Samgoss said...
As i said , FA 4 knm is 50/50 , price tumled from 1.50 to 0.40+ is due 2 d borsig acquisition, d question here is " is current price @0.40+reflected d true value ? gearing far too high! read d below :-根據ＫＮＭ的Managing Director，Lee Swee Eng接受The Star採訪時說：“Meanwhile, the group does not expect any impairment for the acquisition of Borsig although the values of assets around the world have tumbled significantly. We bought it based on multiple PE (price-to-earnings) and we did a purchase evaluation. We don’t foresee any impairment”.（“同時，本集團不認為購置Borsig有任何減值，雖然世界各地的資產價值有顯著下跌。我們買它基於本益比（股格收益），我們做了購買的評價。我們沒有預見到任何損害” 。）到底收購Borsig的真相是什麼？ ＫＮＭ未收購Borsig前的２００７年營業額是12億3千萬馬幣，收購後根據已經發佈９個月的數據，營業額估計是22億3千5百萬馬幣，約增長1億零5百64萬馬幣或８１.７％，ＫＮＭ說主要是來自Borsig的貢獻，因此我們可以大概推斷新增的營業額主要來自Borsig。 利潤率(Margin)則大體維持在未收購Borsig前的１５％。因此可以大概估計，Borsig的估計1億零5百64萬馬幣的營業額以１５％利潤率計算，淨利約1億5千萬馬幣。 為了收購Borsing，ＫＮＭ向Malayan Banking Berhad 借了7億4千8百萬馬幣；人民幣借款5千1百75萬；歐元1億7千3百萬和加幣1億1百萬。合共12億4千1百83萬馬幣。 ＫＮＭ總共用了16億4千5百萬馬幣收購Borsig（約3.5億歐元）ＫＮＭ是否真有給足Borsig 16億4千5百萬馬幣我不肯定，但是跟據ＫＮＭ的財務數據的推斷，以16億4千5百萬馬幣收購淨利才1億5千萬馬幣的公司，本益比高達１６倍，而且是在石油產業巔峰時期的價錢計算，怎樣都不能說是一個好交易。 而根據ＫＮＭ的Balance Sheet，收購Borsig產生的商譽(Goodwill)高達15億6千零22萬馬幣。以此推斷，Borsig的淨資產只不過約8千4百78萬馬幣，收購價竟然是淨資產的１８.４倍！這簡直是離譜的收購價！ 根本不是ＫＮＭ的Managing Director，Lee Swee Eng所說的：“Meanwhile, the group does not expect any impairment for the acquisition of Borsig although the values of assets around the world have tumbled significantly. We bought it based on multiple PE (price-to-earnings) and we did a purchase evaluation. We don’t foresee any impairment”. Lee Swee Eng簡直在胡說八道！根據推算出來的１６倍本益比和１８.４倍市淨率的收購價，顯然１６倍本益比的數據並不可靠，因為財務報表中，淨利是最不可靠的數據。如果依據Borsig的淨利的話，它的ＲＯＥ則高達１７６％！這怎麼可能？ＢＡＴ（英美菸草）也沒這麼利害！ 所以我敢十分肯定，Borsig的盈利肯定是假數據，難怪Borsig的網站沒有提供淨利和淨資產數據。事實上收購Borsig後，除了帳面數字外，根本看不到實際的業績成長？ 根據Borsig淨資產的數據估計，即使表現再好，淨利最多也不過1千3百萬，如此收購價的真實本益比則高達１２６倍，Borsig甚至也可能是虧本公司？到此......真相終於大白！ ＫＮＭ的外資股東可以很容易通過德國商務部查一查Borsig是什麼東西，當這些外資知道ＫＮＭ以１８.４倍市淨率收購Borsig的真相後，你說他們會不會即刻逃之夭夭？ 這就說明為何ＫＮＭ宣佈收購Borsig後，外資會不計成本的瘋狂賣出。各為股民們應該對當時ＫＮＭ股價一路狂瀉的印象記憶猶新吧？這種跌法絕對不是一個正常藍籌股該有的跌法，其實已經告訴股民裡面已經有大問題了！ 因此我堅決相信，收購Borsig其實是“圈錢”計劃！Borsig的背景，實在令人懷疑...... 根據ＫＮＭ的INCOME STATEMENT提供的折舊數額如下：我平時計算時因有計算Amortisation，所以習慣使用Fixed Assets一併計算，這裡因為只談有形資產，所以就採取Property, Plant and Equipment(PPE)計算。Property, Plant and Equipment的數額：2003=82,8312004=95,3432005=139,3452006=393,9552007=468,973如果以PPE計算，計算INCOME STATEMENT的折舊，折舊年份如下：2003=61年2004=44年2005=76年2006=157年2007=185年如此計算，ＫＮＭ顯然折舊不足，明顯有問題。但是如何計算ＫＮＭ的TOTAL折舊呢？結果如下：2003=21年2004=14年2005=15年2006=20年2007=18年根據如此計算，折舊似乎又正確起來了？但是，如果仔細分析，就會發現很多不對路的地方！１.根據會計準則，當期消耗的，應該是費用，而不是折舊，折舊的東西必須未來可以為公司創造收入的資產才能使用。Construction work-in-progress能夠算是嗎？