in the main board around July-Aug last year 2008. I a very new junior in main board. Any how i listed the Q report that i found from Bursa, i only write down those that i interested la..

Remember tht i buy Sealink (or follow Sifu buy Sealink) is because the low PE. At that time, (some where in July 09, i think), not much ONG stock that PE <10 and Sealink is one of the low PE counter. Another consideration is the limitation of my capital, others ONG is prising at RM1, bit high for me lol, so i'm not going to compare Sealink with others ONG stock now because no point to do that, Sealink also very new in the board, sure cannot 1 to 1 compare with others taiko. And now i'm holding it, then look at her performance only.

Revenue hit bottom on DEC 08, as well as share price, tht time oil price oso deep shit, then recover a bit and jump up to 53M on Mar 09 as well as June 09. I have no doubt with the revenue.

For her Profit after tax, its quite parallel with revenue performance. If compare latest profit to mar 09, revenue almost same but profit drop, this is because the selling for vessels in Mar 09 tht bring up the profit for that quarter, the performance would be the same if without the 1 shot cash in, revenue slide increased to 53M. EPS is also affected by this, so no doubt that the paper performance is not so nice for latest Q report, haha.

In terms of how the company operate in business, i rate it fare la, coz it still new and need some time to make clear the management direction. 1 point is the ROE is quite good, only the fluctuation of it is also quite high, mark for monitor!

Lets look at the simple balance sheet figure. For all quarters, current liabilities is all the time quite high, and the cash is always not enough to cover it. for a new listed company and "assume" it is growing, this is normal situation (pls correct me if i'm wrong). Well, from the current ratio, it seems to be improving but very very slow, staying at 0.6+ something now. For this section, need to monitor the up coming Q report whether the management is working on it or not. Any how, the cash on hand is improving but also quite slow. for a short sum, if the current ratio is still below 0.7, i can accept, haha

New listed company always hard to see the trend or company behavior, so since already on board and with the reasonable PE, lets give Sealink a chance, next Q maybe better and will turn out to be black horse!!.. haha

Why i doing this small data collection on Sealink now is because I'm thinking whether to average down Sealink at current price or keep the bullet for the XXXXX which is mention by SAM. This XXXXX for me is a sure win counter! I have no doubt on it. Haha, seems like i already decided.. Any how, a simple drawing on Sealink also good for me because i have not done this for it yet even i had brought it for few months d.. haha

FAVCO!!!

2009-09-29T00:07:00.003+08:00

Today step in with FAVCO.. haha, 1st time deal with OSK system, just now i check still haven't update my trading history, damn slow.. hehe..

FAVCO moving around 0.90 - 0.95 for 2 weeks d, no metter how the market is, today KLCI dump ~11.++ she oso around tht region, quite save bad, boted 65 lots at 0.90.

I had closed my trading after i sell the KFIMA. new located capital is >15K and <20K (include SEALINK on hand)... haha so around 3+% is on FAVCO now lol... The rest will keep for YTLPOWRWB or GENTING SP...

Good nite.... 　

KFIMA again.....

2009-09-17T21:33:00.003+08:00

Today Disposed all my KFIMA on hand at 0.85... morning cannot login with phone, miss out the 0.87.. haha, any how, total return on KFIMA ~22% cukup la tu!! hehe..

Tomorrow mayb check on some stock.. plan to buy back some from other counter.. hehe

good nite.

KFIMA.....

2009-09-16T20:13:00.002+08:00

Wow!! extremely long time didn't update my blog d!! no update because I'm damn busy with my new job here... haha.. and it is same for my stock investment, no buy in and sell out until last week!

I had dispose some of my KFIMA yesterday.The recent raise of the share price for me might due to the dividend announcement. It moves damn fast upward today with ~10% increase and close at 0.87 (pick on 0.885).

So summary is:

40% disposed yesterday at closing price 0.79
30% disposed today morning at 0.83
15% disposed today evening at 0.87 (plan to dispose all at 0.87 but oni partial match!! kanasai!!!)

Total return now on KFIMA is ~2+%!! thanks to Sifu SAM!

so remaining on hand is 15% KFIMA.. let see if tomorrow can still up up, will let got anything >0.90, if standing steel at 0.88-0.86, will dispose in that range, if start moving reverse, will disposed around 0.86-0.85.. haha ^o^!

Today volume is very high, tomorrow maybe will see some profit taking on KFIMA from the market. anyhow, i will stood with my plan.

So current stock on hand is only SEALINK that consume my ~20% of capital, cash 80% will seeking for so other stock. Sifu SAM had recommended some counter under his radar. Maybe tumpang his boat.. hehe

As for my self, i'm eying on Citi at price <4 and GenI anything below 0.9 after complete the right issue.. hmm.. let see..

After change to new job, i have very less time to look into the market, feel some outdated to the market news and less sensitive d... have to find the way to tune back.. haha

Wish u all good luck in investment!! cheer!!

SAM's e-book

2009-08-21T21:05:00.004+08:00

Wakaka.. today i bought Unker SAM's e-book d!! next time no need to copy and paste his comment d.. haha..

I think learn from ppl's experience is very valuable, especially when it is proved by ur self that the method they are using is really working.. KLCI, SGX, HS, and DOW have there own rules, every market have their own style and SAM is sharing his experience in KLCI, this is what trigger me to buy the e-book.. haha..

So lets give some support. Btw, if u think that this is useless for you and u can gain experience by ur own in KLCI, is oso ok la.. no harm,.. hehe

http://samgang.blogspot.com/2009/08/v-welcome-to-wwwsamgangblogspotcom-v.html

Sell of RCECAP

2009-08-12T22:13:00.006+08:00

Today finish up all my RCECAP on hand....

Yesterday:
0.69 ==> 5000
0.725 ==> 3500

Today:
0.715 ==> 3500

Total profit of 21.65%

Now have zero RCECAP on hand, buy back again if she drop back to below 0.60 ^V^! Is time to jump off the train because RCECAP already hit my tp (anything >0.7+) ^V^!

Talking about this company especially the buz that they are doing, still no others big company doing the same things as RCE, (bank is different type of loan borrower). RCE still have the advantage of the market share. But how good is this buz??

Any how, if not going to do any long term invest, i mean 3 - 5 years, RCE will always be my short terms choice for the time being. Arrr.. i really half tanker FA guy when come to decision making!! am i looking into the company or the market?? Like SAM say, even Citi running with "-" PE but he still buying... he is looking for 3 - 5 years!!

Look at RCECAP again

2009-08-09T09:25:00.002+08:00

RCECAP announced the 1st Q results on last Friday lol..... As expected, The Q result is good, with the increase of the revenue as well as the EPS of 2.61 for the 1st Q. even with the same EPS for the up coming 3 Q, the PE for it still stay at ~6.2 with annum EPS of ~0.10. haha.. not bad not bad.

But on the other hand, i found this in one of the forum:

>>>>

RCECAP 的生意真得能做嗎？

RCECAP的主要業務，有點近似銀行，或貸款公司，因為它沒執照像銀行般吸取公眾的存款，所以資金來源是通過發行債券、票據，甚至發行新股。

RCECAP的管理開支：
2006=3千5百萬
2007=4千5百萬
2008= 5千1百萬 (估計)
日益增加的管理開支，佔融資總額約11%；

主要資金來源自融資：
2億4千萬 (利息開支6.25%-9.00%)
1億2千萬 (利息開支6.25%-9.00%)
6千萬　　 (利息開支15.0%)
平均融資利息約８.65％；

也就是說，RCECAP需要計算約超過２０％的利息予借貸人，才能有盈利；
２０％的利息，遠遠高過其它金融公司約１０％的個人貸款利息。
這生意真能做下去嗎？

依據2006-2007年報披露的借貸收入，佔總貸款約9.7％和17.8％，這個數目有２個關鍵：
1.兩者的收入不足以償還RCECAP的貸款利息和管理開支。
2.兩者數字１年內變化太大，可能蘊藏問題。

股票分析師認為RCECAP主要貸款給公務員，其滲透率低，市場開發大，且欠款自動從公務員薪水中扣除，可防止呆帳的情況發生。
但我卻看到呆帳預備金高達１０餘％！遠遠高於銀行呆帳平均３倍以上。

By Chookf_Cari

<<<<<

This come from one of the member in the forum and posted on Apr 2008. I try to check on the latest Annual Report, it seem like the situation is geting worst. Hmm..

Another 1:

>>>>

说说RCE的风险。

1. RCE借出个人贷款和分期付款，收很高的利息。这些贷款是没有生产性的，而且客户的理财能力显然有问题，所以才会借钱，最后会不会还钱有疑问。而且，RCE的利息比市场高很多，是哪些人不去借比较底利息的贷款，却向RCE借高利息的贷款？

2. RCE基本是在做银行的生意，却没有deposit来作为资本来源，只好靠股东基金，和借贷来筹资。RCE已经借了大笔钱了，之前想发出ABS来筹资，可是现在ABS已经没什么市场，所以才又出private placement来筹资。RCE钱紧的很，根本不会发高股息。

3. 研究员都说公务员的拖欠率很低，可是RCE的receivable和股东资金相比起来太大了，只要拖欠率提高一点，RCE的股东资金就可能亏完，进PN17。

4. RCE靠与几个koperasi合作来得到客户，这种合作关系稳固吗？我有怀疑。

5. RCE还有政策上的风险。前不久看到新闻说Angkasawan要求检讨让financial institute直接扣薪的制度。

6. RCE和大股东的关系很复杂，related party transaction很多。

By Mr. Business_Cari

<<<<<

RCECAP for me is a 成长股, average RoE is 32 in 5 years time and non of the year is having the RoE lower then 20, further more, there are no other competitor in the same field as RCECAP. But after i read some point from others as shows on above, the nature of the business for RCECAP makes me worried. Haha...

BUT!!!

If we look from the other side, Market always right!! no metter blue chip or 2nd line stock, they also can make money if we know what we are doing! So, my new plan on RCECAP is i have no plan to keep for long, currently the financial ratio (especially debt vs cap) still accectable, so no plan to sell out now unless it goes >0.70.. 10-20% return from this stock should be good enough for me, and also i confident on SAM's call. RCE should not die that easy, just it will keep me worried time to time nia.. haha.

Buy SEALINK at 0.76

2009-08-06T20:37:00.003+08:00

Wow!! long time no buy and sell d!! today bot Sealink 80 lots at 0.76!!

Reason:

O & G related,

After Pentach, i haven't got any O & G stock on hand some more low PE.. TGOFFS as per analyzed before, no way can get that price any more. Also Blue Chip already up until 7 7 8 8 d, so have to look for 2nd line stock lol

Regarding the FA point of view, it is not a sure win counter la (where got sure win counter in Bursa? ^V^!), some more Sealink still young in main board. So! will cabut after profit around 15-20%.

Ok ok... soon will post up some analysis on Sealink..

Busy Busy...

2009-07-23T23:33:00.003+08:00

Dear all,

Already long long time didn't update my blog d, busy with my career change.. haha, looking forward for new job and new environment!

So for the time being, i will be seldom update my blog on stock.. until i settle down, i will continue la...

So recently market keep on up up up, so i still holding what i have since 1 month before. not plan to change anything as i can see from today that the 2nd level of stock counter start to pick up after the blue chip increase a lot. hehe... i think is almost the time for these 2nd level counter d...

Wish u all untung banyak banyak la... ^V^!!

Buy or Not??

2009-07-16T13:22:00.000+08:00

I have some bullets on hand... PANTECH or PENERGY?? still thinking... or keep a side for a while?? hmm.... how ler??

O&G counters may correct before rising again

2009-06-29T23:09:00.001+08:00

Written by Gan Yen Kuan

KUALA LUMPUR: Oil prices may have run ahead of the demand-and-supply fundamentals, which could result in near-term correction of crude oil prices and the share prices of oil and gas (O&G) stocks, according to Standard & Poor’s (S&P) vice-president and head of Asia equity research Lorraine Tan.

As excess supply exists while inventory levels remain high, an output cut by Opec could provide some ceiling and potential downward pressure to the recent rise in oil prices, she said.

However, as exploration activities were expected to resume towards the end of the year due to current oil price levels, she said O&G counters could later benefit from potential awards of contracts.

“That [oil prices staying at US$70 (RM247) to US$75 per barrel] means oil companies don’t have that much pressure to cut their exploration budget. Obviously we have seen some delays in contract awards but I think those would hopefully resume towards the end of the year with prices at this level.

“We will first see some consolidation and profit-taking in this sector, before it moves up,” she said at a media briefing last Friday.

The anticipated correction was also partly due to the fact that the energy sector had significantly outperformed the broader market in the first half (1H) of the year, with median performance up 106.9%, more than four times the market gain in 1H.

S&P Equity Research expects WTI crude oil prices to average US$56 per barrel this year and US$63 per barrel next year.

Its top picks in the sector are SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd due to its “unique asset positioning and strong earnings growth”, and Alam Maritim Resources Bhd for its track record in earnings delivery.

Meanwhile, RHB Research head of research Lim Chee Sing said while there were speculative elements in the rise of oil prices recently, the rise also reflected improving confidence among investors.

“The global economy has passed its worst. Although there are contractions, they are at a smaller magnitude. We are in a healing process and future prospects improve. Investors begin to take position in commodity futures,” he told The Edge Financial Daily via telephone.

He noted that high-cost O&G projects that were delayed could be reviewed as they “became viable again” at current oil price levels.

“The improving prospects will propel the O&G sector,” he said. RHB Research expects oil prices to trade in the range of US$60 to US$70 per barrel for the rest of the year.

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, June 29, 2009.

>>>>>

Buy KFIMA at 0.63

2009-06-29T20:34:00.003+08:00

Yoyo!! today bot another 60 lots of KFIMA at 0.63!! this few days the volume is damn thin ler.. how ar?? Hold hold hold and wait wait wait lo.. cash v share is now at 24 v 76 d!!

i plan to sell AXIATA since last week until now, and the share still with me!! damn!! this is because greedy lol... keep on waiting for higher price!! shit, tomolo sure have to dispose!! sure!!

Today get call from OSK says that my account transfer already completed but the online OSK188 still cannot use, looks like i have to phone call buying d for Genting SP. Let see how..

This week looks like don't have any catalyst on KLCI.. sian lol...

GENTING SINGAPORE PLC

2009-06-28T13:47:00.006+08:00

Do some info finding on Genting Singpore PLC, found out some point that make me have to reconsider to buy in.. hahaha..

I think no need to talk about the history of this company la, the main project now for her is the IR (Integrated Resort) in Singapore Sentosa lol. On top of this, GS also involve in the Casino business in UK (currently she is the largest investor in UK for casino gaming business) and this is the only business that she is operating now (correct me if I'm wrong). Any how, the business is in loss due to decrease of the customer and the changes in the tax system done by UK gov. In April, UK gov has revised and increase the tax for the casino machine and this was expected to bring the losses of 268M SGD for GS (for coming few FY).

