Friday, August 31, 2018

FAJAR (7047) - Q4 2018 Quarter Report - Slam Slam Slam!

FAJAR (7047) released their Q4 result, quite disappointed with it, QoQ and YoY both drop >50%.

Looking into each segment, all are under perform compared to Q4 2017 except construction. FAJAR's revenue are mainly contributed by Construction, Timber and Property Development. however, the segment that contribute the most to it profit margin are Timber & Property Development, and both of this segments are bad. Even the revenue from the Construction sector has improved a lot, but the contribution to the profit margin is significantly lower compare to the 2 key main segments.

Prospect:The only positive point is the management kind of confident that Timber business is coming back, the rest seems like still expect to struggle for a while... what the f.. hahaha

Share price to day had slit ~11%. It had came to my cut loss point, If Monday have no sign of recovery, than i have to cut loss despite the bad performance and the uncertain future profit.

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Never Buy Another Stock Again - David Gaffen


- 把那么多资金投资在股市合理吗?还是这其实是你的贪婪与投机心态?
- 非买股票的话就不可以长抱。
- 随时准备把表现不佳的资产套现就算是再好的公司。
- 请考虑投资成本,它可能是最大的致命伤。
- 市场消息听听就好,历史上它的准确率非常低。
- 投资个股回酬率不比指数基金好,长期来说。
- 投资多样化的定义不在于标的多寡,而是各个投资项目的关联率。
- 建议的投资组合 - 股票:商品:bond:gov bond = 50:10:20:20.
- 投资组合再平衡在某个时间点上可以降低高风险投指标的资金曝光率。


Sunday, August 19, 2018

Hanwell - Aug'18

Hanwell announced their Q2'18 report on 10th Aug, below are some highlights captured from the report.

Consumer Business: +4.47% in 2Q18 (+4.22% 1H18) mainly due to higher distribution sales from Malaysia. Distribution in Singapore is actually lower compare to last Q due to close down of the retail shops (how come i not aware this??), actually not much info about Singapore retail market. Growth in Malaysia market is kind of good new, however, there is a risk of RM running weak, so lets see the performance for the next report. Comment on overall consumer business was highlighted as below: Price hike of rice is beginning to stabilize especially from Thailand and Vietnam. Forward purchase planning in this segment will be essential to sustain current gross profits till end of the year. Price hike for both pulp and recycled paper for the paper products has stabilized. However, margins in this sector are under pressure due to retail price increase lagging behind raw materials cost increase. So the blame goes to price of raw material.

Packaging Business: +30.5% in 2Q18 (+24.6% 1H18) nothing special as the growth are expected to be coming from China operation. looks good but need to note of some key point mentioned by Alan:
  1. Singapore’s operating environment is expected to remain challenging for the Packaging business segment with the increase of raw material costs in anticipation of unfavourable exchange fluctuation of SGD against USD and the volatility of raw material prices.
  2. For China's operations of the Packaging business segment, the escalation of trade tension between US and China will impact its export. This will further aggravate the over-capacity of corrugator packaging industry and lead to more intense competition of the industry.
  3. Also in China, the stringent pollution control regulations of China government
  4. The potential of unfavourable exchange fluctuation of RMB against USD will result in increase in raw materials costs.
Notwithstanding this segment will continue to execute its strategy to improve operational efficiencies and further reduce costs diligently. The Packaging business segment is expected to commence the operation of its new production line of Nantong Tat Seng in the fourth quarter of 2018.

While for the financial statement, below are some highlights for me to take as notes:

  • Property, plant and equipment written off was not there last year
  • Inventory is higher, the explanation is last year inventory low due to peak season in Dec'17 - Wah! like that also can!
  • Net cash generated from operating activities is actually lower in 2018 ya!
As summary, Hanwell still running fine with some white spot here and there. The share price never move a lot after this report, so definitely this is an boring counter, also there is where to find a net - net stock. The purpose of investing in Hanwell is to have capital growth, and that should come from the share price movement, so far i still haven't see any solid movement despite they reported kind of "good" result in 2Q. Despite the RM would likely continue to go weaker based on current trend and a lot of uncertainty of the trade war between China and US, overall Hawell still have his business under good control. I will keep Hanwell for awhile until end of the year,

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Beating the Street - Peter Lynch.John Rothschild



后话:STI 高位慢调整,组合没有需要变动的,暂时不会加仓手上任何股(纸面亏损近7%,Apptv除外),接下来会分析新加坡reit,然后存钱等美美的价位再建仓。

Monday, August 13, 2018

Weekly Review - 0812

The main activity for this week is to dispo my Asian Pay Tv. It is sad but is a must do with the reason that i shared in my previous post. After i dispo the Asian Pay Tv, i quickly SWAP to some other stock. Fajar and Malton are the 2 stocks that quickly take up my capital from the disposition of Asian Pay Tv. Why Fajar and Malton? first of all, this 2 counters were mentioned in the "Rainmakers", well, thanks to the page and i stretch a bit to check out the feasibility to invest in this 2 counters. Together, i put in a fundamental comparison with Ekovest, Destini and WCT as well. Again, the goal is to look for Malaysia MID CAP developers who have good fundamental, good earning capability and reasonable dividend pay out.