２.Construction work-in-progress是屬於Trade Receivables項目。也就說，它的款項已經拿入營業額，款項納入營業額，依據權責制，其相關的風險，收益，權益，虧損等應該屬於客戶，不應該屬於ＫＮＭ，即使該工程還沒交付給顧客，也不應該再由ＫＮＭ承當，所以為何Construction work-in-progress的折舊可以那入ＫＮＭ的開支？３.Construction work-in-progress的折舊屬於Trade Receivables項目，也就是Current Assets，它是不可以和屬於Fixed Assets的Property, Plant and Equipment互相計算比較，所以用TOTAL折舊來計算出來的折舊年份，本質上就不合理！４.我們可以從Balance Sheet看到，Property, Plant and Equipment該項資產佔總資產約４０％－５０％左右，為何屬於它們的折舊率（INCOME STATEMENT部分），佔TOTAL折舊的比例這麼小？５.如果看看ＫＮＭ的其它同行，如WASEONG(華商控股)，或者其它，你們不會看到它們像ＫＮＭ這樣處理折舊項目。這樣的話解釋只有２個：一是ＫＮＭ作假；而是其他的同行作假。根據ＫＮＭ這種折舊處理手法，我的感覺是： ＫＮＭ將折舊開支分攤到Construction work-in-progress（Trade Receivables）,以此降低自己的開支，從而提高盈利。而ＫＮＭ的Trade Receivables本質上就有很多問題！ＫＮＭ的收入９０％來自海外公司，而海外公司又是審計所無法審核的。其海外子公司提供的單據是否有問題？根劇ＫＮＭ的帳目顯示，它的收賬能力非常差勁，只看到它現金不斷流出，卻看不到有多少現金流入公司帳戶，流動經營能力之差，是大馬石油業之最，只比ＰＥＴＲＡ好而已。因此，該Trade Receivables已經有問題了，屬於Trade Receivables的Construction work-in-progress中的折舊，可靠性有多高.2 swing traders, trade @ yr own risk ^V^
February 6, 2009 9:57 AM
KNM 4th Q results is out, the net profit still growing compared to last quarter, but why still so many big share holder throwing the stock?? nice to think of it...
Friday, February 27, 2009
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
投机好辛苦啊！！
Actually... today i want to play contra de.... which counter? WCT and AA la... y?
WCT already hit by the bad news since few weeks back and the price is low enough, (although i know tht in this type of market, if u think is low, it can be more low). with the low PE oso had make me more confortable to play contra.
For AA, the Sunday news regarding the cancelation of the new airport project at NS had bring positive sign on its cash flow, it should shows some reflect on it share price.
Any how, i didn't buy anything today. y?
1st, i scare.
2nd, is not a good investment habit (very strugering me).
Look at WCT today, open at 1.06 and close at 1.04, highest and lowest price are 1.09 and 1.04, with 3 days contra play, i had loss the 1st day, what will happen for the next 2 days? who knows? Keep for long terms? if got cash ok la... but contra play mean with nothing and u create somthing ma, that y called 投机．．
For AA, open at 0.875 and close at daily highest price of 0.895 no comment, same to say that i don know what will happen tomorrow and the day after tomorrow before contra expired. if we talk about long terms play or FA play, AA for sure not my cup of tea at this moment!
Contra play is not like swing trade, contra play make me feel worried because i'm gambling and it is based on nothing, no FA base and no whateva base, who knows AA or WCT will go up or down with this kind of news?