In terms of the company current status hor, of cause la operating in losses as the main income from UK casino business is losing profit. And for the IR project, the debt is extremely high now, GS has become the company that having the highest debt in hand among all the listed company in SGX. The total debt for GS as of 1st Q'09 is at 2498M! Long term debt is 2183M and short term debt is 314.74M. EPS surely is negative d (-0.33 SGD), NTA stay at 0.29 SGD.

The high debt in GS are mainly used for the investment in IR project, total investment for IR had reached 65.9B. To prepare this kind of huge money for the IR project, GS has announced 2 times of right issues (2005 and 2007) and the rest is from the bond by total of 6 banks. Mr. Lim has done an estimation 2 years back where the GS is only able to make profit after 7 years of IR operation. this statement was made on 2007/08 and during that time the debt is far away less then today, so how long it needs to recover all the debt accumulated until today? Any how, we know that the losses surely will be covered after IR start to operate early next year.

In terms of the casino business in S'pore, the country had made their own law for this which is the Singaporean or PR have to pay $100 per entry per day into the casino, the ppl that allow to enter the casino also must fulfil a few of criteria that set by the S'pore gov where ppl who are bankrupt and still rely on gov. support for their daily life are not allowed to enter the casino. So after the gov. filter here and filter there, i think the main customer for IR will be the foreigner. As seen in some research, the main profit contributor for Genting Malaysia and Macau casino are those local guys and not those visitor or foreigner from others country (~70% are from local). I think in the 1st few years after the GS start to operate the main income should be coming from the theme park rather then the casino, we will verify this from their quarter or annual report soon *V*!

How bout that license for the casino in S'pore? Generally, GS already get it from the gov. but in my point of view, before the casino start to operate, there will still some hidden chance for changes, why?? As we all know, Mr. Lim had disposed 9% of his holding in GS lately, as also known by all of us, he plan to enter the MGM and further his step to move into Macau casino business. Who is the Dai Ko in Macau?? Mr. Ho lol, and we all know that S'pore gov. really "bo su ka" this Mr. Ho, this we can see from the S'pore casino license tender during 2006/2007 where GS plan to work with Mr. Ho for Macau casino business and she almost loss in the license tender because the S'pore gov disagree with GS to work out with Mr. Ho. This time, Mr. Lim sold his GS share and invest in Macau, surely the S'pore gov. will have some action on this (i expect la), i would put in some risk there for GS due to Mr Lim's action.

Talk about the management, I really don't like the style of Mr Lim la, before this, he had soled 2 US online casino company which is under his name to Resort World, this 2 companies are actually operating under losses and yet he still buy it with Resort from him self. And for the latest 9% share disposition in GS because he want to enter MGM, i not really agree on this. Y? because the bond issued by MGM with the DY of ~10% is to cover the high debt of MGM, MGM is running losses and Mr. Lim still buy in his bond, i really don understand la... haha, Luckily he buy in MGM with his own money, if he use GS to buy like what he did on Resort, for sure the company no future d.. haha.

Any how, IR will start her soft launch in early 2010, let us see what will be at that time. Will GS become the next legend like Genting?? i think the chance is low because Mr Lim not same like his father. I really doubt on his capability (looking at his annual salary korek from Genting share holder already sian... haha) maybe i'm worng oso, haha. But for the IR investment in Singapore, it really can make money if the chairman is old unker Lim.

So how now? buy or not buy? I'm not a market analyser nor a business man, i cannot seen the future for a business and i have less experience. I can say that GS is in high debt because they not yet start operate the IR, things will get better once the IR start to operate. For GS, the UK business for me is dead, the only chances for GS to make money is the IR. For IR project, the resort and theme park sure will bring profit for GS, for casino business ler, if everything remain unchanged, it should be positive but if S'pore gov shows his mood, than will be another story.

For GS at this time, I prefer trade as a treader rather then an investor, if you look at the debt and -EPS, its already not in good situation (high risk), BUT!! I oso worried that will run chicken if all the things are heading positive. Btw, nothing you can get from the FA analysis now because GS is not doing any business now (the one and the only is in loss now *V*!) . Early next year, GS share price surely will up another round with the soft launching of IR, but don miss understand that the situation is getting better, this huge among of debt will need some year to be recovered.

The actual performance of GS only can be know after the IR start to operate. I will prepared to buy in some at anything below 0.68, hold until the 1st and 2nd Q after IR start to operate, then will decide what to do for the next step. I believe GS's share price will not come down to < 1 after IR start to operate.

Btw, i didn't buy in anything yet when she is below 0.65 last week because i not yet summarize all the info i have, now i think I'm ready to do that already. This GS is not same like AIG or Citi where US gov will not let them die, it have only the strong mother which is Genting Bhd, and Genting Bhd is control by our dear Mr. Lim now, you have to understand how Mr. Lim run his business, remember, not his father now. Wish me good luck *V*!!

Week of Market Correction - Ronan kena trap V

2009-06-23T10:19:00.003+08:00

Finally, Market correction lai liao!! i have half half for share and cash, how ar?? high risk bo??

On hand have KFIMA and RCECAP, both is in paper loss >10% now. so want to cut loss?? Hmm... i will hold and wait la, since i bot this 2 at PE <5, still consider reasonable value. once market stable they should able to recover, btw how bout those high PE stock, they should be kena more serious *V*!

Remember my AXIATA with PE >20?? today i will sold out all anything ~2.20, take profit 1st.

Summarize for the case i kena this trap:

I sold almost 85% of my share early last week because i worried the correction but then hor, i buy in again at the end of last week, even i know the market correction is around the corner but i'm still bot in, haha... i buy is because my tangan gatal la, worried that will run chicken if the correction not coming.

So infuture if this situation happen again, i will monitor more tight on my cash v share ratio, in a non conformal situation, try to make the C vs S ratio <30%, one hand i can fufill my greedy on the other hand can stand at the save place when the market correction come.. haha

My current cash v share ratio is 43:57 quite high d. i admit that i had been trap in this correction *V*!! hahahaha

Buy RCECAP at 0.560 (Avg down)

2009-06-22T16:57:00.005+08:00

Today done another round of sapu on RCECAP at 0.56, is this called catching the falling knife? So now finished my collect on RCECAP d, ~37% weight on RCECAP.

I'm checking what is the system called Asset-backed security (ABS), Fixed rate medium term notes and Revolving credits, anybody can advise me?

My current Cash v Share is 43% v 57%. will come for another round once market down below 1000. hehe *V*

Today Genting SP closed at 0.65.. com-on, further down la!!! i'm waiting u at <0.60 *V*!!

什么是成长股？怎样发掘成长股？

2009-06-21T21:00:00.000+08:00

>>>>>>>

2001-02-05 什么是成长股？怎样发掘成长股？

最近冷眼在南洋商报和我们分享他的多年投资经验，那就是 “反向成长”。它的意思就是：“ 选时要反向，选股要成长。”
可见成长股在投资组合里的重要性。
但是怎样发掘成长股呢？
在还没有回答这问题之前，让我们先来鉴定一下，怎样的股才可算成长股？

什么是成长股？
顾名思义，有成长的公司就是成长股。这题目表面看起来很简单，其实是很复杂的。让我举些例子：

第一个例子：
一间公司十年前的资金是20 million ，今天的资金是200 million ，它是不是成长股？
答：表面看起来它的资金从20 million 增加到200 million 是有增长了180 million 。但是还得看它所增加的资金是从何而来才可下定论。如果增加的资金是从附加股而来，它不算成长股。如果是赚回来的就算成长股。

第二个例子：
科技资源 (TRI) 经营的行业是大家公认成长最快的流动电话，英美烟草 (BAT) 经营的行业是香烟。请问那一间才是成长股？
答：BAT 过去三年的平均资金回酬 (ROE)是1.31 零吉，而TRI 是负0.40 零吉。所以BAT 才是成长股。
这样子的解释法很多人都不能明白，让我再用简单的方法来解释：
BAT 在过去三年，平均每1 零吉的资金每年可以赚1.31 零吉，而TRI 的每1 零吉资金每年却要亏0.40 零吉。所以BAT 才是成长股，TRI 却是负成长股。

第三个例子：
A ，B 两间公司的资金都是100 million, A公司每年赚20 million 而B 公司每年赚10 million 。如果他们每年都不发股息，过了10 年那一间才是高成长的公司？
答：当然是A 公司。过了10 年A 公司的资金是300 million ，而B 公司的资金只有200 million 。所以和B 公司比较，A 公司就是高成长的公司。

第四个例子：
C ，D 两间公司的资金都是100 million 。
C 公司每年赚20 million 而D 公司每年赚10 million 。
C 公司每年都把赚来的钱当做股息分发给股东，而D 公司从来都不发股息，过了十年，两间公司比较起来，那一间才是高成长的公司？
答：十年后，D 公司的资金是200 million ，而C 公司的资金还是100 million ，虽然D 公司比较大，但是C 公司才算高成长的公司。这十年里C 公司的资金虽然一样，但是它的股东却已经获得200 million 的股息，他们可以利用这股息再投资。(C 公司本身没有成长，它的股东却可成长。)

那么我们怎样发掘成长股呢？

我是用ROE 来发掘成长股。ROE 的中文译名是 “ 资金回酬 ”
每股净利EPS 除以每股净资产NTA ，就是资金回酬ROE 。
每只股票都可算出它的ROE ，ROE 越高的股票就是越好的成长股。
(但是用ROE 不能只看1 年，最好是看3 年平均或5 年平均。)

注：
ROE = Return On Equity
EPS divides by NTA = ROE
EPS = Earning Per Share
NTA = Net Tangible Asset

可能你会觉得ROE 很难明白，我再用简单的语文来解释：
ROE ＝ 0.20就是说；1.00 零吉的资金每年能赚0.20 零吉。
ROE ＝ 0.50就是说；1.00 零吉的资金每年能赚0.50 零吉。
所以ROE 越高就是越好的股票。

让我在举个例子：

大众银行2000 年的每股净利EPS 是0.30 零吉，而它的每股净资产NTA 是1.82 零吉。请问它的资金回酬ROE 是多少？
答：0.30 除以1.82 ＝0.16 ，所以它的ROE 就是0.16 。换言之，在2000 年，大众银行每1 零吉的资金可以赚0.16 零吉。( 或每年16% 的回酬)
不要小看这0.16 的ROE ，只要五年它就能使1 零吉变成2 零吉或开1 个番。
详解如下：
1.00 ＋ 16% = 1.16
1.16 ＋ 16% = 1.35
1.35 ＋ 16% = 1.56
1.56 ＋ 16% = 1.81
1.81 ＋ 16% = 2.10

总结：
1) 经营高成长的行业不一定就是成长股。
2) 通过合并成长的公司不能算真正的成长股。(公司成长，股东没有成长)
3) 通过发附加股成长的公司也不能算真正的成长股。(公司成长，股东没有成长)
4) 通过公司本身的赚钱能力而成长的公司才是真正的成长股。
5) ROE 高的股票就是高成长股。
6) ROE 低的股票就是低成长股。
7) 公司每年都把赚来的钱分发给股东，造成公司本身没有成长，这类股票也算成长股。(公司没有成长，股东却可成长。)

KLSE.8K..

<<<<<<<

Justfor sharing, read this from KLSE.8K's e-book.. *V*!

Buy RCECAP at 0.590

2009-06-19T18:47:00.002+08:00

Today only able to catch 60 lots at 0.59, cannot get another 40 at 0.58 to complete the plan. Actually there is a bit changes as i see that it is hard to get to below 0.55 in the morning. hmm.. so adjusted to bit higher target, i had miss out the chance to buy TGOFFS-WA at 0.705 because waiting it to drop to 0.68, so this time i bot a bit at 0.59 for RCECAP 1st. Unfortunately 0.58 oso cannot make it. O.k. la, let see monday how.

I also plan to buy TGOFFS-WA at 0.98 but too bad, no seller. but i don't understand why the price bounced back to 1.03 even though there are no buyer?! why har?!

RCECAP

2009-06-18T23:30:00.002+08:00

Just look into RCECAP, no doubt that their main business is providing loan to ppl who need it and they are smart because they are providing personal loans to government servants through strategic affiliation with credit cooperatives, where repayments are done via the Salary Deduction Scheme. Haha, at least the risk for the loan owner to "jiok chou" is low because they work in goverment sector ma.. hahaha *V*!!

From latest Q report, around 84% of the profit is comming from financial loan & 12% coming from investment and holding management. Since they are doing financial loan, so the fix asset is low, because they no need machine, unless they have to print ringgit la.. haha.. On the other hand, figure in financial activities is high as u can see at the long term investment amount and long term borrowing amount.

Latest figure on balence sheet shows that the cash/deposit is 214M and the current Liabilities is 346M for RCECAP. Have to make sure that they receive the payment from the loan consistenly so that at the end of the year they can cover the total of the current liabiities. the delta for cash and liabilities is 132M and the loan & trade receivables at date is 146M, quite tight huh?! luckly they loan payment terms is by salary deduct scheme. 1 question to ask, did RCECAP also giving personal loan to non-government servants that do not have the repayments through the Salary Deduction Scheme?? this is important rite?!

Financial wise should not be a problem if they maintain to receive the consistant payment from the scheme. The only remaining concern is the 1 question that i ask my self lol.

In terms of the performance wise, the RoE for this company are as below:
26.16 (06), 49.77(07), 27.4(08), and the latest 22.3(09)

My understanding from this figure is when the market is good (07-08), the consumer force will be strong and more ppl is applying loan to spend. other point is the RoE performance will be more or less maintain at it is ( in this case i would say is >20) because the payment from the loan any how have to be done (more over through salary deduction scheme!!) regardless of market situation -> crash or not crash (i believe the loan that provided by RCECAP is calculated in the term of year, need to confirm!!). So i would expect that we may only see the effect of the resent market tsunami on the RoE after next few quarter, agree? but 1 think strange is th e revenue is increasing for RCECAP! mean more ppl is applying loan in this kind of market. strange!!!

For others important ratio such as current ratio, the latest figure is 1.08, only slightly above 1, not so good lo. Debt to Cap. ratio is 0.68, as comparable to pas few years performance which is around 0.7+.

So for current RCECAP price at 0.585, converted to Pe with latest EPS 2.60 sen, assume the same earning in coming 4 quarter, the forward EPS estimated to be at 10.4 sen, the PE will be at 5.63. quite low lol..

To enter RCECAP, the risk will be focus on how strong the company is able to retrave the schaduled payment from the loan stably and how to further improve the current ratio as i can see the current debt is ngam ngam can be cover by all her current asset (with the cash on-hand, RCECAP are not able to cover it curent liabilities lol). Anyhow, since the loan payment will be made through salary deduction scheme and the target of the customer is from goverment sector, i think this had minimized the risk for this bat to lower stage.

My plan is:
- Will allocate not more then 30% from my capital on RCECAP.
- Price to enter, i will follow SAM's call and start to collect stage by stage with anything below 0.55.

I'm thinking whether should i wait for Monday *V*!!! hahaha... Time to sleep..

Eyes on the market 2

2009-06-18T00:35:00.003+08:00

Few counter is under my monitoring radar, will look at the performance in this coming few days. Expect high selling force in coming few days lol, then is the time to grab good stock with cheaper price. *V*

So they are from few sectors: OnG, Steel and Consumer prod. Let see, but until now most of them still quite high in the price. As usual, RCECAP by SAM oso in the list. wakakaka.

