Monday, August 18, 2014

Some Doubt

When I examing my holding, 2 things. Comes into my mind:

1. Marco is having very good DY, but why the volume is always so high? Since the share price movement is also not attractive, what is the reason behind of high volume??

2. WEIDA have a lot of cash on hand, he can clear all his debt with only paying all of them with cash (of cause he won do that for the sake of future secure any project expenses). WEIDA have also a clear future plan and moving into a so call good transition, the overall business ran by WEIDA is well planned and it seem like able to cover each of them within different sectors. Why ASSAR keep disposing WEIDA at anything around 1.90-2.00?? What did ASSAR see which we haven seen??

Worth to think more, might plan on re organize my capital around my holding.

Saturday, August 9, 2014

Is SUPERMAX a case of 狼来了??

Last Friday, i decided to clear all my SUPERMAX @ 2.2+. walau! so fast scare liao!! hahaha. few reason make me take this move, however, my move is not because of panic market, it is because of signal that i learn from Mr Hu, and i try to apply it, since i still have some pocket money from it. This are the reasons why i buy SUPERMAX before hand:

1. SUPERMAX is having the lowest PE at this moment with about 11, TG is running around 15 and KOSSAN is 18.

2. TG and KOSSAN start to move a bit already and left only SUPERMAX. Yesterday it closes at flat but there is a spike up to 2.2+ during lunch time.

3. Weekly volume starts to pick up in pass 3 weeks, 10 days average price start to trend up.

and my original TP for SUPERMAX is RM2.56.

I decided to clear it one shot on Friday due to:

1. Continuously 4 days OHCL (Open High Close Low).
2. Volume Shrinked significantly.
3. Politic standpoint of SUPERMAX.
4. Global Event which is getting worst off.

From the trend point of view, i buy in with volume pick up, and i have to sell it when volume shrink together with share price trended down continuously with 10 days average line also start to flip down on Friday. I would beleive the continuous red for SUPERMAX is due to over brought in the solid green bar on Monday, however, even for the gunner and 投机客,they also need to wait for T3 to force sell, so when i see the 1st red after the green couple with long upper needle line and high volume, i pretty much confirm that the big fish is disposing SUPERMX hardly, not difficult to know that one of the giant fish is the EPF, this will link to point number 3 later. The volume and share price movement for subsequent three days further makes me almost 100% sure that the up trend for SUPERMX had been interrupted.

From point number 3, after i entered SUPERMAX, i did read quite a numbers of journal regarding glove industry and SUPERMAX, and one of the point i pick up is the SUPERMAX is anti government, hahahaha. Although i haven't see any latest new on how the management team of SUPERMAX criticize the gov, the latest article that SUPERMAX complaining the government are as below, and from what EPF had been doing all the while (Keep dispose and dispose), it is really a company that hard to get the support from GOV, at least this is what i feel.













Lastly, with the recent dip on share market (for it, it is more like an over react on the market due to the fire call on Iraq from Obama). with the unstable global situation, i think it is hard to gain the confident of the investor to put their money in the share market at least for a short while, even I'm the investor that obey the Mr Market, i will also keep my money in other counter for now at least.

The quarter report for SUPERMAX will be out this month, and i quite confident that it will be a good one. However, i do believe that the share price on last Monday had reacted to the good result + the Ebola effect.

With the cash on hand, i will swap it to another counter either WEIDA or MARCO on Monday depends on the situation.

Sunday, August 3, 2014

MUDAJAYA India Power Plan Operation Timeline Get Pushed Out AGAIN???

Found this in INVESTALKS by spy008

I called Mudajaya Investor Relation on 30th July 2014 2pm++,
I have spent about 16 mins speaking with their IR, Mr. Benjamin.

I asked about the status of few projects, and these are the answers I got (I couldn't confirm all the information given to me are correct, but everything I wrote here are exactly what he meant):

1) Regarding the India Power Plant, their latest revised date for firing the 1st Power Plant is by end of 3rd Quarter (end of September). If 1st plant launched successfully, other remaining will start launching 1 by 1 (each takes 1 quarter).

**This is not a good sign **

2) Mudajaya is the "technical support" in civil for the power plant 3B that has been awarded to 1MDB - Mitsui Joint Venture. However, the size of the project has not been revealed and still undergo "tendering"/government's approval.

(This project has high chance and might be announce "soon", depending on 1MDB & Government.)

3)  He said that the Joint Venture with Mulpha is still going on, Mulpha has bought the land. However, they might "wait and see" the market. The launching might be after GST...

He said that the property market is quite quiet now...

