Monday, May 28, 2018

Singtel (SGX: Z74)


基本面:

新加坡电信老大。和其他两家电信(StarHub, M1)比较的话,SingTel 在新加坡的mobile market share有49%,不过只有30%的盈利是来自新加坡,另外22%和48%来自澳洲与其他亚太地区的电信投资(摘自2017年报),总结是她的风险管理我个人觉得一流,毕竟新加坡竞争强,市场小,新加坡以外的机会比较多。

盈利方面是很稳定的,派息也很规律。前景的话,SingTel 在几年前就已经部署进军digitalisation sector,大概就是big data, cloud, cyber securities, smart city 等等,盼了几年,最近终于开始供应盈利了,这也是为什么他们不急于react to M1在新加坡的数据削价战,人家志不在此啊。总的来说,Singtel的管理方式是倾向于稳健的风险管理,加上长远的投资(比如三年前的策略性进军digitalisation sector)。

最大股东就是新加坡政府咯,淡马锡52%,外资14%,新加坡本地市场大概12%。所以股价变化不大是可以理解的。

数据的话蛮不错的(from Investing.com up to 2017 annual data)

- 双位数ROI: 14.6%
- GM: 52%
- OM: 27.4%
- NPM: 32% (投资贡献盈利比较多)
- D to E ratio: 32%

SingTel 的 PE (TTM) 大概在10,比起StarHub 和M1 (16&12)是比较低的。如果考虑到规模问题,那就要和Axiata 比较了,Axiata PE 在56,所以也不用看了。哈哈。

技术面:

52周新低在 S$ 3.30, 今天S$ 3.41。图表的话,自从一八年三月创了新低后,底部价在慢慢往上升,还需要几个月时间看会不会是上升趋势。下一道上升阻力大概在S$ 3.54 和 S$ 3.65。

策略:

增持:S$ 3.20 - S$ 3.30
止损:S$ 3.10 (-10%)

SingTel 会是我尝试巴哥和芒哥的另一种投资策略,即是以合理价(不是低估价)买入优质股。我在五月初买入,价钱在S$ 3.41,目前占portfolio的二十出趴。止损点放在S$ 3.10,原因是因为她的周息率其实很稳定,在5%左右,况且S$ 3.30已经是五年新低了,感觉不太可能到这个价位,除非新加坡经济倒退五年?哈哈。名牌股就收就一点咯。

Saturday, May 19, 2018

HANWELL HOLDINGS LIMITED (恒威集团 SGX:DM0)



*基本面:生意是FMCG起家的,为了加强盈利,恒威也投资在纸箱制造。

1) FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods), 就是卖基本需求的。这样的生意好处是很stable,当然,盈利也不高。他卖什么呢?
  • 在新加坡卖米的,人家的米还是Top Seller in Singapore “Popular proprietary brands include Royal Umbrella rice, Golden Peony rice, Gitangkim rice, Okome rice, Taj Ponni rice, Harmuni rice and oil, Golden Circle oil and Soyalite oil.”
  • 也卖Tissue,年报是这样写的 “Beautex was named in the Singapore Book of Records as the first to launch a complete range of premium and economical three-ply tissue products.”
  • 还卖豆腐,“Besides specialising in soya bean-based products such as tofu and tau kwa, Fortune Food is also the pioneer in introducing Sobe, Singapore’s first fresh, pasteurised soya milk, to the local market in 1995.”
  • 还有零食,“Socma specialises in 4 main categories: confectionery, snacks, grocery items and beverages. Some of the household brands that Socma exclusively distributes include Mentos, Chupa Chups, Smint, Fruitella, Tao Kae Noi, Tai Sun, Supernut, Mazola, Soyalite, Golden Circle, Harmuni, Indomie and Jia Duo Bao(formerly called Wong Lo Kat).”他的零食基本上是卖在马来西亚。
2) 纸箱制造 (Tat Seng Packaging Group Ltd,介绍是这样写的:

Tat Seng is one of the leading manufacturers of corrugated paper packaging products listed on the mainboard of the Singapore Stock Exchange. With operations in Singapore, Suzhou, Nantong, Hefei and Tianjin in China, Tat Seng serves the packaging needs of various industries in Singapore and China by supplying a range of corrugated paper packaging products of different configurations and sizes.

Its customers include Multi-National Corporations and local manufacturers in food and beverage industry, electronics and electrical industry, plastic and metal stamping industry, pharmaceutical and chemical industry as well as the printing, publishers and converting industry. Over the years, Tat Seng has progressed through continuous improvement and has been maintaining a stronghold in the marketplace.

Tat Seng's key products include corrugated paper boards, corrugated paper cartons, die-cut boxes, assembly cartons and heavy duty corrugated paper products.

*基本面:业绩 (2014-2017年报)
  • Gross margin TTM 22.58%
  • Operating margin TTM 5.49%
  • Net Profit margin TTM 4.51%
  • Return on Investment TTM 7.48%
  • Quick Ratio MRQ 1.83
  • Current Ratio MRQ 2.07
  • LT Debt to Equity MRQ 0.08%
  • Total Debt to Equity MRQ 22.1%
盈利每年增长,除了2015掉一点。纸箱制造占65%,其他的是FMCG。个人觉得管理层风险和盈利管控都很好,唯一比较失色的是DY很低,管理层好像不是很想回馈小股东。

根据Q118季报,CPS (Cash per Share)有大概有 S$ 0.71.
这是一支 net net stock,股价已经来到52周新底了,前景不错,只是老板有点吝啬,DYU只有~1%。刚读完巴非特的Ground Rule,就买入少少看看。

*策略:
 
1) 第一批:买入价 0.225新币 (Done);
2) 第二批:低于0.22 / 0.21 (Pending).
3) 不止损
4) 长线 两年