Have to tell my self, don't simply buy because want to buy. Some time i feel boring if not holding any stock on hand (or maybe cash ratio is too high!! hehe *V*). So need to be very careful before jump in again. Of cause i'm not planning to hold more then 5 counters on hand in 1 time, it is hard for me to monitor, very tired lol because i cannot leave the counter there after buy and come back to check it out after few month, arh!! so i'm not the investor and is a trader?!! hahaha. So my up coming plan is:

To focus on the 2 highest potential counter and 80% full load. hehe, high risk lol...

Today Genting SP pump up to 0.675 d. sian.... still thinking whether wanna Q at 0.65 or not *V*!

Sell all YTLPOWR-WB at 0.950

2009-06-16T20:00:00.006+08:00

Today disposed all YTLPOWR-WB at 0.950.

Don't want to wait d as the market is turning down now, if i not disposed now, then maybe have to wait for the next round d, to play save, i sacrifice the chance from the booster by the dividend payment and new project biting results. btw, who know it is a chance or curse?? haha,自我安慰. Any how, I think if the market going down in coming few weeks, i should able to buy it back at anything <0.90.

As for AXIATA, will sell out tomorrow at anything around 2.35, haha, possible?? any how, i already have >20% profit from it based on current price.

Up coming plan:

Genting SP coming down d, today close at 0.65 SGD. Need to do quite some homework on it as this will be a stock for double up, tripper up .... in coming 1 yr especially when it started to operate the Sentosa casino!! yeah!!!

Will start to buy in if it drops to below 0.60. but how i'm going to collect the Genting SP? i not yet planned, will do it soon. Thanks SAM for reminding me about the chicken that going to give us golden egg *V*!!.

Sell all PANTECH at 0.895

2009-06-13T01:20:00.003+08:00

Disposed all my PANTECH at 0.895.

Feel not comfortable to hold it anymore since the crude oil price hit 72+ USD d.. Initially plan to sell along the raise, but after she hit 0.94 on Tuesday, until now she is not showing her intensity to moving up lol. Today start to heading downward d with high selling pressure, not really sure it is force selling or what but it seem like no more pushing power.

Haha, cabut 1st lo, i have to be more clear on what i'm doing. How bout if next Monday market keep on go up and tonight crude oil naik lagi?? haha.. will buy back anything below 0.84 cts with stable condition, of cause with reasonable 人和 factors.

Stock on hand and strategy:

1) YTLPOWR-WB
==> Will continue hold until the date around dividend expired date (28/6) and bangla project tender results is out (not sure which date yet). I feel more comfortable with YTLPOWR-WB because she can stand on market falling and more stable *V*!!

2) KFIMA
==> Hold, same reason as when i buy in, low PE, low debt, volume is high but price not moving.

O.K. time to read some article. *V*!

如何解開散戶屢買屢套的魔咒

2009-06-11T22:30:00.003+08:00

http://tolitoqi.blogspot.com/2008/10/blog-post.html

>>>>>>>

‧帆船手 2008/06/30

如果以散戶投資人買股票時最常選用的方法來做個分門別類，價值分析當屬其中的最大宗，然後技術分析次之，心理分析再次之。毫無疑問的，價值分析最受到歡迎，至於心理分析則恐怕連「門派」都稱不上。然而台股這波慘跌下來，受傷最慘重亦是價值分析派，技術分析派次之，而心理分析派則多半卻能夠逃過一劫。

這三種分析工具的運用全憑個人，其實很難就其好壞分出高下。但是對於大多數的散戶投資人而言，這三種工具於使用上的難易程度卻是極其分明的：散戶投資人多半認為價值分析最為明確簡單好用，技術分析太過複雜，至於心理分析則完全不知該如何運用。散戶以上的認知明顯存有盲點，依我的看法，我倒認為價值分析的工程最為浩大，層次也最高，我甚至認為這是資本家才玩得起的遊戲；至於技術分析則是功力見高低，的確是複製了點；再至於心理分析就再單純不過了，只須儘管違反自己的心意就對了。

事實上，問題出在散戶一直都未把買賣股票的本質作出清楚的定義，是「投資」還是「交易」於事先沒有定調；或者說從頭至尾都沒有誠實的對待過自己，買進股票賺了就當成交易，賠了就當是投資。據我所瞭解，別說是散戶，就連主力大戶都一樣，是沒有人在一開始就抱著投資打算的，「投資」是不得已的事，若在買進股票後已有所斬獲，沒有人會笨到去當公司的股東等著領配息。因此長期當股東只是下下策，那只是在套牢後不得不的選擇！

也因此在買進股票時，就會把公司的「價值」因素列為買進策略的最優先考量，因為這至少可做為買進失利後的最後灘頭堡，這樣在做買進決策的當下，感覺就會覺得扎實多了----萬一買進後即使被套也無須太過擔心，因為價格最終一定會來反應這個「價值」的；就算沒有，每年等著領配息，總有一天還是可以解套的。

於是價值分析法普遍為散戶所樂用，價值分析派的投資人當然也就在市場大行其道，並佔為最大族群。這種現象對那種向來被媒體吹捧的投資大師看在眼裡，不啻是有利可圖的大好機會，於是乎這些大師就投其所好，迎合其口味，開口價值閉口亦是價值的，若剛好遇到市場處在明顯的多頭時，這些大師就可受到虔誠地膜拜，也因此使得大師的名氣更加響亮，同時也更加使得這些散戶對價值分析這一套方法深信不疑。可惜好景不長，風雲變色後，目前國內最出名的三大價值名師已成為經常被某投資論壇拿來冷嘲熱諷的對象。在我看來，他們的確是很擅長畫大餅，唬得信徒如癡如醉的。

為什麼我會說散戶存有屢買屢套的魔咒呢？

那是因為習慣以「價值因素」為首要考量，因而買進股票的時機都傾向選擇在價格下跌時，在自認為價值高於價格時，因此在買進時態度從容，完全沒有後顧之憂，下跌的幅度越大就越有信心。（KLSE.8K Investment style on Megan??)

不可否認的，這種買股票的方法運用在漲漲跌跌的多頭市場，有時確實是挺管用的，但一旦碰到長時間連續下跌的空頭市場來臨時，恐怕就會屍骨無存了！雖有「價值的神主牌」護身，但最好祈求老天保佑，所買進的股票真的物超所值，真的是價值非凡，否則將來是怎樣離開市場的，都不知道！

然而如何才能解開屢買屢套的魔咒？首先你得抬起頭，然後將眼光的焦點放在高處，順著趨勢買進市場當前最強的強勢股，但若市場當前的強勢股從缺時，就算你不習慣去作空，但也請不要以搶便宜的心態貿然去買進市場的弱勢股。學習這套交易模式並不是很難，但要克服先天上人性的弱點卻十分困難，通常只有那些曾經在市場上吃過大虧的人，並在經過痛定思痛以及大澈大悟之後，才能開始具備獨立思考的能力，才可通過內心天人交戰般的拉扯考驗，才敢逆著自己的心意反群眾之道而行。這個魔咒不是別人所下的降頭，而是跟隨人性早已自我存在了，因此想要解開這個魔咒你也無法請求別人代勞，僅能憑藉自己的意志去加以克服而已。

<<<<<<<<

New things for me!! i don't know that there is a method called 心理派!!

To be honest, I'm not an investor, more like a trader.. haha, so why i need to go through so deep in the company performance? (unless i'm going to hold the counter for >3 years where this will not happen on me atleast for now *V*).

I think what i should do is:

1) Look at the company resent performance (2 -3 yrs) to identify the management behavior and the business of the company as well as current PE (地利).

2) Analysis on the market trend of the business that the company involve as well as the stage of the stock market --> bull / bear or flat or fluctuation..... (天时).

3) Sensitive to market news, share volume, country politic... (人和).

4) To apply 反向思考 during disposal of share on hand！！
* This is extreamly hard because i have to overcome my human nature, greedy!!

Haha.. I'm trying to prove the above method so that i'm not just talking non sense here.. *V*!!

勿被情緒左右‧不做“市場先生”

2009-06-10T12:41:00.005+08:00

Found this on ck5354's blog, nice to read and understand *V*!!

>>>>>>>

人們有時說，要做個智慧投資者，就必須不被情緒所左右。但這不是事實﹔相反，你應當逆情緒而行。

即便在近期市場動盪之後，道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數仍較3月份低點上漲了30%左右。你自然會對此感到開心或釋然。但本傑明‧格拉漢姆（Benjamin Graham）卻認為，你應當訓練自己對此類狀況感到憂慮。

在這種時候，求教格拉漢姆的智慧顯得尤為合適。

60 年前的1949年5月25日，這位金融分析的始祖出版了他的《智慧投資者》（The Intelligent Investor）一書，本專欄也是為了向這本書致敬而得名的。現在市場似乎正處於格拉漢姆當初擔憂的那種情緒：戰戰兢兢的樂觀、不安全感以及幾乎無可救藥地相信市場已經觸底。

應該逆情緒行動

當然，你不能抹殺自己的感覺。但你可以，也應該逆情緒行動。

Heath Heingardner股票突然變得更加昂貴起來。根據耶魯大學教授席勒（Robert Shiller）的數據，自3月份以來，標準普爾500指數的市盈率已經從13.1倍飆升到了15.5倍，為將近25年來最大也是最快的升幅。（如格拉漢姆所建議的，席勒採用的是經通貨膨脹因素調整後的10年平均市盈率。）在10週的時間裡，股票已經從逢低買盤的邊遠走向了實價買賣。因此，除非你已經退休，並靠投資過活，否則你就不應該對此感到慶祝，你應該感到擔憂。

格拉漢姆努力防止自己被捲入“市場先生”的情緒波動－－即隨著股市走高而興奮，隨著股市走低而低落。“市場先生”是他對投資者集體情緒的比喻。

在一篇自傳短文中，格拉漢姆寫到，他認為無欲無求的哲學如同來自天堂的福音。他還說，自己心境的主要構成包括了“靜定超然”以及“心如止水”。

格拉漢姆的最後一個妻子形容他“高尚，但非凡人”。我曾經問格拉漢姆的兒子這是甚麼意思。小格拉漢姆說自己的父親“心不在焉”，在跟其他人打交道的時候的確有些障礙。小格拉漢姆解釋道，他總是在心裡想著很多事情。如果投資者有這種距離感或是超然感的話，或許尤其適合於此道。

格拉漢姆曾經說過，他對文學、數學和哲學的浸淫有助於他以永恒而非日常的觀點去看待市場。

或許正因為如此，格拉漢姆才幾乎不變地將其他人的狂熱視為黃色的警示信號，而在別人的哀嘆中卻能看到希望之光。

多次忠告投資者

得益於逆情緒而行的心得，格拉漢姆每每總是能發現市場何時走到臨界點。1945年底的時候，市場上漲了36%，他警告投資者要減持股票﹔次年股市下挫8%。在1958－59年股市好轉時，格拉漢姆再次重彈悲觀老調﹔其後股市投資收益連年起伏。1971年底，就在數十年來最大熊市來襲之前，格拉漢姆忠告投資者要保持警惕。

1974年底股市處於水深火熱之中的時候，格拉漢姆在一次演說中準確地預見到股價可能會在很多年內萎靡不振。

危機亦是轉機

然後他又語驚四座地說這是個好消息。格拉漢姆解釋道，想到自己能夠將未來的新積蓄以非常令人滿意的條件進行投資，真正的投資者會感到高興而不是沮喪。

格拉漢姆還提出了一個更令人吃驚的說法：投資者可以把握長期熊市的“大好時機”獲利，這樣的運氣好得令人羡慕。

現在宣佈“購入持有策略已死”已經成為了流行。

一些批評人士甚至認為平均成本投資（每個月自動投資固定金額）是種愚蠢的做法。

格拉漢姆曾被問及平均成本投資是否能確保長期投資成功，他在1962年寫道，只要在各種狀況干擾下都能堅定不移地保持下去，那麼無論何時開始實施，這一策略最終都將帶來回報。

但他說，如果要做到這點，平均成本投資者必須要與其他人不同，不屈從於過去幾十年間伴隨股市起伏波動而交替變化的狂喜和沮喪情緒。

格拉漢姆總結道，我對此表示極大懷疑。

他並不是說，沒有人可以不受眾人的情緒波動影響，他的意思是很少有人能夠做到這點。要成為一個智慧投資者，你必須培養格拉漢姆所說的“堅定性格”――掌控自己情緒的能力。

總而言之，這就是要在股市突然上漲的時候，抵擋住“市場先生”狂熱情緒的傳染。

星洲日報／投資致富／投資風向球‧2009.06.08

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I'm thinking that for the Crude Oil stock, recently too many good news had shows up in the media. Demand increase, supply reduced by Mid East country, recovery of the economy where else in our country, we have the corporation between Petronas and others O & G company to expend their business to dig more oil at india sea and Bla Bla Bla.... After all this news floating up, should we trade the market in the opposite way??

Price of Crude oil had re-bounced 100% from the lowest price in early this year (35 USD PBR) and its only takes 2 - 3 months, will it come too fast?? Even though the demand is increasing and assumed that the market is recovered, the 70 USD of crude oil should be the fair price only in a stable market. Do you think the market is stable now? Most of the company hit by the economy tsunami badly in the end of 08 and early of 09, will they recovered so fast and back to position in 2 - 3 months time?? As per normal understanding, the 70 USD for crude oil should be the fair price for a health market, but now as we all know the market is not yet back to the position and the oil price already hit the position in advance, what this mean??

There is a theory saying that the share market will reflect the global economy 6-7 months earlier. Well!! i would rather play safe now. hahaha. cheer!!

Updated Blog Template V!!!

2009-06-09T23:11:00.002+08:00

Dear all, I had updated my blog template, so please don't think that you had come into another blog oh... the black template feel not comfortable, feel very pressure.. so this 1 i feel better.. haha.. hope you enjoy like me too... haha *V*!!