Above data captured from 7th Aug (all except Ekovest) to 13 Aug (Ekovest) through can see that Fajar and Malton are the top 2. Based on market CAP, WCT is not really the same batch with the rest and i put it in just as a refferance since it is one of my closely monitored counter.

Fajar have a mix business with additional income from Timber, so to be honest, by putting Fajar in the list to compare is really not an apple 2 apple comparison but rather orange and Mandarin orange comparison. As for Malton, it comes with the honer from Pavilion and some good project on hand is definitely some positive point for it. another key reason for selecting this 2 is, they both have the top 2 highest dividend payout based on current price. In view of their trend, both had kind of recover from bottom with >10% recovery liao, enter at this point will be more comfortable for me since the trend shows recovery and not batting on the re bounce.


For the strategy, the capital from Asia Pay Tv will be divided into 2 and invested in Fajar and Malton @ the price of RM 0.495 and RM 0.655 respectively. Any cut loss? based on the trend and EMA, Fajar should cut at 0.485 while Malton should cut at 0.61, anyway, I'm not so certain about the cut loss price at this moment since the Fundamental for this 2 counters are reasonable to hold for mid to long term with current enter price. Both counter will have their quarter result published in Aug'18, so lets see how it goes.
Below is my updated portfolio:
Key Notes:
  1. Swap from Asia Pay Tv to Fajar and Malton, loss of ~26$ from Asian Pay Tv :(
  2. Singtel reported their latest Quarter result on 8th Aug with drop in revenue, share price impacted immediately since 10th Aug.
  3. Hanwell reported their latest Quarter result on 13th Aug, which is higher than Q2'17, today is the first day the share price reflected the good news. 

Wednesday, August 8, 2018

The TOP 10 Distinctions Between Millionaires and The Middle Class. Keith Cameron Smith

  1. 衡量财富的时间轴,有钱人在乎一年可赚多少;薪水族计较一个月领多少薪水
  2. 有钱人谈观念;薪水族聊是非
  3. 有钱人乐于改变;薪水族抗拒改变,这里讲的是持续性的
  4. 有钱人乐于冒险及精算得失;薪水族害怕离开舒适圈
  5. 有钱人不断学习;薪水族在毕业后就不愿学习。我认为这里的learning指的是所有事情,而不是单一的专业领域
  6. 有钱人掌握时机赚钱,薪水族希望安稳领月薪
  7. 有钱人做钱的主人,乐于分享不计较;薪水族为钱工作,分毫计算怕吃亏
  8. 有钱人慷慨不亲力亲为,拥有消极收入;薪水族吝啬靠自己,着重于积极收入
  9. 有钱人专注于全部财产的增加;薪水族只关心工资涨幅有多少
  10. 有钱人习惯往好方向思考,进入好循环;薪水族经常朝坏方面抱怨,陷入恶循环

Tuesday, August 7, 2018

A Review on Asian Pay Television Trust

APPTV just announced their latest quarter report, such a disapointed result. Infact, it is not totally unexpected, this is what capture from the latest Q-report end 30 Jun 2018:

In constant Taiwan dollars (“NT$”), revenue down 4.1% for the quarter and 4.9% for the half-year as foreign exchange contributed 2.5% negative variance for the quarter and 1.8% for the half-year
  • Basic Cable TV: Down 4.6% for the quarter and 5.6% for the half-year in constant NT$ terms mainly due to lower subscription revenue, driven by marginally lower number of subscribers and ARPU compared to the pcp, and lower revenue generated from channel leasing partially offset by higher airtime advertising sales.
  • Premium Digital Cable TV: Down 10.4% for the quarter and 9.2% for the half-year in constant NT$ terms. Generated predominantly from TBC’s average Premium digital cable TV RGUs each contributing an ARPU of NT$133 per month during the quarter for Premium digital cable TV packages, bundled DVR or DVR-only services.
  • Broadband: Up marginally for the quarter and remained broadly unchanged for the half-year in constant NT$ terms. Generated predominantly from TBC’s average Broadband RGUs each contributing an ARPU of NT$439 per month during the quarter for high-speed Broadband services.
Total operating expenses: Lower operating expenses, mainly due to lower broadcast and production costs, staff costs and other operating expenses.

Below table tell a better story:
In short, the game still on with increase RGUs in Premium digital cable TV but hidden rock shows ARPU for both of the so call potential savior for APTV is not making and real income (claim to be due to spending for promotions and discounted bundled packages that were offered to generate new RGUs and to retain existing RGUs.

A sad part from the report is below highlighted statment were spotted in the Outlook statement:

==> To support some of the above-mentioned initiatives, the Board of directors is of the view that the distribution per unit in 2019 is likely to be lowered.

My intepretations:
1. The situation is bad, management have no confident to recover the weak performance.
2. DPU lower always not a good thing for me.

A side thought: Do youconfident that APTv can recover the situations by cutting the DPU and with above plan? It all went back to the business that APTv is doing. With that says, i had decided to cut loss at this point, sold off all i have @ 0.40 and take the loss of ~26%. A simple reason, APTv have no longer meet my needs as the future DPU is not secure, so just cut and move on.

I had swap to some Malaysia construction counter. update in next blogging.