Weekly Review - 0812

The main activity for this week is to dispo my Asian Pay Tv. It is sad but is a must do with the reason that i shared in my previous post. After i dispo the Asian Pay Tv, i quickly SWAP to some other stock. Fajar and Malton are the 2 stocks that quickly take up my capital from the disposition of Asian Pay Tv. Why Fajar and Malton? first of all, this 2 counters were mentioned in the "Rainmakers", well, thanks to the page and i stretch a bit to check out the feasibility to invest in this 2 counters. Together, i put in a fundamental comparison with Ekovest, Destini and WCT as well. Again, the goal is to look for Malaysia MID CAP developers who have good fundamental, good earning capability and reasonable dividend pay out.

Above data captured from 7th Aug (all except Ekovest) to 13 Aug (Ekovest) through investing.com. can see that Fajar and Malton are the top 2. Based on market CAP, WCT is not really the same batch with the rest and i put it in just as a refferance since it is one of my closely monitored counter.

Fajar have a mix business with additional income from Timber, so to be honest, by putting Fajar in the list to compare is really not an apple 2 apple comparison but rather orange and Mandarin orange comparison. As for Malton, it comes with the honer from Pavilion and some good project on hand is definitely some positive point for it. another key reason for selecting this 2 is, they both have the top 2 highest dividend payout based on current price. In view of their trend, both had kind of recover from bottom with >10% recovery liao, enter at this point will be more comfortable for me since the trend shows recovery and not batting on the re bounce.

Fajar

 

 Malton

For the strategy, the capital from Asia Pay Tv will be divided into 2 and invested in Fajar and Malton @ the price of RM 0.495 and RM 0.655 respectively. Any cut loss? based on the trend and EMA, Fajar should cut at 0.485 while Malton should cut at 0.61, anyway, I'm not so certain about the cut loss price at this moment since the Fundamental for this 2 counters are reasonable to hold for mid to long term with current enter price. Both counter will have their quarter result published in Aug'18, so lets see how it goes.

 

Below is my updated portfolio:

 

Key Notes:

1. Swap from Asia Pay Tv to Fajar and Malton, loss of ~26$ from Asian Pay Tv :(
2. Singtel reported their latest Quarter result on 8th Aug with drop in revenue, share price impacted immediately since 10th Aug.
3. Hanwell reported their latest Quarter result on 13th Aug, which is higher than Q2'17, today is the first day the share price reflected the good news. 

 

 

Singtel - 4th Jul'18

Singtel closed at 3.02 yesterday, what a direct flight from ~3.40 to current price. So what drives to this trend? The logic seems works for me, main trigger from May 17: Singtel announced the Q4 and 2018 Final report:

•  Revenue increased (+4.9%) but the underlying net profit dropped (-7.8%) if exclude the gain from the disposition of NetLink Trust.
• Revenue increase for all the sector except for the National Phone and International Phone, this 2 consist of a small portion of the revenue @ ~8%, something to note but not big.
• Operation profit dropped mainly from the result of a decline in Airtel’s India earnings and charges from increased network investments and spectrum.
• 2018 total Div payout is ~81% (include all the special div). This is good for 2018 but no longer for future where by the Div payout will be fixed at 17.5ct for the next 2 FY. Resume the 60-75% Div payout only by FY21.
• Expect stable “single digit” profit for next 2 years before Singtel can see anything increase in the profit.

Recent share buyback (actually very tiny if compare to the overall all Cap size of SingTel.):

• May 17: SGD ~1 mil @ SGD3.42/3.43
• May28: SGD ~ 0.44mil @ SGD 3.34

Risk:

• Increase of compaction in Singapore telco market with new players coming in end of this year.
• India Telco join venture is facing hard fight with new competitor.
• Invrstment cost.

What Singtel is doing so far (According to the latest annual report):

• Singtel embarked on a company-wide digital transformation more than five years ago to rebuild our business around data and digital. As digital eroded industry barriers and disrupted old business models, going digital has meant developing strategies that go beyond the context of our telco industry. Instead, we have leveraged our telco assets and customer relationships to develop new businesses such as cyber security, digital marketing and smart city solutions. We have also begun building a digital ecosystem with our associates to aggregate millions of customers across the region. As digital
• Had revolutionized consumer behavior and company processes, we have also digitalised our core consumer and enterprise businesses.
• Our new growth initiatives have grown from strength to strength – our digital and ICT businesses now contribute nearly 25% of Group revenue.

The reason i buy in:

• Share price @ 52 weeks low (S$3.4 at that point of time)
• Good div pay out and stable track record
• Singapore blue chip
• Regional dai kor for Telco
• Sound solid management (based on the road map and transform seen on Singtel)

Any changes against my reason of purchase?

• Share price @ 52 weeks low -> No, now even lower... haha
• Good div pay out and stable track record -> announced fix DY for 17.5ct for next 2 FY and resume in FY21, still acceptable to me.
• Singapore blue chip -> No change
• Regional dai kor for Telco -> No change
• Sound solid management (based on the road map and transform seen on Singtel) -> No key person changes

Conclusion:

• Hold at this moment in view of Div payout in Aug.
• Expect small re-bounce after reason heavy sell.

- Temporary have no plan to top up, lets see the share price movement in this few days as well as after the Annual GM on 7/24.

Singtel (SGX: Z74)

基本面：

新加坡电信老大。和其他两家电信（StarHub, M1）比较的话，SingTel 在新加坡的mobile market share有49%，不过只有30%的盈利是来自新加坡，另外22%和48%来自澳洲与其他亚太地区的电信投资（摘自2017年报），总结是她的风险管理我个人觉得一流，毕竟新加坡竞争强，市场小，新加坡以外的机会比较多。

盈利方面是很稳定的，派息也很规律。前景的话，SingTel 在几年前就已经部署进军digitalisation sector，大概就是big data, cloud, cyber securities, smart city 等等，盼了几年，最近终于开始供应盈利了，这也是为什么他们不急于react to M1在新加坡的数据削价战，人家志不在此啊。总的来说，Singtel的管理方式是倾向于稳健的风险管理，加上长远的投资（比如三年前的策略性进军digitalisation sector）。

最大股东就是新加坡政府咯，淡马锡52%，外资14%，新加坡本地市场大概12%。所以股价变化不大是可以理解的。

数据的话蛮不错的（from Investing.com up to 2017 annual data)

- 双位数ROI: 14.6%
- GM: 52%
- OM: 27.4%
- NPM: 32% (投资贡献盈利比较多）
- D to E ratio: 32%

SingTel 的 PE (TTM) 大概在10，比起StarHub 和M1 (16&12)是比较低的。如果考虑到规模问题，那就要和Axiata 比较了，Axiata PE 在56，所以也不用看了。哈哈。

技术面：

52周新低在 S$ 3.30, 今天S$ 3.41。图表的话，自从一八年三月创了新低后，底部价在慢慢往上升，还需要几个月时间看会不会是上升趋势。下一道上升阻力大概在S$ 3.54 和 S$ 3.65。

策略：

增持：S$ 3.20 - S$ 3.30
止损：S$ 3.10 (-10%)

SingTel 会是我尝试巴哥和芒哥的另一种投资策略，即是以合理价（不是低估价）买入优质股。我在五月初买入，价钱在S$ 3.41，目前占portfolio的二十出趴。止损点放在S$ 3.10，原因是因为她的周息率其实很稳定，在5%左右，况且S$ 3.30已经是五年新低了，感觉不太可能到这个价位，除非新加坡经济倒退五年？哈哈。名牌股就收就一点咯。