勤做功課為何投資報酬率不佳？—破解股市迷思23

2009-06-08T23:46:00.003+08:00

2009/03/25 23:20:53

＜勤做功課為何投資報酬率不佳？—破解股市迷思23＞

經常有偏愛股票投資的朋友，認為只要勤做功課，就一定能戰勝股市，因此，這些朋友不是努力閱讀財務報表，就是勤看財經新聞，要不然，就是花時間分析大盤與個股的技術分析走勢圖。但論結果，仍然不脫「賠錢」兩字。

勤做功課的朋友，有時候，往往虧損幅度還遠高於不愛做功課的人。諸如有些「傻人有傻福」型的投資人，買進了一檔股票，日子久了也忘了，忽然有一天，發現股價竟然漲了好幾倍，一開心，賣掉股票，換算持有期間的年報酬率，平均也有兩位數以上的表現。

花時間做功課的投資績效，卻輸給不花時間的人？這往往是股海常態，也常常讓有心人為之氣結。更嘔人的是，花時間挑了檔基本面好、財報漂亮的績優股，卻又眼看著投機股活蹦亂跳，而好股票的股價文風不動，真的也挺讓人傷心又難過。

但話說回來，勤做功課，就代表投資的報酬率就該增加嗎？

我覺得這根本是一個迷思，是投資人誤以為投資像考試，只要花時間讀書，就會考出好成績。但投資並非考試，為何努力做功課，就必然代表成績要好呢？更何況，讀書要有效率，要讀通、讀懂內容，考試才能拿冠軍，但有多少人搞通或搞懂投資股票的遊戲規則呢？

在投資市場上，常常看到許多朋友對於股票投資的獲利方法有哪幾種？都搞不清楚，就一味的砸錢買股票，自然產生東施效顰、啼笑皆非的效果。

舉例來說，投資人研究公司的基本面、財務報表，按理應該看重的是公司獲利能力，以及其盈餘是否能成為明年分紅的本錢。更內行與專業的投資人，要分析的則是公司長期穩定經營模式，以及創造長期現金收益的能力。這些是作為投資人是否要長期投資該檔股票，並藉以取得股利股息的關鍵因素。

但偏偏，許多基本面型投資人，不但要求公司獲利績效要浮現，更期盼其股價能提前反映未來獲利，在短時間內必須產生股價驚驚漲的效應。也就是說，長期分紅想要拿，短期資本利得也要取，兩頭都想兼顧，自然兩頭都顧不好。

再舉例來說，研究技術分析型的投資人，看重的應該是股價短期內上漲的可能性，但偏偏，為了擔心股價萬一漲不動時的風險，乾脆事前退而求其次，瞄準最壞仍要有股利股息可領的標的，因此選擇財報較佳、有利多題材的個股來投資。

結果發現，虧損累累的轉機型公司漲翻天，基本面佳的個股，卻漲個兩三天就逢高獲利回吐，發生利多出盡而慘遭高點套牢的現象。甚至，這些投資人將來的長期殖利率，還遠遜於短期股價下跌損失，可謂得不償失。

費心研究股市，努力鑽研財經新聞，或者用心看一家公司的財報或技術指標，這些都沒有錯，但問題往往出在，投資要得「法」，要掌握正確的方法，才有可能取得良好的投資績效。

投資的方法不對，在基本面上做技術面功夫，或在技術線型上做財報面功課，都會產生格格不入的績效不彰現象。又或者說，長期投資人卻跑去做短線投機，短線投機人又想玩長期投資，中途變換投資方針與方向，自然更是股票投資時的大忌。

做什麼，就該像什麼！想要長期投資績優股者，看重的既然是長期獲利表現，就應該對股價短期起伏，無所介懷。反過來說，既然著眼的是股價短期的漲跌，那麼，基本面虧損的公司，又何損於其會漲的利空出盡氣勢呢？

因為投資不是長期、短期，或基本面、技術面這樣簡單的分野而已，介於這些煢煢大範疇間的交叉組合與排列方式，不知凡幾，所以，更加使得投資人踏入股票投資領域後，會發生眼花撩亂，無所適從之感。

更何況，股市多頭時期、空頭時期，以及多頭初升段、主升段、末升段，和空頭的不同階段，市場會漲的、會跌的類股，又各有其特色，這種時間長軸中的不同特性之類股輪番表現，更加深了投資人想要靠單一之方法獲利的難度。

既然股票投資獲利難有單一、簡易之法，是否代表獲利就不可行呢？當然也非如此悲觀。因時制宜，以自己之不變，隨機應變股市無時無刻之變，可說是投資股市的最高指導原則，也是遊戲規則。

投資人與其花時間勤做功課，不如在勤做功課前，先掌握好股海投資應具備的觀念、態度與準備，才有可能把時間花在刀口上，取得輕鬆、愉快、甚至不勞而獲之投資佳績。

王志鈞

>>>>>

I think it is true. From my visit to most of the investment blog, there are mainly 2 groups, one groups of ppl will do a deep analysis on the company (deep means go until few year performance as well as each of the company activities and management team). And another group are focusing more on the market situation and selecting company based on recent or 1 to 2 year performance as well as share price concerning.

For me, both of it is work for money earning, if the company is extremely good but the situation is bad, you may need more time to get return (you have 地利 but no 天时& 人和). On the other hand, if the situation is correct and the company is good or even fair (we are not going to discuss bad company here because i still cannot accept bad company with good investment return *V*!) you may have 天时，地利，人和 all 3 of them, sure you will get your return faster but you have to pay more attention to the share / market performance.

If we talk about which 1 will give the maximum return? hmm... i would say both of tham can make a maximum return, only depends on how expert you to move with Mr. Market. haha

as per above article:

股市多頭時期、空頭時期，以及多頭初升段、主升段、末升段，和空頭的不同階段，市場會漲的、會跌的類股，又各有其特色，這種時間長軸中的不同特性之類股輪番表現，更加深了投資人想要靠單一之方法獲利的難度。

Try to look for the one that suit to me *V*!

http://blog.udn.com/solon8888/2782723

Buy KFIMA at 0.685

2009-06-08T13:28:00.004+08:00

Bot KFIMA today at 0.685.

With latest 4th Q EPS 6.43, KFIMA closed the latest financial year with total EPS 17.7, with the share price of 0.685, the past PE stands at3.87, and the forward PE 6.43 x 4 =25.72; PE = 2.67!! NTA = 1.27, RoE = 13.94.

Let’s look at the latest quarter report which is the Q4.

If we compare present Q with last Q (Q3), what we see is the revenue is decreased from 100M to 76.6M but yet the net profit is increased from 13.85M to 26.22M. This caused by the decrease of the cost of sale for Q4 from 70M to 36.5M. Decrease of 25% in revenue but cost of sale decreased almost X1 (why??), no wander the profit for this quarter still better the Q3 *V*! If compared YTY, the revenue had increased as shows in SAM's blog which is from 309M to 368M. Not bad not bad!! Quarter EPS increased from 3.61 to 6.43 (Q3) and YTY had increased from 11.51 to 17.70. Look back to the history, NTA for KFIMA is increasing from 0.95 (06), 1.05 (07), 1.09 (08) and 1.27 (09). RoE is a bit >10% for year 07 and 08 and 09 is 13.94%.

For balance sheet, in term of Asset, not much change compared to last quarter and also compared to last financial year. 1 point to highlight is the trade receivables for KFIMA is 104M for latest financial year and it is increasing from 2007 ( 52.8M), 2008 (82.89M) and present 104M but the trade payable is quite stable ~5+M each year. hmm... any how, from QTQ, it is improving "a bit" from 109M to 104M compared to past Q. Let see how it will go in future (quite sensitive with these trade receivable and payable because of the MEGAN case. haha)

For Liabilities, both long and short term borrowing had decreased compared to last year. Is this mean KFIMA is not planning to expend or the management only plan to use what they have now to expend the company?? Other then that all are quite stable compared to last financial year. Some others key ratio for KFIMA: Current ratio = 1.26 D/E ratio = 0.07!! (Is it too low?)

For cash flow statement, what i can think of is the inventory is higher compared to last year. What this mean?

From the note, the profit increased mainly due to the contribution from each of the segment where else the increase in revenue compared to last year is mainly due to the contribution from the plantation segment. Hmm, she is not really making profit from the plantation segment huh?! haha. Any how, KFIMA is started to expend the Biochemical oil palm oil. Since 2007 and this should increase her profit.

Look back to the 天时地利人和, This stock was discovered by Neoguga, from SAM's blog and look at what he says:

>>>>>>

Neoguga said...

Just did some research on some companies and from my point of view i think it's a value to buy company to me.

From you Sun Tze Art of War tactic :-

KFIMA

Tien sir : Investment holding company with exposure to plantation. (oil palm)

Dili : Low PE (5.60 from RHB) + improved qe earning of 6.43eps

Ren Her : Volume also increasing but not as powerful as RCECAP.

So sifu, how is my application of your Sun Tzu Art of War? ^^

June 3, 2009 12:28 AM

<<<<<< So?

Lets try another example on KFIMA whether this 天时地利人和 tactic is workable or not in the share market *V*!

I will not holding long on KFIMA because i don't understand why they arenot borrowing money for expend. So once profit seen then will cabut.. haha.. I'm not yet a long term investor, at least not with KFIMA. *V*!!

Btw, thanks to 8year, your books really teach me a lot especially in financial analysis, but i still got a lot to learn as you can see that not much info i can understand from KFIMA financial results. *V*!

What i learn from <舉債來投資 MEGAN 值得嗎?>

2009-06-07T17:37:00.001+08:00

Just finish 1 part of the KLSE.8K E-book which is the intersting part ==> 舉債來投資 MEGAN 值得嗎 ?.

Many ppl who invest in Bursa Malaysia surely know that who is this "MEGAN"!! what a big superstar. MEGAN famous with her super low PE and very good NTA, RoE and EPS, but the big mystery is why her share price keep on dropping while the company is making profit every year?!

It is really a lot of info and analysis done by 8K and others investor where they noted down in the e-book. this hand note really shows a good example of stock with good PE, NTA, and RoE not necessary a good company. For a long term investors and you are only looking at the paper work shows by the company, with this MEGAN case really can hurt you a lot!!!

What i learn from this article are:

1) Other then the financial results provided by the company, we should also sensitive to each of the activities from the management team.

In this case, Most of the share disposition activities by Mr. Yeo's already give a big hint of the thunder storm, but we are still keep on holding the point of low PE (with PE 2 for a counter in a bull market, for me is extremely abnormal!) and high NTA just because we are referring to the history of the market (in this article, the example is GAMUDA where her biggest share holder soled most of her share but GAMUDA share price moving up afterward). Is not to say that not good when we are referring to the pass market history but we should also treat each case differently. Any how, why unker 8K still keep on holding MEGAN is because he strongly believe that it is a chance to maximize the profit with super low PE (~2) in this big bull market (2007).

2) Extreme high trade receivables and extreme low trade payable, not healthy to a company as it may suffer if they have problem to chase back all the receivable. The ratio of reveiveble and payable should be under consideration as well. But regarding what ratio is the best?? i also don know, but i will find it out.

Above is what i gain from the article. For Unker 8K, he is looking for maximum return in bull market, some says that he is nothing different then 投机 because he is not looking serious into some abnormal activities of the company，but he explain that he is holding strong on MEGAN is because of her low PE and high RoE, it is not simply holding because of low prices in bull market. Btw, he also mention that he is able to take the risk even a lot of signal showing that there are something happen at behind for MEGAN, (such as extream low PE but with continuous good operation performance from 2004 until 2007; abnormal share trading by management / main share holder; abnormal in trade receivables and trade payable ratio).

Well, i would says that this is 8K's investment method, he have his own reason to keep on holding MEGAN, that's why this become a hot discussion in the Cari forum in 2006 and 2007. For me, 8K is applying the thinking against the major population (反向思考）for his stock pick, that is also why he still holding MEGAN when most of the people is having bad feeling with MEGAN. maybe that is also the reason why MEGAN share price is at low all the time because many people looking at MEGAN's week point. Any how, if MEGAN is reporting the real situation of the company with good profit and low PE, by long term holding it, the return will be very very huge! but really we can find such a company that will give extremely low PE with very good RoE, NTA and EPS in a super bull market??

soled all Annjoo-wb at 0.51

2009-06-05T20:40:00.003+08:00

Today soled all my annjoo-wb at 0.51.. huh... how lucky am i, i had been mentally suffered by it for 3 weeks d. why?? because she is out-money!! premium ~50% when i buy. Now relax la, don't care any more even she keep on shooting up to the moon.. wakaka, you may say that i 卖错价钱就自我安慰，to be honest, i'm glad that i had soled out annjoo-wb this high risk warrant based on my原则(which i already violated at the 1st place when i buy in annjoo-wb) ^V^!

Why i buy it since it is high risk??
>> Two word ==> 想投机，贪心!! (1st wrong!!)

Why i didn't cut loss and disposed it after i regret??
>> Expired date at 2013, 4 more years to go, may still got chance to climb back. (you see!! i'm gambling!!! 2nd wrong!!)

Why i disposed at 0.51 and didn't wait for a bit since the volumn is comming??
>> Because i don't want to continue my gambling intension!! so that i'm not doing 3 mistake in one trading (i already have 2.. haha)

Am i doing the rite decision to dispose all at 0.51?? For me it is damn rite!!

When you facing this situation, you may continue to hold and by chance and luck, you "maybe" can sell at highest price. but i'm not going this way, i have to correct myself by not involve in this kind of trading!! what a horrible 3 weeks when holding Annjoo-wb.. haha

Buy PANTECH at 0.78

2009-06-02T23:14:00.006+08:00

As per previous post, bot PANTECH at 0.78 for 80 lots

EPS = 15.94 sen, convert to PE ~5, NTA = RM2.64

Latest Financial report:

Current ratio = 2.21, is improving ~4% yearly since 2006

RoE = 25.83, consider high if compare within the industry, so as RoA & RoC (info from The Star and BusinessWeek)

Debt to Cap % = 0.37, is <0.5 and is improving compare to 2007

Dividend Yield = 2.56%

Solid huh?! lately purchased a land at Pasir Gudang JB for business expend, o.k. la, got expend means got forcas for future earning ma ^V^ haha.

Interms of 天时，地利，人和, i already have the 天时 and 地利 (O & G theam for this year and solid FA)！！人和 (volumn + news & dividend announcement) is comming soon!! haha..

To be honest, stock pick by SAM in the industry is really "chun" as yesterday i try to look for others under perform O & G counter, as you know, only left PANTECH, and PENERGY. Another gam PETRA is too high for me and DAYANG still new are not my cup of tea lol..

Sum: I buy PANECH because she meet the criteria of 天时，地利，人和!!

My think of O & G stock

2009-06-01T18:07:00.006+08:00

Disposed all LEADER at 0.67, plan to switch to O & G stock since Genting SP is not coming down to SGD 0.6+, haha, funny thing is LEADER shot up to 0.72 after i dispose it. Hmm.. nvm la, is your money then is yours, if it is not yours, then i won come even you wait.

Ok, today i'm trying to look for ONG counter that still worth to buy, as you see in the attachment, most of the ONG stock PE >10, below 10 we have EPIC, PETRA, PENERGY, DELEUM, SAPCRES, PANTECH, SUMATEC and DAYANG. So, this is it. which 1 can be keep ler??

For SAPCRES, SUMATEC & DAYANG, price almost hit the year high d. so i say out!

The rest is EPIC, PETRA, PENERGY, DELEUM & PANTECH, which 1 is the best?

DELEUM currently no volumn after the 2nd shot up from 1.4+ to 1.6+ last week, temperary will not considered.

PETRA start to move today, but i have limited capital, sien :(

EPIC volumn already up since last Friday and today have not much to go. the price also increased for the 2nd round since 11 May

I left PENERGY and PANTECH,

PENERGY having low volumn resently and haven't move up since all ONG already move for 2nd round, low volumn with PE ~8.6, year high ~2.4, still have ~29% room to move.

PANTECH pula, volumn start to pick up, already rised for 2nd round, low PE ~5, year high 0.9, still have 16% room to move.

Ah!! which 1 to choose??