记得，别投机！！投机让你心神不宁，这又何苦呢？
WCT already hit by the bad news since few weeks back and the price is low enough, (although i know tht in this type of market, if u think is low, it can be more low). with the low PE oso had make me more confortable to play contra.
For AA, the Sunday news regarding the cancelation of the new airport project at NS had bring positive sign on its cash flow, it should shows some reflect on it share price.
Any how, i didn't buy anything today. y?
1st, i scare.
2nd, is not a good investment habit (very strugering me).
Look at WCT today, open at 1.06 and close at 1.04, highest and lowest price are 1.09 and 1.04, with 3 days contra play, i had loss the 1st day, what will happen for the next 2 days? who knows? Keep for long terms? if got cash ok la... but contra play mean with nothing and u create somthing ma, that y called 投机．．
For AA, open at 0.875 and close at daily highest price of 0.895 no comment, same to say that i don know what will happen tomorrow and the day after tomorrow before contra expired. if we talk about long terms play or FA play, AA for sure not my cup of tea at this moment!
Contra play is not like swing trade, contra play make me feel worried because i'm gambling and it is based on nothing, no FA base and no whateva base, who knows AA or WCT will go up or down with this kind of news?
记得，别投机！！投机让你心神不宁，这又何苦呢？
Monday, February 2, 2009
KNM
If we talk about the trading volume, KNM always become the 1st or 2nd in KLSE, all the time you can see that her volume is high enough to scare you.. hehe.. It is a good sign for swing trade especially in this bear market lol... 起得快，跌得也快。。
Ok, let see KNM got how much 斤两。。 what this company doing now is to design, manufacture & assembling the equipment that is needed for oil and gas sectors. talk about this for sure it is highly influence by the crude oil price lol... (Sectors analysis still not reach home yet, roughly KNM should be involve in the oil and gas sectors, pai seh :P), and from her volume record, it definitely is a counter that suka di goreng by all those 炒家 out there...
Back to the FA point of view for KNM. For the pass results, her revenue increased every year since 2004 and it always increase more then 50% each year and start to slow down from 2006 to 2007. In terms of EPS, it also keep on growing by 1 times up compared to every previous year (but also slow down from 2006 to 2007), RoE always >15% from 2004 onward.
If look at latest Q report (Q3 08), the gearing is high and up to 1.02 due to 1656M of current liability, this consider very risky especially in this kind of sick market. Other then this nothing much special that we can see from the Q report.
For KNM, it is not a FA counter due to her high gearing, but any how it is good for swing trade due to the high volume and the sector that they are working on. I would say for KNM, we still can made profit by hit and run, agree? i have few lots on hand and i had miss out the good time to let go at last month due to greedy, hope that this time i can catch the chance and let go, soon or later buy bc at lower prices, my AP = 0.44, TP = o.50 (13%) and will buy back at any <0.42, if the price still heading south, i'll hold and wait for the Q4 report announcement.
Ok, let see KNM got how much 斤两。。 what this company doing now is to design, manufacture & assembling the equipment that is needed for oil and gas sectors. talk about this for sure it is highly influence by the crude oil price lol... (Sectors analysis still not reach home yet, roughly KNM should be involve in the oil and gas sectors, pai seh :P), and from her volume record, it definitely is a counter that suka di goreng by all those 炒家 out there...
Back to the FA point of view for KNM. For the pass results, her revenue increased every year since 2004 and it always increase more then 50% each year and start to slow down from 2006 to 2007. In terms of EPS, it also keep on growing by 1 times up compared to every previous year (but also slow down from 2006 to 2007), RoE always >15% from 2004 onward.
If look at latest Q report (Q3 08), the gearing is high and up to 1.02 due to 1656M of current liability, this consider very risky especially in this kind of sick market. Other then this nothing much special that we can see from the Q report.
For KNM, it is not a FA counter due to her high gearing, but any how it is good for swing trade due to the high volume and the sector that they are working on. I would say for KNM, we still can made profit by hit and run, agree? i have few lots on hand and i had miss out the good time to let go at last month due to greedy, hope that this time i can catch the chance and let go, soon or later buy bc at lower prices, my AP = 0.44, TP = o.50 (13%) and will buy back at any <0.42, if the price still heading south, i'll hold and wait for the Q4 report announcement.
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