(I was totally speechless when heard this =.='')

 4) When I asked about the 0 orderbook;

He said that he agreed that Mudajaya has 0 orderbook for quite a period of time. This is because the company strategy is rather not to get the job if the job has low profit margin/loss, as it is a waste of manpower & resources. He gave example of BinaPuri only getting 1% of profit margin. He said that Mudajaya has high profit margin among construction company. He also explained that Mudajaya can easily win several projects, for example, UiTM (Couldn't remember the name, I know is a University/College) but they chose not to tender the project as it was not profitable.

5) He further explained that the company is not sitting duck/ doing nothing while there was 0 orderbook. The CEO has been aggressively venturing into renewable energy in Indonesia/ Philippines to create recurring income.

To sum up, Mudajaya will still having tough time in the next 6 months...


Looks like the share price will still heading South for some time, wandering what the MUDAJAYA menagement is doing??

Ebola fears... SUPERMAX up 19 sen.

The Star Online:

KUALA LUMPUR: Glove-makers bucked the weaker broad market on Friday as investors saw buying opportunities amid expectations of a surge demand in gloves following the outbreak of Ebola virus in Africa.

At 11.12am, Supermax was up 14 sen to RM2.31, Kossan added nine sen to RM4.10 while Adventa gained eight sen to RM1.12 and Top Glove edged up seven sen to RM4.70.
The FBM KLCI fell 4.85 points to 1,866.51. Turnover was 864.71 million shares valued at RM564.67mil. Losers beat gainers 527 to 179 while 276 counters were unchanged.
Reuters reported Sierra Leone has declared a state of emergency and called in troops to quarantine Ebola victims, joining neighbouring Liberia in imposing controls as the death toll from the outbreak of the virus hit 729 in West Africa.

The World Health Organisation said it would launch a US$100mil response plan on Friday during a meeting with the affected nations in Guinea. It is in urgent talks with donors and international agencies to send more medical staff and resources to the region, it said.

The WHO on Thursday reported 57 new deaths in the four days to July 27 in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Nigeria, raising the death toll to 729. It said the number of Ebola cases had topped 1,300.


病毒肆虐 美元升值 手套股回春 涨势难测



Up to last Friday, Supermax had up ~7.8% from by purchasing price, this was not expected for short terms. wish the disaster will end soon..

Saturday, July 26, 2014

牛市熊市三步曲, My Final Portfolio Optimization

 Captured from 牛市熊市三步曲.





A few activities i had made in last few days to fine tune my portfolio based on current status (牛市第三期). Did realize that in pass 1 month or 2, a lot of cash rich counter had move up in spike says 20 - 50%, this told me that the last phase of bull market is almost here, once all these cash rich counters had raised, the final group of penny lousy counter will be the last push for the bull. I really don't like to put a lot of capital in the penny lousy stock, so i have to catch up with the last round of raise of cash rich company, once take profit from there then i will start to back off liao!! this is my target, help me to achieve it and not been over taken by the greedy inside me :P

Alright, the changes that i had made in pass 1 week is to focus on shifted some of my counter to those under estimate counter although it is very hard to find one today. firstly i have to SWAP with my current counter, FIAMMA and LATITUD had been taken off from my portfolio with 2 reasons:

1. Both had came down 3% (my stop loss point) from my enter price, so to follow rules, i will need to sale it. (FIAMMA - enter 2.12, now 2.07, LATITUD - enter 3.09, now 2.99).

2. Lesser and lesser momentum to move up after 1 round of increase in share price. Its unlike UliCorp, this 2 counter seems to have a hard time to move up further and if look at the future on Latitud, the shutdown in Vietnam will definitely impact her revenue for upcoming quarter, thus, before it can recover, the phase 3 bull should be passed. where else for FIAMMA, the reason i bot in is his stable business (home use electric equit and property), but looking at the market, targeting for stable business just seem not right for me if i want to increase my gain in stock market now.

In fact, both are good counters , just i decided to invest together with the Mr market. By selling of this 2 counters, i swap to MARCO and WEIDA.


1. Cash rich "2013年财报注 明公司拥有4千1百50万的现金"
2. High DY.
3. The Business: do you use Casio product??
4. The share price is not really moving yet
5. PE ~12. not so attractive but still fair.
6. Top 30 share holders holds about 54% of total share.


1. Cash rich company after sold off the plantation business
2. The share price is not really moving yet
3. low PE and under value.

A lot of discussion on this counter at I3investors can have a look on this guys.

below is the latest portfolio with the % of my capital:

18% WEIDA @ 1.86 (cash rich, super under value and not yet move at the day i buy)
10% MACRO @ 0.17 (cash rich, not yet move with high DY)
15% MUDAJAYA @ 2.58 (close to 25 week low, profit coming on it way)
19% SUPERMX @ 2.17 (close to 52 wk low, recovered from production issue, increase profit)

24% CHINAPOWR @ 2.9 HKD (Blue Chip, main power supply in China)

will the 4 local counter to be the last piece of 遗珠? lets see. From now on, i will stop any buy in activities for other counter, the only thing that i might do is to swap my CHINAPOWER/MARCO to WEIDA, out of these counter WEIDA, might be the safest bet :), bottom line! make profit! but how to decide when to run?? hahahaha... there will be some way to know that and i will try to provide it in this round of market.