As per 天时，地利，人和, both having same 天时&地利 ( PANTECH slidely better with PE ~5 oni) but for 人和, we should consider PENERGY which is not yet pass her 2nd raise but with low volumn or PANTECH which is already done the 2nd rise but with volumn pick up??

Or make it simple! for PENERGY, although there are room for moving up but don know when (Coz no volumn). For PANTECH, volumn up means it will move soon even with oni 16% room (this is base on year high price), some more PE lower at ~5 nia.

hmm.. will bot PANTECH tomorrow ^V^!

Two shareholders sell 854m shares in Genting Singapore

2009-05-27T23:32:00.002+08:00

SINGAPORE: Two shareholders in Genting Singapore have sold a total of some 854 million shares in the gaming firm at 72 cents a share.

Golden Hope and Lakewood sold the shares to raise some S$615 million.

Bucking the overall upward trend of the local market, Genting Singapore's share price fell about 17 per cent to 72 cents in mid-afternoon trade.

The sudden price fall has prompted a query from the Singapore Exchange.

In response, Genting Singapore said it received the confirmation of the share disposals at about 12.30pm on Wednesday.

Genting Singapore said three substantial shareholders have sold a total of 1.18 billion of the company's shares.

Earlier, Dow Jones Newswires reported that Genting's founder, Lim Goh Tong, had sold a nine per cent stake, or 854 million shares, in the firm at 72 cents a share.

Genting Singapore, formerly known as Genting International, is opening a massive integrated resort in Sentosa next year.

- CNA/yt

<<<<<<<

Genting SP today close price at SGD 0.71 dropped 0.15 cts.. wow.. Soon i will have a look on the Q report, will consider to swish over my Leader and Annjoo-WA to her if the price is around 0.65.. lets look at the Q report 1st..!!!

YTL Power shows signs of recovery

2009-05-25T12:41:00.004+08:00

YTL Power shows signs of recovery

Written by Financial Daily

Monday, 25 May 2009 11:37

ALTHOUGH YTL Power International Bhd (YTL Power) posted weaker third quarter (3Q) results last week, its performance in the remaining quarter of FY09 would see improvements on the strengthening of the British pound as well as full-quarter contribution from its Singapore power generator PowerSeraya Ltd, MIMB Investment Bank Research said.

“We expect a better 4Q on the back of full-quarter contribution from PowerSeraya and the strengthening of the pound. All in, we have trimmed our FY09 estimates by 13% due to a change in foreign exchange (forex) assumption.

“We have also incorporated four months’ PowerSeraya earnings forecasts into our model. Besides, we also introduce our FY10-FY11 estimates where earnings are expected to grow 17% on-year and 4% on-year respectively, backed by PowerSeraya earnings,” it said.

The research house revised its target price to RM2.10/revised net asset value (RNAV) from RM1.82/RNAV as it rolled over its valuation base to FY10 from FY09. It maintained its neutral stance on YTL Power.

YTL Power saw net profit for its third quarter ended March 31, 2009 (3Q09) fall 20% on-year to RM221.4 million from RM277.6 million. Quarter-on-quarter, earnings improved by 3% due to better profits from its water business and new power earnings from PowerSeraya. Earnings per share for the same period was 3.81 sen compared with 5.25 sen previously.

Revenue was up 27% to RM1.35 billion from RM1.06 billion. An interim dividend of 3.75 sen, payable on July 16, 2009, was declared.

For the nine months to March 31, net income was 18.6% lower at RM616.8 million from RM758.2 million, while revenue was up 5% on-year to RM3.26 billion from RM3.1 billion. The research firm said YTL Power’s earnings for the nine months accounted for 60% and 58% of house’s and street’s FY09 estimates, respectively.

“Power generation reported a 151% on-quarter surge in 3Q revenue to RM725.3 million while earnings before interest, tax rose 28% on-quarter as a result of earnings inclusion from the newly acquired PowerSeraya beginning March 6, 2009. There were no surprises from local independent power producers (IPPs),” it said.

This article appeared in The Edge financial Daily, May 25, 2009.

=========================================================

So so so, looks like my YTLPOWR-WB will be safe, haha... looking forward for better earning. yeah!!

Buy In Leader (Recormanded by Uncle SAM)

2009-05-23T15:42:00.007+08:00

For last week review, I had brought in 100 lots of Leader with avg. price of 0.66, quite high huh ^V^! Reason: low PE (oni 3.+) and looking forward to the company future.

From the latest Quarter report for year 2008, overall this company still making profit (business for wire and cable drop but compensated by the growth of power energy business). In term of cash and debt, the current ratio had improved, overall is in health position.

As per future earning, They have quite some project on-going for the wire and cable division, i would expect the profit contribution from W&C will recover soon as there are a lots of project announced by gov lately. For Power Energy division, it also give a positive sign where the main contribution from Cambodia project will expect to keep on making profit for her. Another division which is the properties, hmm.. it still new for leader in this sector, so not much to be expected from it, some more it is not the experties for Leader. Haha..

Over all for me, Leader is a 中规中矩 company, she involve in various of sector and this maybe not so good for her.I'm not expecting her to become the spot in KLCI, but in terms of her financial, she really not bad in taking care of it and selecting her is only because i have no others cheap counter to buy which will be mainly benefited by those project announced by gov recently. haha... more of it is because unker SAM... Pai Seh la, as a small engineer, i have no time to look into KLSE to find potential stock, with unker SAM's recommendation and i will do my homework to verify it.. haha, wanna call me “跟尾狗”？

Regarding AXIATA, i had solded 10 lots at the price of 2.46, will sold along the rise.. let see how far she can go in short terms.

http://www.leaderuniversal.com/biz_activities/prime_undertakings.asp

AXIATA

2009-05-19T23:29:00.002+08:00

>>>>

KUALA LUMPUR: Axiata Group Bhd posted net profit of RM63.89 million in the first quarter ended March 31, down 88.9% from the RM402.69 million a year ago.

The company said on May 19 the lower profit was mainly due to the foreign exchange loss of RM216.2 million in 1Q compared with RM42.4 million foreign exchange gains a year ago.
“The drop was also attributed to the higher finance cost in the current quarter by RM166.7 million predominantly arising from the amount owing to Telekom Malaysia and loans for the Idea Cellular Ltd (Idea) acquisition amounting to RM112.4 million.

“Normalising these factors, the group’s profit after tax is RM345 million, which is 18.3% lower quarter on quarter,” it added.

Axiata said the group’s overall performance of current year quarter was also affected by the negative contribution from Dialog and higher share of loss from jointly controlled entity.

Axiata said 1Q revenue was higher at RM2.86 billion, up 5.3% from RM2.72 billion a year ago due to higher contribution from Celcom and TM International (Bangladesh) Ltd.

Profit before tax was RM191.21 million versus RM638.48 million. Earnings per share were two sen compared with 11 sen a year ago.

On the outlook, Axiata said the macro backdrop for 2009 was one of weakening economies and uncertainty, hence the group would adopt a prudent approach focusing on cost management whilst continue to lay the foundation towards achieving its long term aspiration of becoming a regional champion.

It added the group would continue to have a strong focus on continued operational efficiencies at the major subsidiaries whilst preserving the momentum of sequential improvements.

<<<<

Wow! AXIATA Quarter report out d.. what will happen tomorrow??

My view is simple, i had entered AXIATA when she still under the name of TMI at RM3.06 5 lots and 2.75 5 lots around end of Feb and early of Mar 09. PE at tht time is around 9+ (if i not mistaken ^V^!).

Unfortunately, price drop until 2.5+ and follow by right issues. i decided to keep it and receive all the right issue. I holding it because it have CELCOM and Gov will look after her, some more during that timewe are going to change the PM, for seen gov stock will have some flying color performance.

My Avg price after right issues become RM1.93.

My thinking is right issues is mainly to save the fire from TM bond. so it is planned for that and it should able to pay back all to T, then i will be more confortable when AXIATA release from the tight bond stress.

So now, she keep on going up by following the small bull started on end of Mar and the 1st Q report is out.

My next move ==> since i have 20% profit on hand, i will start to sell it based on the performance in comming 2 weeks. My main concern here is the high PE! god, 41.59% with today closing price 2.32!! any how, today highest pick is 2.38, i believe that it can go up to 2.4+ and my TP sold in stage with anything >2.42..

Lets see ^V^!

Soli for this back hand info, i did not consider this under my capital investment, i doing this because i commited to my gf to double up her capital in 1 year so that she have enough money for europe trip.. haha funny ya!! all the investment under my capital have not make profit as much as AXIATA... really sian ^V^!!

三十六件騙了你很久的事

2009-05-17T12:51:00.001+08:00

1.從太空中可以看到地球的唯一建築物是長城

歐洲航天局官方網站04年展示一幅衛星拍攝的據稱是「中國長城」的太空照片，引起了包括中國科學家在內的國際上眾多專家的質疑。歐航局之後發佈更正，確認原照片中被誤認作長城的帶狀物其實是「一條流入密雲水庫的河流」。
中國科學院一科研團隊去年完成的一項研究進一步確認：太空中肉眼無法看到長城，只有達到一定空間分辨率的衛星遙感才能獲得長城影像。即使在通視條件極佳情況下，常人能看到十米大小的物體，形成平面「形覺」的極限距離約三十六公里，遠低於一般公認為距地一百公里為起點的太空高度。而長城寬度基本為兩米左右，除大的關隘城樓外，一般城台(烽火台)寬度也僅五至六米，由此可以斷定，太空人在太空不可能僅憑肉眼就能看到長城。

2、幾個科學家小時候的故事

牛頓和蘋果的故事

——關於牛頓和他的蘋果是伏爾泰編的，據說他是聽牛頓的侄女說的，當然牛頓的所有手稿裡沒提到那只蘋果。

愛因斯坦同學和小凳子的故事

——愛因斯坦小時候成績還行，就是有點偏科，幹嘛非說人家小時候傻呢……

華盛頓和櫻桃樹的故事

——華盛頓和他老爸的櫻桃樹是某美國出版商製造出來的兒童文學……

3、瓦特看見水壺燒開產生靈感發明蒸汽機——蒸汽機在瓦特出生前有，他只不過改良了而已……

4、菠菜富含鐵元素——菠菜鐵元素確實比其他蔬菜高那麼一點點，關鍵是當初科學家點錯小數點，所以才有了大力水手的動畫片。

5、兔子應該吃胡蘿蔔——養過兔子的都知道，兔子根本就不愛吃胡蘿蔔。

6、魚翅燕窩營養豐富——居然真的會有人相信鯊魚鰭和鳥口水有什麼營養價值……燕窩除了鳥口水之外，或者還有半消化狀態的魚蝦，實際營養不如粉條和木耳！

7、懷孕不能養貓，有弓型蟲——只要去寵物醫院做次排蟲測試就成，醫生為圖省事說的，不只是貓、豬牛羊等觸類都能感染弓型蟲。而且比例上來講比貓不知道高多少……而且貓一生也只感染一次弓型蟲。絕大多數感染過弓型蟲的人一輩子都沒養過貓。

8、鋰電池前三次充電要滿12小時——以前的電池是需要充分充電，用來激活，現在都是鋰電池了，是不需要這樣做的。

9、電視電影裡常見的，某B社會「專家」拿根手指蘸掉白色粉末嘗嘗就知道是毒品

——如果真這樣做……那是找死，純度越高死的越快。

10、天才就是99%的汗水1%的靈感

——原話是「天才就是99%的汗水1%的靈感，但這1%的靈感遠遠比99%的汗水重要」。

11、老師常用『吾生有崖，而知無崖』教育我們要好好讀書

——其實……原文是「吾生有崖，而知無崖，以有崖求無崖，殆哉矣」……完全相反。

12、感冒是由感冒病毒引起的，吃消炎藥可以治感冒

——感冒藥並不能清除感冒病毒，只是緩解了咳嗽、鼻塞等症狀。

13、1999年7月……恐怖大王從天而降

——這個不用證明了吧……

14、「世界上最遙遠的距離不是生與死，而是我站在你面前，你卻不知道—我愛你。」是泰戈爾大師寫的

——是張小嫻女士的傑作。

15、解放黑奴是美國內戰的起因

美國內戰的根本原因在於南方和北方有著不同的經濟體系。當南方希望他們的農產品有個自由市場時，北方各州則要求為正在興起的本地工業產品實施保護關稅措施。於是1860到61年的冬天，南部各州退出聯邦，這不是因為他們害怕新任總統林肯會禁止蓄奴，而是因為林肯的整個政治主張都是為北方的利益效勞，即使在新開發區也是北方優先，南方各州因而擔憂，不久後他們在表決時就會完全處於劣勢了。

16、太晚吃飯並不健康，而且會使人發胖？

如果是這樣的話，地中海地區的人就慘了。並沒有證據指出，吃飽飽會讓人睡不好，也沒有人可以證明晚6點以後才吃進去的熱量特別容易讓人發胖，飲食習慣很重要，這才是正確的觀念。

17、愛斯基摩人傳統上是住在圓頂的冰屋裡

我們俗稱的愛斯基摩人比較喜歡別人以他們自己的名字「因努特人」來稱呼他們。撇開這一點不談的話，他們以前通常也是住在小屋和帳篷裡的，只有當他們在冰上打獵的期間需要過夜時，他們才會建造圓頂冰屋。

18、塑膠比木材衛生

科學實驗證明，木頭上會致病的細菌，如沙門桿菌或是大腸桿菌，很快就會死亡了，然而塑膠籃表面的細菌反而可以存活下來，甚至有一部分還會繼續繁殖呢！

19、夢境只會持續幾秒鐘

過去有很長一段時間，研究睡眠的專家相信每個夢都只維持幾秒鐘而已，即使做夢的人覺得好像做了一個長夢。事實上，人們在打個小盹時常常都像是讀了一本長篇小說一樣。不過現在我們已經確定，有些夢可以有30分鐘這麼長。接近清晨時做的夢，通常會比剛入睡時做的夢來得長。此外，每個人都會做夢─即使他自己根本什麼也不記得。

20、哥倫布時代的人仍然相信地球是一塊平面

15世紀時只要受過點教育的人，或者隨便一名水手，都不再有人會認為地球是一塊平面了。哥倫布西行航向印度的計畫，一開始會到處碰壁找不到資助，完全是因為別的理由。因為當時哥倫布算出的地球圓周只有2萬8千公里，然而葡萄牙國王的顧問群卻推算到4萬公里─事實上這是相對符合實際的數據。此外，可能他的態度舉止，還有經濟贊助的要求，都讓人沒什麼好感。

21、馬站著睡覺

馬是可以站著睡，但是如果牠們感覺安全，而且地方寬裕，那麼牠們倒是很樂於躺下來睡的。養馬專家可是說得信誓旦旦，一群馬或是一個馬廄裡面，絕對不會所有的馬都同時躺下來睡的，永遠都會有一隻站著而且守衛著！

22、只有天才才能把肖像畫得讓觀者覺得一直被盯著看

不管是從哪個角度來看《蒙娜麗莎》，她看起來就像直視著觀者的眼睛一樣。可是這裡面並沒有什麼魔法，而且也不需要像達文西這麼天才才能畫出這種效果。基本上這只是個很簡單的把戲：將畫中人的一隻眼睛畫在一條把整幅畫垂直平分的直線上即可。

