In the progress to reduce the Warrent

2013 Feb - Oct, i have very little activities on stock market, mainly is monitoring and to achieve what i want to do: to cut down Warrant holding. as per the review from 2010-2012, I'm too active in running in and out from the stock market. so need to change a bit the behavior.

http://ronan1111.blogspot.com/2013/01/blog-post.html

Last post, i have 4 counters on hand which is PJDEV-WC, HAPSENG-WA, YTLPOWR-WB, and FITTERS.

2 activities i had made for pass 8 months ~

1. Swapping:

PJDEV-WC is the 1st counter i cut back in May 2013, with the 505 impact, there are slightly increase in the WC price, and i just take the opportunity to chop it off and switch to FITTERS as per plan, so, my FITTERS had increase from 120lots to 321 lots now with average price at $0.71. so one mistake here is I'm buying along the rise, some more it is sky high at ~$0.8+!! WTH!! haha.. anyway, with current PE @ 7.8, i assume still quite cheap with low Debt. lets wait and see, to date holding period is ~ close to 1 year already :)

2. Reducing Warrant:

It is never been easy for me to swap the warrant immediately, but finally i have a chance to dispo my HAPSENG-WA. total disposal of 390 lots at average price of $0.63, return of ~29% in total of ~20 months. my disposition guideline is simple for HAPSENG:
1. Parent PE is ~12 already
2. Premium is almost zero liao when is sold out my last group of stock on hand at ~0.68 ( premium @ -1%).
3. conversion date is @ 2016.. already less then 3yrs, although just marginal lower then 3 years.

To date, HAPSENG_WA standing at $0.73 and i cannot for see any solid FA reason that can further push the WA up other then "goreng". well, i might wrong, and i might not knowing the company very well.. hahaha... disposing it to look for other good opportunity then.

I had also chop off 50% of my YTLPOWR recently @ $0.60, it is ~43% of my avg price already.

So why i still keeping YTLPOWR-WB at 50% while disposing HAPSENG-WA? as both the mother also running at PE 12 and premium is also @ zero now? other then the mutual date of HAPSENG-WA is shorter then YTLPOWR-WB. lets look at below plot:

HAPSENG-WA/HAPSENG

- Premium keep dropping along 2 years. this is mainly due to mother is moving faster then the child all the time.
- Mother share price already reach 2 yrs high.
- Risk: If mother not moving further, will child moving up alone? (unlikely)

YTLPOWR-WB/YTLPOWR

 

- YTLPOWR-WB premium is fluctuating along 3 years period, at different cycle, the child seem to be catching up the mother trend pretty well, thus, the correlation is more strong between mother and child for YTLPOWR based on pass data.
- Recent low premium is due to mother moving faster in this period and based on 1st point, we might still have room for the child to catch up.
- Mother PE at 12, what is the boost that can bring the mother go even higher? I'm confident with the privatization rumour. :)

So, that is the reason i chop off HAPSENG-WA instead of YTLPOWR-WB. my target cut will be at price >$0.75.based on current gearing, the mother should be at ~$2. which i think is very likely and reasonable to but hit :)

Ok, now lets talk about what next?

the uncertainty of US QE3 plan really annoying me, well, if we purely talk about counter, I'm looking at KFIMA (PE ~6.+), MULTICO (PE ~2.+).. while continue to source low PE stock. When i screen through the counter table in the newspaper, it is hardly for me to fish out the counter with PE <10 ...="" :="" p="" sad="" so="">Lets see how it goes after i done my home work, my current cash vs stock is ~50:50 liao.