Friday, July 18, 2014

Pray for MH17....

It is shocking me this morning when saw a lot of new of MAS flight MH17 was borough down by missile over Eastern of Ukraine .. what a sad thing of this! what had went wrong? so many flight moving through that area everyday but why only MAS so bad luck??

Total of 295 peoples had loss their life in this incident, it is not so easy for me to accept that 2 plane incident on MAS in 4 months...

RIP MH17...

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Supermax @ 2.16

Enter Supermax @ 2.16

I had been eying the glove counter for few weeks, comparing few glove makers, below is some of my though on timing:
1. Supermax is having the lowest PE at this moment with about 11, TG is running around 15 and KOSSAN is 18.
2. TG and KOSSAN start to move a bit already and left only Supermax. Yesterday it closes at flat but there is a spike up to 2.2+ during lunch time.
3. Weekly volume starts to pick up in pass 3 weeks, 10 days average price start to trend up.

*From TradeSignum
Business point of view, global glove demand is always in increasing trend but it is slow and steady kind of uptrend, unless there is a global illness issue like SARS kind of thing, else i don't think the market will react actively with this kind of silent growth, thus i do not expect the share price to shot up spiky unless it get goreng, but long term, it should be trend up to reflect the actual value of the company. from 2013 annual report, the CEO Stanley Thai had mentioned that Supermax had set up a sales office and store in US Chicago, this move is encouraging as US is the major market of medical glove. On top of this, on June 2014, Stanley also highlight that that company is moving into RUSSIA and other ASIAN counter as they are seeing more business opportunity here. it is obvious that the company is aggressively improving the market share and looking for new business opportunity. In negative side, China is also aggressively expanding their market share in glove industry, this remain a competitive challenge to the company with the potential risk of oversupply. We see this effect in pass one year on all Malaysia glove makers.

*From I3invetor page
As for the accounting figure of Supermax, latest 2 quarters is running with low revenue mainly due to the output shortage caused by the fire of her manufacturing site in Alor Gajah, the manufacturing line is expected to be fully recovered by Sept/Oct 14. Thus, it should be any issue there. Debt wise, obviously Supermax is not a cash rich company for now, however, with the business outlook that they have, it is acceptable to me if they reserve the money for business expending. 
*From 2013 Supermx Annual Report
Share holder wise, top 3 share holders had taken up about 42% of total share, and top 30 share holders had consumed up to 65% of total share. EPF is the 3rd largest share holder but its only takes about 6.25%. Top 2 shares holder is Mr and Ms Stanley Thai. Recently EPF is keep on selling but the company is keep on buying back, from here, i can feel that the company is quite confident with their future especially the key share holder.
*From Q1-2014 Supermx Quarter Report
*From 2013 Supermx Annual Report
"On the dividend front, similarly to FYE2012, the Company has paid out an interim 4% tax exempt dividend for FYE2013 and the Board has proposed a final 6% tax exempt dividend which is subject to shareholders’ approval at the upcoming Annual General Meeting. This is largely in line with our aim to pay out 30% of Profit after Tax (increased from 20% prior to FY2012) in order to further reward our loyal and supportive shareholders". -- Supermax 2013 Annual Report
The Company also aiming of giving 30% of profit after tax as dividend to the share holder. From here, it seems like Supermax is not a aggressive 成长股 anymore, well, it still a good news for me anyway.

Based on above brief review, my plan is to invest 30% of my capital in Supermax with buy in 3 steps $2.16, $2.20, $2.24. cut loss at $2.05 (5%). i set the cut loss at 5% is because for me, Supermax is already hitting the bottom, if it went down further at current market, which mean she have some background issue that not known by me. while for accumulation, i buy in 3 stage with 3% increase in share price so that i can make sure i riding on the correct trend and secure my capital if anything went wrong tomorrow.

With the recovery of the production line, i expect the EPS for 2014 to be around 16cent (3.9 for 1st and 2nd Q due to pending production line recovery and 4.7 for Q3 and Q4 with full recovery of the production line) and with the fair PE of 16 in glove industry, the TP for Supermax should be around $2.56. This is equal to around 16% return of my investment. However, I’m going to apply止损不止赚like what i did on ULICORP, the decision of sell will be based on volume and share price momentum. :)

I know it is not responsible to write a lot here and ask you to buy on your own risk, but i still want to say that, buy on your own risk :)