23、非洲的最南端就是好望角

非洲最南端的點是厄加勒斯角（KapAgulhas，意為「針角」），它位於好望角東邊大約150公里處，而且還要再往南延伸差不多65公里。狄亞斯（BartholomeuDiaz）在1488年成為第一個繞過這兩個岬角的人，當時他說了一句話：「波濤洶湧的岬角。」但他所指的還有測量的是哪一個角，我們並不清楚。不論如何，對航海的人而言，好望角是一個很明顯的陸標；好望角的名字應該是葡萄牙國王取的，他希望當時就可以找出一條通往印度的海路。

24、過酸的食物會造成胃穿孔？

對於想阻止小孩食用太多汽水和其他亂七八糟甜食但卻束手無策的家長而言，這是個很常用的恐怖童話。人類的胃裡本來就含有消化食物的胃酸，因此我們的胃並不會因為酸性物質而受到傷害。

25、阿拉伯數字是阿拉伯人發明的

大家平常在用的阿拉伯數字，是哪一國人發明的呢？答案不是阿拉伯人喔，是印度人！我們所謂的阿拉伯數字，是西元10世紀的時候阿拉伯人從印度引進的，後來歐洲人在14世紀的時候從阿拉伯人那邊學到了0到9的數字寫法，取代了羅馬字母，而大家也就把這些數字稱為是「阿拉伯數字」。

26、民可使由之，不可使知之——孔子

——其實是『民可，使由之；不可，使知之』，「民可，使由之；不可，使知之。」也就是民可，則使由之；不可，則使知之。

人民能做的事，由他們去做；不能做的事，要讓他們知道不能做的原因。古代沒標點害人啊……

27、梁山伯與祝英台

——文學創作果然是神奇的……梁山伯其實是明朝的清官……，祝英台南北朝魏國的女俠……兩朝代相差700多年，只是被埋的近而已……還有種說法是，埋梁的時候那地裡挖到祝的碑，就埋一起，冥婚？？

28、陳世美拋妻棄子，武大郎的身高，楊門女將，楊家將——楊業就一個兒子，楊延昭，也就是俗稱的楊六郎。所謂楊家七個兒子是假的。陳世美的朝代比包公早很多，是個非常好的清官，得罪了權貴被傳成了一個負心漢遭後世唾罵。（可憐的人）陳世美不是負心郎包拯從未當宰相。

29、周瑜被諸葛亮氣得吐血，空城計

——三國演義裡周瑜被諸葛亮氣得吐血而死是羅貫中胡扯的，原因在於羅屢試不第並遷怒於某周瑜的後人，故在書裡意淫洩憤。事實上現在周瑜的族人還有族譜，證實此說純粹造謠。

諸葛亮根本沒做這回事，但是據說曹操曾有類似演出，引易中天一句話，難道司馬懿那麼蠢不會叫個弓箭手把諸葛亮射下來嗎？

30、李時珍畫像（一慈眉善目老爺爺）

——其實是現代畫家根據李時珍遺物意淫的，據考證李時珍相貌兇惡滿臉絡腮鬍身材魁梧大概和張飛李逵差不多形象……

31、以德報怨

原句：「或曰：『以德報怨，何如？』子曰：「何以報德？以直報怨，以德報德」

——《論語憲問》

以德報怨，是我們常聽到的一句話了，人們通常理解的「以德報怨」什麼意思呢？就是說：孔老夫子教我們，別人欺負你了，你要忍，被打碎牙齒也要往肚子裡吞，別人來欺負你，你反而應該對他更好，要用你的愛心去感化他，用你的胸懷去感動他。

但事實上，我們根本曲解了孔子的原意，我當初，也萬萬沒想到原來在孔子這句「以德報怨」的後邊還跟著另外一段話，什麼話呢？子曰：「以德抱怨，何以報德？以直報怨，以德報德！」看完以後，幡然醒悟，原來我們都被某個斷章取義的孔子FANS給玩了一把！當時的真實情況是怎麼樣的呢？孔子的一個弟子問他說：師傅，別人打我了，我不打他，我反而要對他好，用我的道德和教養羞死他，讓他悔悟，好不好？孔子就說了，你以德抱怨，那「何以報德？」別人以德來待你的時候，你才需要以德來回報別人。可是現在別人打了你，你就應該「以直抱怨」，拿起板磚扁他！看！就因為被人故意省略了一句話，剛烈如火的孔老夫子一下就被扭曲成了現在這個溫婉的受氣包形象。

32、無毒不丈夫

原句：量小非君子，無度不丈夫。

——民間諺語聯對

原來，這句來自民間的諺語本來應該是「量小非君子，無度不丈夫」，這本來是個很好的句子，裡邊充分運用了對仗。顯示出了一份陽剛有力的氣魄，一個胸懷坦蕩的男人形象就躍然於紙上，可惜勞動人民口耳相傳的這一句話，到了朝廷上那些所謂的學高八斗的「君子」嘴裡就變了個味。為什麼呢？這要從古時候文人的習性說起，在這副對聯式的諺語裡，「度」為仄聲字，犯了孤平，念著彆扭，很容易讀為平聲字「毒」，那些對音律美感要求甚高的學者們某天吃飽了沒事兒干，便發揮他們的專長自做主張，把這句改為「無毒不丈夫」了

33、天地不仁，以萬物為芻狗

原句：天地不仁，以萬物為芻狗，聖人不仁，以百姓為芻狗——《道德經》

要說起這句話，大半的憤青都會告訴你，這話的意思是說：「天地殘暴不仁，把萬物都當成低賤的豬狗來看待，而那些高高在上的所謂聖人們也沒兩樣，還不是把我們老百姓也當成豬狗不如的東西！」

其實這句話的真正意思是說，天地不情感用事，對萬物一視同仁，聖人不情感用事，對百姓一視同仁

34、綜合維他命有益健康？

不少營養專家提醒大家，維他命不是多吃多補，所以不要去吃單劑補充品，如維他命E、鈣片等，但每天可以吃一顆綜合維他命，安全又實際。
不過，現在卻又有專家警告，連每天吃一顆綜合維他命都可能出問題。
因為，某些綜合維他命裡的維生素、礦物質劑量，高到超過了安全值，而且愈來愈多研究也指出，高劑量的維他命對健康及預防疾病沒好處，反而會增加某些疾病的風險。
例如，最近幾個國外大型研究指出，血液中維生素A濃度高的人，罹患骨質疏鬆症的風險也比較高。另外有研究發現，攝取過量維生素A，會增加2倍的骨折風險。而且，我們攝取的維生素A會累積在體內，不像水溶性維生素（如B群、C）能隨尿液排出體外。

35、重要資料要燒錄到光碟裡面就安心了

一般人以為光碟片燒錄的資料可以放永久，其實不然，一般的光碟片頂多只有20年壽命，特殊的高價片才可能達數十年，若無好好保存，幾年內也會出問題，dvd燒錄片的壽命則更低，很差的燒錄片可能不到一年，光碟片上的染料就會稍微變質，使得資料發生錯誤。

36、喝酒可以禦寒，雪地遇難時要趕快拿酒來喝

喝酒是不能禦寒的。不只不能禦寒，反而還是造成失溫的元兇。酒一入肚，最先造成的是微血管擴張，體內血液大量湧入身體表層，是這一段期間讓我們覺得全身溫暖（並且滿臉通紅），可惜這只是表象，隨著血液從體內深處循環到表層，體內溫度也快速從深層流到體表散失。
如果喝酒過量，大腦的中樞神經還會進一步喪失功能，不只思考力、行動力會失控，連體溫調節功能也可能停擺。失溫情況無法改善，導致最後無維持體溫而喪生。

三十六件騙了你很久的事 ^V^!!

Stock On Hand_13/05/2009

2009-05-13T22:46:00.000+08:00

This 2 days been bit bz, office got many issues lol..so now posting for trading done on Monday ^V^!

Other then the stupid contra play, i had brought in YTLPOWR-WB as i wish and another warrent which is Annjoo-wb.

As for Ytlpowr-wb, already posted before for some homework, now lets look at annjoo-wb.

Actually i stil far away to called as 投资者, more over should be 投机者 lately, TOO BAD!!! i disapointed my dear uncle SAM!!

Ok, back to Annjoo-wb, at initial stage, buying it i only look at muture date and mother PE / future, too bad i had put the in/out money a side!

Annjoo price on monday is 1.98 PE is ~ 7+ and annjoo-wa price is 0.47

Wow.. premium ~50%!! bad buy!!! out money!!!

Expired date on Jan 2013.. luckly!! but oso not so long!!

Mother future ler?! actually not so good as final Q for 2008 is suffering with "-" profit, EPS also -38.++sen

I'm wandering why i buy in annjoo-wa ^V^!! hahahahaha

The reason is i cannot tahan greedy lo... look at it up then just simply check 1 or 2 items already jump in liao.. sure die la..

So what i will do now is with this 2 days performance, i beleive that it still able to climb back to >0.47 (if not major bad news) that at any price around 0.5+ i will let go all...

Luckly annjoo-wa not heading South this few days...

Ok.. As a conclusion, stock on hand now i have:

1) Ytlpowr-wb

2) Annjoo-wa

3) AXIATA

Share to cash ratio already >50%, so after dispose annjoo-wa then will be back to <40%,>

For the investment in AXIATA, is actually not under my own capital, i'm helping my gf to invest, result not bad, will post up the history when i got time.

How to evaluate warrant ??!!!

2009-05-12T23:49:00.000+08:00

Something to share from Uncle SAM, how to evaluate a warrant!! wow!! must read!

>>>>>

Though mkt is never wrong but still I hv ways to deal with her ^_^ since i cannot beat her , i hv 2 join her ^_^ how 2 join her ? use kiddy TA ? of course NO ! d more u use TA d more u die !

D solution is simple :-

2 things

1) Fund allocation , monitor yr cash vs shares ratio

2) Sell n buy in stages.

U dun know where is d peak, hence sell in stages like what I did 2 pantech, alam n zelan .

Same goes 2 buy in stages.

U know very well, mkt will never goes below 900 liao..hence , u can allocate yr fund in 3 buying stages , 1,000 , 950 n 900.

K..come back 2 warrant

How 2 pick a good warrant ?

B4 i show u how 2 pick good warrant, i must oso show u my proven track records in warrants ( as per attached)

First , YTL-wb bot in year 2002 , cost 0.52 for 213 lots

sold all @ avg 1.60+ , Profit 200K+

Second Ijm-wb bot in year 2006 , cost 0.38 for 278 lots ,

sold all @ avg 1.20+- , Profit 220K +

Third , d latest one , YTLpwr-wb bot in 2008 , cost 0.49 for 100 lots.

sold all @ avg 0.76 , Profit 25K+

Total profit made from warrant = 450K+.. ^_^ how u like that ?

What is good warrant ?

3 criterias

1) Must be in money , what is in money warrant ? in money warrant is premium that u get after u minus out yr cost n conversion from its mom.

Example : Tgoff-wa

As at 8 May 09

Mom = 1.25

Tgoff-wa= 0.69

Conversion = 0.55

Hence, 0.69 + 0.55= 1.24

1.25 - 1.24 = 1cts , premium = 0.01/1.24 = 0.8%

Due 2 cost n time factor, any premium below 30% is still consider as in money warrant .what is premium 30% for Tgoff @1.25 ? d answer is 1.08 .

1.08 + 0.55 =1.63

1.63 - 1.25 /1.25 x 100%= premium 30%

In another word means d FV 4 tgoff-wa is 1.08 $$$$$$$

2) Future earning of its mom , take a look at my previous warrant purchase , all r bluechips , such as YTL n Ijm..d latest one is Tanjong offshore.. with its status of political link darling + orders in hand , I forsee its future earning shld be a good one.

3) Expiry date , expiry date must be at least 3 years n above , y ? simple.. cos u dun know what will happen 2molo , what if another 911 happen tonite ? once its mom dive from d sky, yr premium could gone with d wind oso, hence , longer expiry date is essential.

<<<<<

For criteria 1, why <30% consider in-money?? let see what SAM says:

>>>>>>
May 12, 2009 9:36 AM

Samgoss said... 2 ccdev..u left out something here, sam is from "KINDER GARDEN" Fa school ^_^ , fyi.lots of TA experts has come 2 my kinder garden school seeking 4 guide. what if I am graduated from FA uni ? wow wow wow !

2 poker limit, y 30 % ?

simple !

Average FD is ard 6% , hence, 5 years due warrant = 5 x 6%= 30%.
still dun understnad ?

k... 4 example.

If d conversion is 1.00 n due date is 5 years later , u only need to come out with rm1,000 upon due date , so what u do with this rm1,000 b4 due date ? obviously u will put it in FD , hence..5 years x 6% lol ^_^

simple ??

<<<<<

Haha.. now u know how to buy warrant d!! Thank to SAM

http://samgang.blogspot.com/2009/05/v-warrant-can-make-u-rich-how-2-pick.html

Contra Contra... die "cha cha"

2009-05-11T16:28:00.000+08:00

Just now curi ayam then kena bakar d!! wahahahaha!!

Ramunia having suddent jump just now, boring at home then jump in to the mass.. buying 100 lot at 0.41, look at the price keep on going up, then suddenly the price heading south, cannot tahan d and cut loss at 0.405 for 90 lots and 0.415 for 10 lots, total loss is 107+, all process take time in less then 1 hour!! wow!! horror of Contra.. really like gambling... hahahaha..

No more in Future!!

YTLPOWER-WB

2009-05-11T11:11:00.000+08:00

Shit! cannot get TGOFFS-WA at 0.705!! all the way shot up to 0.80 d... sian la....

so now let see YTLPOWR-WB at current stage, this is the 1 that gain me 17% return last year.. haha

>>> In out money

Warrant price = 0.835

Conversion price = 1.25

Mother's price = 2.06

0.835 + 1.25 - 2.06 = 0.025

0.025 / 2.06 = 1.21%

Not bad.

>>> Mutual date = 11/06/2018 >> good!!

>>> Mother's performance:

PE ~11 at current price, hmm... not so good and not so bad. It is an slow and steady counter.

From latest Q report, EPS ~ 14.63 per annum, Current ratio for Q209 = 2.5, Debt to Cap = 0.77

ok la...

Booked 80 lots at 0.835, hope can get it...

TGOFFS-WA

2009-05-10T20:00:00.000+08:00

A good warrent must fulfill this three point:

1) in money

2) its expiry date must be more than 3 years n above

3) Mom 's future earning must be promising.

Mari kita tengok kat TGOFFS-WA:

1) in / out money

Warrant price = 0.705
Conversion price = 0.55
Mother price = 1.25
Conversion ratio = 1:1

premium / discount ?

0.705 + 0.55 - 1.25 = 0.005
0.005 / 1.25 * 100 = 0.4%

every warrant with % < 30 consider in-money lol, ding dong, PASS!!

2) Expired date for TGOFFS-WA is 07 Apr 2016, 7 yrs to go, ding dong, PASS!!

3) Mother's performance. Current PE is ~8.59

2008
OM = 8.26
RoE = 10
NPM = 5.47
CR = 1.35
DtC = 0.54

2007
Operation Margin = 7.87
RoE = 18.53
Net Profit Margin = 5.46
Current Ratio = 1.31
Debt to Capital at Book = 0.47

2006
Operation Margin = 7.03
RoE = 19.73
Net Profit Margin = 6.23
Current Ratio = 1.37
Debt to Capital at Book = 0.46

2005
Operation Margin = 6.1
RoE = 24.95
Net Profit Margin = 7.83
Current Ratio = 0.84
Debt to Capital at Book = 0.23

Performance not bad huh!! As per some of the comment in SAM's blog, the TGOFFS-WA is quite similar to YTLPOWR-WB and all the while this is the cup of tea for SAM. haha...

1 things that TGOFFS-WA have is the history. she has reached RM3 once a while in 2007 bull run lol and it is 4 times for current price.. haha.

Will definetly buy in TGOFFS-WA tomorrow with 100 lots.

Stock picking with 100% cash on hand

2009-05-10T12:28:00.000+08:00

In 2 weeks time, had don't some Contra play, It refers to Pantech and SAAG.

Pantech is a call buy Uncle SAM >>:

Samgoss said...

Guys, I hv enter 10 lots of pantech @ 0.505 ( as per attached ).

Pantech PE Ard 4 , high NTA + revenue increased , volume increased tremendously 4 past 2 days, good 4 short term kill.
The call is done on April 13, i'm entering it bit late because i bit kia si, haha.. As you know, KLCI already heading up for few weeks d, for seen some adjustment will come soon, but who knows? it keeps on going up and Pantech going along until 0.65 only i entered. My plan for initial is really put for contra play, reason behind is i have not doing any analysis on Pantech, totally batting on luck!! haha... not a good practise huh!! as i solded it at 0.74 and now its keep on going up til ~0.80. so you see? this is why playing contra cannot become rich!! haha, because u have no confident at all on your pick!!

For the pick of SAAG, it is also the same, purely contra play. SAAG is not a good FA counter (I didn't go in deep but it is info from SAM's blog) not for long term keep and high risk when market gose down / adjustment, so actually i'm gambling la... haha (偷鸡)!!　偷到就好咯，偷不到就 si cham cham lo.. haha, still got 50 lots on hand, will sell along the rise in coming Monday (if it's going up)!

ok, since i had 100% cash on hand, is now time to do some real investment! market already up like hell, got ppl says in bear trap but even more ppl says that it is small bull, what u think? With FA method, no matter what it is, important is the quality of the stock that you pick! low PE, solid finance background, low debt and full cash! that you have nothing to worried about!

So for ppl like me that no time to check the stock one by one, Uncle SAM's call is a good reference for this kind of stock (i beleive SAM would not put his money on risk even he had earn a lot! haha). So what he had picked in this few weeks? let see:

1) PANTECH
2) ZELAN
3) ALAM
4) YTLPOWR-WB
5) FAVCO
5) KSL
6) TGOFFS-WA

The call of PANTECH, ZELAN, and ALAM is definetly missed boat for me (all of them rised >20%!!, so you say uncle SAM's call "Chun" bo?). YTLPOWR-WB is a buy back call from SAM at 0.825. FAVCO, no info at all, calling price at 0.88, but now already 0.93, KSL is a lefted behind conter amoung all the construction counter (SAM call to buy anything below 0.81, now already 0.835). TGOFFS-WA is under value, SAM buy in at 0.69 with high ratio.

Which to chose??

道义？？！！

2009-04-28T17:17:00.000+08:00

What you want if there are better things for you to grape?? of cause, many ppl will take it directly, tht's right!! why should we keep on unchanged due to the fool 道义？

Everybody knows that when the situation is not good for you, leaving is the best choice. but then hor, someone also tel me that a successful guy can suit him or her self with the bad situation. So, which 1 is correct? to be frank, i have no idea la..

I'm the 1 who too care about 道义。Did 道义 can replace rice / money?? common bro, i'm suffering with the life because of the stupid words!! Waiting for 2 years, keeping the hope that what u do will be appriciated by ppl, keep on beleive that the good days will come. Some time, i really hinted others regarding my feeling. mayb i'm using the wrong way to shows my unsatisfaction, haha, giving hint? don be fool!! ppl will buat tak tahu if u oni hint them.

Y not i change my self to suite with it?? to be honest, i DON WANT! y should i do this especially when i know that it is not the way that i should carry on in my life?? Doing the things that u don like everyday actually is suffering your self and it won develop you. Some says that "oh, that is gread! atlease you can easily suite again if another unwanted environment u had joined" haha..

So.. i will leave, i don want poluted my self with this kind of bad culture! even though, the new place may also have this kinda things...

Let c...

Mimi

2009-04-26T00:30:00.001+08:00

Yesterday i safe a puppy that fall into the "long Kao", feel very happy lol... is it a sign that u miss you dog that already passed away? today afternoon i dream of Mimi lol.. hmm..he looks suffer because he is choughing during barking..

I hope that he had made a lot of doggies friend in heaven't miss you!!

Resort, SCOMI and Mah Sing

2009-04-25T12:16:00.000+08:00

Disposed all my Resort, Mah Sing and half of my SCOMI on Friday!!

Resort avg price = 2.346,
soled all at 2.55
profit taken = 8.11%

Reason:
I sold it because 50% of my capital is on Resort. This has limited me to invest in other stock for better profit earning (here is mean foreign stock lol). Not to say that resort is not good (current PE ~23.6+), but i still not yet well trained to keep stock at lower price!! haha.. Mayb later i will feel sad tht y i sell it so early when the bull is here.. ^V^

K, talk about Resorts, she may go further up if KLCI still going up, part or it would be her project in S'pore that going to launch soon (Sentosa casino lol), this make small fish more confortable to follow the KLCI trend to jump in for Resorts.

IF KLCI heading South in next few weeks, hmm... she should follow the trend as well. i cabut now part of it is because the capital concern, but the main reason is because the high PE. some more she already over buying in this 2 days, and i saw that on Friday the increasing momentum is started to slow d. Is it a sign for a big "U" turn or it is only a check point for her to climb even higher?? lets see la..

Will consider to buy back if she drop back to ~2.20 - 2.15 haha, posible?? but i not really suka Uncle Lim's son lol ^V^!

>>>>

SCOMI avg price = 0.405,
soled half 50 lots at 0.45
Profit taken = 11.11%

Reason:
This stock i have no detail analysis on it, it just simply follow the call from Uncle SAM. this is not good la (i know that), but i worried that will missed boat, so just book in and study later (this is not a good practice lol)

Uncle SAM advise that profit should take around 20% - 30% i have doubt on this coz i cannot see any reason that this stock can go further up! ha.. mayb i'm wrong, but who cares? penting is got earn money ma... so 11% is ok for me.

another half of SCOMI, i will sell along the raise lol.. if its really reach >0.5+, 90% i will disposed all of it, depends on the situation lol.. anything can happen in stock market, only the metter of earn more or less... haha

lets see, SCOMI PE = 3.41, should be quite safe la and still got room to gross lol, just until now i still don understand what will be the power to push SCOMI up, the only think that i can think of is the "goreng" trend that happen in this few weeks, this "goreng" trend hor, every stock can goes up no matter good or bad... but i beleive Sifu's 眼光 la, got chance i'll ask him why SCOMI?! only i know is because politic reason... hahaha.. ^V^!

>>>>

Other then Resort and SCOMI, i oso disposed my old friend Mah Sing at price of 1.72. loss profit of -17.58%, not much to say here as u know this is my yuran belajar (my 1st stock that i buy in my life).. haha, current PE = 11+, i decided to sold it because:

1) Plan for switching to better oportunity
2) Low volumn (like SIME-CG, move like Wu Gui even the mother SIME grossed >RM1)
3) Construction sectors (not their game now, even today is their day, oso not Mah Sing's day)

Any how, this is a good stock! if you look that the history, when her price reached ~rm5 - rm6, it will split and back to lower price, i not sure that this is good or not but for me is ok because i afford to buy in at lower price.

interms of FA point of view, Mah Sing have no problem for her finance and the management as well! interms of market share pula, she can be considered in the top 10 range lo.. But for the time being, i have no plan to buy back at any lower price.

Dispose of KNM and SIME-CG

2009-04-18T23:03:00.000+08:00

This week i disposed all my KNM and half of my SIME-CG.. Wow.. total profit is:

KNM = 9.55%
SIME-CG = 8.7%

profit made in 4 months, ok la!! haha :)

oso i jump in to SCOMI with the call from Uncle SAM, hmm... should be a short term play. enter price 0.405 with total 100lots. PE around 3 lol.. SAM call is cabut wih profit of 20% - 30% means around 0.49 - 0.53, i would not be so "yong" lol to wait till that level, with the profit around 15% to 20% i will cabut, reason is hor:

1) KLCI already increased ~14% since mid of Mar, i would say the market almost coming to adjustment stage d lol... prepare for the next big jump!

2) If you look at recent trend, KLCI already no more power to climb d.. Volumn up until 16/4 and Friday start to decrease lol... if Dow.J have bad performance on Friday night, Monday would be a bad day for KLCI lol...

hmm... so.... ada chance then cabut lol... next tp for SIME-CG is 0.165 on monday and SCOMI with any price > 0.49.

Next target would be US stock lol.. next drop is comming soon. target will be Citi and AIG and this should be long term keep... KLCI banyak lambat la... hahaha

What happen to KNM??

2009-02-27T12:18:00.000+08:00

Samgoss said...
As i said , FA 4 knm is 50/50 , price tumled from 1.50 to 0.40+ is due 2 d borsig acquisition, d question here is " is current price @0.40+reflected d true value ? gearing far too high! read d below :-根據ＫＮＭ的Managing Director，Lee Swee Eng接受The Star採訪時說：“Meanwhile, the group does not expect any impairment for the acquisition of Borsig although the values of assets around the world have tumbled significantly. We bought it based on multiple PE (price-to-earnings) and we did a purchase evaluation. We don’t foresee any impairment”.（“同時，本集團不認為購置Borsig有任何減值，雖然世界各地的資產價值有顯著下跌。我們買它基於本益比（股格收益），我們做了購買的評價。我們沒有預見到任何損害” 。）到底收購Borsig的真相是什麼？ＫＮＭ未收購Borsig前的２００７年營業額是12億3千萬馬幣，收購後根據已經發佈９個月的數據，營業額估計是22億3千5百萬馬幣，約增長1億零5百64萬馬幣或８１.７％，ＫＮＭ說主要是來自Borsig的貢獻，因此我們可以大概推斷新增的營業額主要來自Borsig。利潤率(Margin)則大體維持在未收購Borsig前的１５％。因此可以大概估計，Borsig的估計1億零5百64萬馬幣的營業額以１５％利潤率計算，淨利約1億5千萬馬幣。為了收購Borsing，ＫＮＭ向Malayan Banking Berhad 借了7億4千8百萬馬幣；人民幣借款5千1百75萬；歐元1億7千3百萬和加幣1億1百萬。合共12億4千1百83萬馬幣。ＫＮＭ總共用了16億4千5百萬馬幣收購Borsig（約3.5億歐元）ＫＮＭ是否真有給足Borsig 16億4千5百萬馬幣我不肯定，但是跟據ＫＮＭ的財務數據的推斷，以16億4千5百萬馬幣收購淨利才1億5千萬馬幣的公司，本益比高達１６倍，而且是在石油產業巔峰時期的價錢計算，怎樣都不能說是一個好交易。而根據ＫＮＭ的Balance Sheet，收購Borsig產生的商譽(Goodwill)高達15億6千零22萬馬幣。以此推斷，Borsig的淨資產只不過約8千4百78萬馬幣，收購價竟然是淨資產的１８.４倍！這簡直是離譜的收購價！根本不是ＫＮＭ的Managing Director，Lee Swee Eng所說的：“Meanwhile, the group does not expect any impairment for the acquisition of Borsig although the values of assets around the world have tumbled significantly. We bought it based on multiple PE (price-to-earnings) and we did a purchase evaluation. We don’t foresee any impairment”. Lee Swee Eng簡直在胡說八道！根據推算出來的１６倍本益比和１８.４倍市淨率的收購價，顯然１６倍本益比的數據並不可靠，因為財務報表中，淨利是最不可靠的數據。如果依據Borsig的淨利的話，它的ＲＯＥ則高達１７６％！這怎麼可能？ＢＡＴ（英美菸草）也沒這麼利害！所以我敢十分肯定，Borsig的盈利肯定是假數據，難怪Borsig的網站沒有提供淨利和淨資產數據。事實上收購Borsig後，除了帳面數字外，根本看不到實際的業績成長？根據Borsig淨資產的數據估計，即使表現再好，淨利最多也不過1千3百萬，如此收購價的真實本益比則高達１２６倍，Borsig甚至也可能是虧本公司？到此......真相終於大白！ＫＮＭ的外資股東可以很容易通過德國商務部查一查Borsig是什麼東西，當這些外資知道ＫＮＭ以１８.４倍市淨率收購Borsig的真相後，你說他們會不會即刻逃之夭夭？這就說明為何ＫＮＭ宣佈收購Borsig後，外資會不計成本的瘋狂賣出。各為股民們應該對當時ＫＮＭ股價一路狂瀉的印象記憶猶新吧？這種跌法絕對不是一個正常藍籌股該有的跌法，其實已經告訴股民裡面已經有大問題了！因此我堅決相信，收購Borsig其實是“圈錢”計劃！Borsig的背景，實在令人懷疑...... 根據ＫＮＭ的INCOME STATEMENT提供的折舊數額如下：我平時計算時因有計算Amortisation，所以習慣使用Fixed Assets一併計算，這裡因為只談有形資產，所以就採取Property, Plant and Equipment(PPE)計算。Property, Plant and Equipment的數額：2003=82,8312004=95,3432005=139,3452006=393,9552007=468,973如果以PPE計算，計算INCOME STATEMENT的折舊，折舊年份如下：2003=61年2004=44年2005=76年2006=157年2007=185年如此計算，ＫＮＭ顯然折舊不足，明顯有問題。但是如何計算ＫＮＭ的TOTAL折舊呢？結果如下：2003=21年2004=14年2005=15年2006=20年2007=18年根據如此計算，折舊似乎又正確起來了？但是，如果仔細分析，就會發現很多不對路的地方！１.根據會計準則，當期消耗的，應該是費用，而不是折舊，折舊的東西必須未來可以為公司創造收入的資產才能使用。Construction work-in-progress能夠算是嗎？２.Construction work-in-progress是屬於Trade Receivables項目。也就說，它的款項已經拿入營業額，款項納入營業額，依據權責制，其相關的風險，收益，權益，虧損等應該屬於客戶，不應該屬於ＫＮＭ，即使該工程還沒交付給顧客，也不應該再由ＫＮＭ承當，所以為何Construction work-in-progress的折舊可以那入ＫＮＭ的開支？３.Construction work-in-progress的折舊屬於Trade Receivables項目，也就是Current Assets，它是不可以和屬於Fixed Assets的Property, Plant and Equipment互相計算比較，所以用TOTAL折舊來計算出來的折舊年份，本質上就不合理！４.我們可以從Balance Sheet看到，Property, Plant and Equipment該項資產佔總資產約４０％－５０％左右，為何屬於它們的折舊率（INCOME STATEMENT部分），佔TOTAL折舊的比例這麼小？５.如果看看ＫＮＭ的其它同行，如WASEONG(華商控股)，或者其它，你們不會看到它們像ＫＮＭ這樣處理折舊項目。這樣的話解釋只有２個：一是ＫＮＭ作假；而是其他的同行作假。根據ＫＮＭ這種折舊處理手法，我的感覺是：ＫＮＭ將折舊開支分攤到Construction work-in-progress（Trade Receivables）,以此降低自己的開支，從而提高盈利。而ＫＮＭ的Trade Receivables本質上就有很多問題！ＫＮＭ的收入９０％來自海外公司，而海外公司又是審計所無法審核的。其海外子公司提供的單據是否有問題？根劇ＫＮＭ的帳目顯示，它的收賬能力非常差勁，只看到它現金不斷流出，卻看不到有多少現金流入公司帳戶，流動經營能力之差，是大馬石油業之最，只比ＰＥＴＲＡ好而已。因此，該Trade Receivables已經有問題了，屬於Trade Receivables的Construction work-in-progress中的折舊，可靠性有多高.2 swing traders, trade @ yr own risk ^V^
February 6, 2009 9:57 AM

KNM 4th Q results is out, the net profit still growing compared to last quarter, but why still so many big share holder throwing the stock?? nice to think of it...

投机好辛苦啊！！

2009-02-03T17:25:00.000+08:00

Actually... today i want to play contra de.... which counter? WCT and AA la... y?

WCT already hit by the bad news since few weeks back and the price is low enough, (although i know tht in this type of market, if u think is low, it can be more low). with the low PE oso had make me more confortable to play contra.

For AA, the Sunday news regarding the cancelation of the new airport project at NS had bring positive sign on its cash flow, it should shows some reflect on it share price.

Any how, i didn't buy anything today. y?
1st, i scare.
2nd, is not a good investment habit (very strugering me).

Look at WCT today, open at 1.06 and close at 1.04, highest and lowest price are 1.09 and 1.04, with 3 days contra play, i had loss the 1st day, what will happen for the next 2 days? who knows? Keep for long terms? if got cash ok la... but contra play mean with nothing and u create somthing ma, that y called 投机．．

For AA, open at 0.875 and close at daily highest price of 0.895 no comment, same to say that i don know what will happen tomorrow and the day after tomorrow before contra expired. if we talk about long terms play or FA play, AA for sure not my cup of tea at this moment!

Contra play is not like swing trade, contra play make me feel worried because i'm gambling and it is based on nothing, no FA base and no whateva base, who knows AA or WCT will go up or down with this kind of news?
记得，别投机！！投机让你心神不宁，这又何苦呢？

KNM

2009-02-02T22:32:00.000+08:00

If we talk about the trading volume, KNM always become the 1st or 2nd in KLSE, all the time you can see that her volume is high enough to scare you.. hehe.. It is a good sign for swing trade especially in this bear market lol... 起得快，跌得也快。。

Ok, let see KNM got how much 斤两。。 what this company doing now is to design, manufacture & assembling the equipment that is needed for oil and gas sectors. talk about this for sure it is highly influence by the crude oil price lol... (Sectors analysis still not reach home yet, roughly KNM should be involve in the oil and gas sectors, pai seh :P), and from her volume record, it definitely is a counter that suka di goreng by all those 炒家 out there...

Back to the FA point of view for KNM. For the pass results, her revenue increased every year since 2004 and it always increase more then 50% each year and start to slow down from 2006 to 2007. In terms of EPS, it also keep on growing by 1 times up compared to every previous year (but also slow down from 2006 to 2007), RoE always >15% from 2004 onward.

If look at latest Q report (Q3 08), the gearing is high and up to 1.02 due to 1656M of current liability, this consider very risky especially in this kind of sick market. Other then this nothing much special that we can see from the Q report.

For KNM, it is not a FA counter due to her high gearing, but any how it is good for swing trade due to the high volume and the sector that they are working on. I would say for KNM, we still can made profit by hit and run, agree? i have few lots on hand and i had miss out the good time to let go at last month due to greedy, hope that this time i can catch the chance and let go, soon or later buy bc at lower prices, my AP = 0.44, TP = o.50 (13%) and will buy back at any <0.42, if the price still heading south, i'll hold and wait for the Q4 report announcement.

Eyes on the market (cont.)

2009-01-31T21:13:00.000+08:00

Hmm.. Lets talk bout my latest eyes on counter, it start with "W", what we can see here is until last Friday closing price, it already shows some re bounce from the continuous drop since early of Jan'09. within 52 weeks, the price dropped 80% from the highest to the lowest.

In terms of company financial:
Current PE = 5.3+ (last Friday closing price)

Based on 3rd Q financial report:
Current ratio = 1.65
D/E ratio = 0.62
Remark: CR 1.65 still consider "o.k." for me, with the 637M cash on hand. the D/E ratio on 0.62 is a bit high for me especially under current economy trend, the best would be <0.5. roe ="="> 2003: 21%, 2004: 4%, 2005: 16%, 2006: 11%, 2007: 18%
Annual EPS (sen) ==> 2003: 72, 2004: 15, 2005: 40, 2006: 31, 2007: 46
Annual NTA (RM) ==> 2003: 3.47, 2004: 3.60, 2005: 2.53, 2006: 2.77, 2007: 2.62
Remark: ROE positive for all 5 yrs (2004 that have ROE <10% ma="=">my analysis :P) this is a company with good pass performance, any how, the recent issues faced by this company has make the invest on this company become a high risk pick.

If i want for save play, wait for Q4 report. If risk taker, buy in some for contra play, the price start to re bounce since last Friday (big share holder like Tamesak also want to let go the stock ma before the tsunami come :P). On top of this, PE 5.3+ had reduce some risk for the contra play.

Any how, after Tamesak through their hold, it will definately follow by a big drop on the share price after it rise a bit (comment from my tok guru SAM!!).. 买卖自负！！

Eyes on the market

2009-01-27T11:32:00.000+08:00

Lately found out tht 1 company is in trouble, current tread at RM1+, PE around 5, will pose up my homework later. As per the great Buffett:

"The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble. We want to buy them when they're on the operating table."

SIME-CG

2009-01-20T22:58:00.000+08:00

Below is my analysis on SIME-CG after i buy, really not a got practise, please advise if my calculation is wrong!!

In/out Money
Mom price = 5.65
Cost = 0.14
Conv. price = 5.35
Mutual date = 18/06/2010 (~1.5 yr from now)
Conv. lot = 10:1

In/out money ==> (0.14 x 10)+5.35-5.65 = 1.1 (1.1/5.65 x 100%) = 19.47% (< rate =" 6%" years =" 481.5" 5 =" 4868.5" 1400 =" 6268.5" price =" 5.65" 5=" 5168.5.">5168.5)

That why i say don't buy in hurry, if not will end up like me==> get expensive warrant. Ok, now what should i do? since i have brought it, the only things is invest with high risk la.. lets wait and see what the mother can do?? I had classify this as a very high risk game and this had violate the rule for success in stock investment (for me la) ==> 别先想赚多少，先想会亏多少，保本为上。。

Lesson Learned

2009-01-19T14:21:00.000+08:00

Currently on hand, i have 4 counters. KNM, Resort, SIME-CG, and Mah Sing. It seems too many for me d. Let me talk about their history...

First is Mah Sing, it is really a loss buy for me. this is the 1st counter in my stock investment life, get it in year 2007 when the bull is going to pick up. what i can remember is during that period, Mah Sing giving me a good impression and furthermore i don't know how to chose a good counter, do i intend to start buying so that i can feel join the big market ocean rather that only look at the sea-side. of cause it is very high risk to jump into the stock ocean without knowing what boat that carrying you. anyhow i brought Mah Sing with high price (do not remember what is the price d, what i know today is definitely with very high PE.) during that time, Mah Sing is up to RM 4.50 - RM 5.20, Wow! if i know how to use PE, definitely i won't buy Mah Sing at that moment (currently Mah Sing traded at the price of RM1.55 - RM1.60 with the PE around 9.++). Any how, i manage to bring down average price to almost RM1.99 with small quantity now on hand (1300 unit). What i have now still lose for about 25%!! haha, still keeping it huh?! for what? nothing much, just for reminder to keep me aware that don't buy any stock with high PE even is a good company! (For me, Mah Sing can be consider as a good counter among all the construction company, will post my current analysis on Mah Sing if got time "V").

KNM is my lately investment after i know what is PE and have some experience in stock market (of cause, i got 1 Sifu that posting his good knowledge of stock market investment with FA in his blog that really teach me a lot of things there). I brought KNM during her PE hanging around 9.4+. it is a good tread for me and why i say that is because:

1) The crude oil price during that time is below USD 40, and this maybe the bottom of it. US and the 中东油盟 for sure will do something to prevent further drop of the crude oil price (if they not then the economy situation will be more worst then now).

2) The highest price and lowest price for KNM in 52 weeks are both at RM 7.45 and RM 0.39 and my average price now is around RM 0.44, is quite cheap la for me and it already stay at bottom line since early of DEC' 08.

3) all the FA data show quite ok for KNM, any how from the Q report, the gearing for KNM is very high, this is one of my concern point, other that that is fine for me.

My looking on the the crude oil situation is it will back to the price of USD 34 (mayb lower?) as per end of DEC'08 later on (i had missed to sell my KNM when it raised to RM 0.52 during early of Jan'09) and will start to stabilize. Any how, i will sell off my KNM in stage once i have 10% profit due to my only concern and worried in her gearing, it not good for long term investment.

For Resort, it is a buy called by SAM (i consider him as my Sifu lo). Haha, during that time, Resort dropped painfully from RM 2.65 to RM2.15 after the announcement of her Q3 report, on top of this, the call of uncle Lim's son on BROMET LIMITED AND DIGITAL TREE (USA), INC. which is under Genting Group previously also get the bad feed back in the market. The share price for Resort cannot even pick up a bit in the middle on DEC' 08, unfortunately i brought in Resort at the next day after she done the 1st drop of 20 sen from RM 2.65, of cause she continue to heading South in the coming few weeks, haha, lesson learned here is don't be so fast to step in when you see a big company just started to heading South, should 静观其变 a bit la. but any how, i manage to average down my price to RM 2.35, hmm.. still ok la. I'll post my analysis on Resort also later on. This is the counter that i may consider to hold for bit longer time frame.

Ok, now comes the SIME-CG, actually i brought this under a quite urgent situation. this is also not a good investment habit which we call "kia si" and "tam sim"!! Because most of my capital are with Resort, i had out of bullet to catch SIME (mother for SIME-CG) during middle of DEC '08, i chose SIME-CG also due to some influence by one of the blogger which is same as me (small capital), this is really a high high risk bat!! the mutual date for this warrant is on Jun 2010 means next year, i did do some home work on it after i brought it and it seems like out money warrant!! this counter for me is more like gambling because i gonna bat that the mother's price will raise in 1.5 years time from now and if Mr. Bear visit us and stay even longer until next year, so i only can say bye bye lo... lesson learned: don't buy in hurry!! cash is king!!! this warrant definitely I'll sell once i have profit of 5% - 8%, let see.

As a conclusion, what the things that i learned now from my current stock is:

1) Don't buy the stock with PE unknown and >10 - 15 even in bull market (Mah Sing) because u won't know when the bear will come and u will not know how greedy you will be!

2) Don't buy in in hurry situation (Resort) because if you are in hurry, you are not able to look into the whole pic. and when you realize the drop cannot be controlled, you already in bad situation, of cause a good company will recover any how, but if you didn't trap in that situation, u can utilize the capital for other investment!!

3) Don't be so greedy (KNM) if you know the company that you are holding have some concern point (high gearing!), should sell if get profit (of cause we should know the company well before we invest). If we buy a counter with strong financial background, even the price is going down, the company still boleh tahan and the recovery is faster, but if you r holding a high gearing stock, you have no alternative way to keep for long terms investment because the company is in trouble.

4) If want be a follower, please follow after you do homework (SIME-CG), this is really a killing point, is a comment sense but i still do the wrong thing. analysis do after you invest have no meaning, the only things that you can do is to bat that you follow the right wind. if not, quickly sell it!!

okok... next will be some homework...

3rd Blog

2009-01-11T16:06:00.000+08:00

Plan to have 1 blog that record my stock trading dairy.. this seems to be it la... let c how can i make/loss money here!! yeah!!

我的。。。。

古老的致富秘笈

Disposal of SCOMMIR

又到報稅季節‧26招精明省稅

巴比倫首富‧7招教你做有錢人

Generally, What i see from SCOMIMR now

Buy SCOMIMR at 0.40 and 0.46

Dubai in trouble??!!

Sealink 3rd Q results

Buy Sealink at 0.68 (Avg down)

Fly away (IJM-WC again!!)

My next target IJM-WC

Gatal gatal nak beli!

Short review on my dear SEALINK

FAVCO!!!

KFIMA again.....

KFIMA.....

SAM's e-book

Sell of RCECAP

Look at RCECAP again

Buy SEALINK at 0.76

Busy Busy...

Buy or Not??

O&G counters may correct before rising again

Buy KFIMA at 0.63

GENTING SINGAPORE PLC

Week of Market Correction - Ronan kena trap *V*

Buy RCECAP at 0.560 (Avg down)

什 么 是 成 长 股 ？ 怎 样 发 掘 成 长 股 ？

Buy RCECAP at 0.590

RCECAP

Eyes on the market 2

Sell all YTLPOWR-WB at 0.950

Sell all PANTECH at 0.895

如何解開散戶屢買屢套的魔咒

勿被情緒左右‧不做“市場先生”

Updated Blog Template *V*!!!

勤做功課為何投資報酬率不佳？—破解股市迷思23

Buy KFIMA at 0.685

What i learn from <舉債來投資 MEGAN 值得嗎?>

soled all Annjoo-wb at 0.51

Buy PANTECH at 0.78

My think of O & G stock

Two shareholders sell 854m shares in Genting Singapore

YTL Power shows signs of recovery

Buy In Leader (Recormanded by Uncle SAM)

AXIATA

三十六件騙了你很久的事

Stock On Hand_13/05/2009

How to evaluate warrant ??!!!

Contra Contra... die "cha cha"

YTLPOWER-WB

TGOFFS-WA

Stock picking with 100% cash on hand

道义？？！！

Mimi

Resort, SCOMI and Mah Sing

Dispose of KNM and SIME-CG

What happen to KNM??

投机好辛苦啊！！

KNM

Eyes on the market (cont.)

Eyes on the market

SIME-CG

Lesson Learned

3rd Blog

Week of Market Correction - Ronan kena trap V

什么是成长股？怎样发掘成长股？

Updated Blog Template V!!!