投资成本

先不说买股票有没有赚，只要你做买卖transection，你就要付佣金了，所以今天心血来潮，想看看我这些年来买股票被投行抽的佣金有多少，就从2012到2018 七月吧。这不包括Contra，是的，我定力不足，时不时会玩Contra。

看到summary了吧？我自己都吓到！！这些是感觉不到的成本！其实，逻辑很奇怪，股市如果我们频密地做买卖，单单被抽的佣金就很可多了，还要自己操做那么高风险的投资产品？
...

有时候你不把东西画出墙是看不到的，好好研究，看定定再买，要不然陪了夫人又折兵啊！

Singtel - 4th Jul'18

Singtel closed at 3.02 yesterday, what a direct flight from ~3.40 to current price. So what drives to this trend? The logic seems works for me, main trigger from May 17: Singtel announced the Q4 and 2018 Final report:

•  Revenue increased (+4.9%) but the underlying net profit dropped (-7.8%) if exclude the gain from the disposition of NetLink Trust.
• Revenue increase for all the sector except for the National Phone and International Phone, this 2 consist of a small portion of the revenue @ ~8%, something to note but not big.
• Operation profit dropped mainly from the result of a decline in Airtel’s India earnings and charges from increased network investments and spectrum.
• 2018 total Div payout is ~81% (include all the special div). This is good for 2018 but no longer for future where by the Div payout will be fixed at 17.5ct for the next 2 FY. Resume the 60-75% Div payout only by FY21.
• Expect stable “single digit” profit for next 2 years before Singtel can see anything increase in the profit.

Recent share buyback (actually very tiny if compare to the overall all Cap size of SingTel.):

• May 17: SGD ~1 mil @ SGD3.42/3.43
• May28: SGD ~ 0.44mil @ SGD 3.34

Risk:

• Increase of compaction in Singapore telco market with new players coming in end of this year.
• India Telco join venture is facing hard fight with new competitor.
• Invrstment cost.

What Singtel is doing so far (According to the latest annual report):

• Singtel embarked on a company-wide digital transformation more than five years ago to rebuild our business around data and digital. As digital eroded industry barriers and disrupted old business models, going digital has meant developing strategies that go beyond the context of our telco industry. Instead, we have leveraged our telco assets and customer relationships to develop new businesses such as cyber security, digital marketing and smart city solutions. We have also begun building a digital ecosystem with our associates to aggregate millions of customers across the region. As digital
• Had revolutionized consumer behavior and company processes, we have also digitalised our core consumer and enterprise businesses.
• Our new growth initiatives have grown from strength to strength – our digital and ICT businesses now contribute nearly 25% of Group revenue.

The reason i buy in:

• Share price @ 52 weeks low (S$3.4 at that point of time)
• Good div pay out and stable track record
• Singapore blue chip
• Regional dai kor for Telco
• Sound solid management (based on the road map and transform seen on Singtel)

Any changes against my reason of purchase?

• Share price @ 52 weeks low -> No, now even lower... haha
• Good div pay out and stable track record -> announced fix DY for 17.5ct for next 2 FY and resume in FY21, still acceptable to me.
• Singapore blue chip -> No change
• Regional dai kor for Telco -> No change
• Sound solid management (based on the road map and transform seen on Singtel) -> No key person changes

Conclusion:

• Hold at this moment in view of Div payout in Aug.
• Expect small re-bounce after reason heavy sell.

- Temporary have no plan to top up, lets see the share price movement in this few days as well as after the Annual GM on 7/24.

Holding (11th June 2018) - *Throwback

Capital Distribution:

• 1% Cash
• 97% Share in SGX
• 42% in 1 high pay Reit (13.8% DPU)
• 55% in 2 different Companies
• Annual div payout based on current PF is ~6.2%.

 Since the first review on 15th May, i had made some changes to my portfolio, the main reason behind is to streamline my portfolio and focus on fewer counter that i'm confident with.

1. Asian Pay Tv:

 I had made a transaction to average down this reit at 0.46c, of cause, that is before it went down to ~0.41c and now come back at weaker momentum. My current avg price is at 0.54c with paper loss of ~19%. To be honest, the situation is ugly, i have to admit that, i'm only looking at the high DPU of this counter (~12.2% at my avg price), other than that, the situations of the company are not that attractive with the high gearing and challenging business environment. 2 key challenges for the company are: the popularity of internet Tv in the future over current cable Tv, and the tax rule changes at Taiwan (increase from 17% to 20% for related business), which had significantly impacted the profit of the company.

Well, the situation is still in mix, as the company have an advantage of 100% owning the hybrid fibre coaxial cable network in their franchise areas of Taiwan (Taoyuan, Hsinchu, Miaoli, TaiZhong), owning this facility have add advantage to the company in the sense of:

• Building the Fibre cable is a resilient business with high barriers of entry due to high network roll out requirements.
• Large customer base makes TBC attractive to local content providers; unique commercial arrangement with content providers.
• Long standing relationship with subscribers; deep understanding of Taiwanese viewers’preference.

 How i look at the situation is: although there will be a hard fight between internet Tv and cable Tv, the high quality internet will need to rely on the broadband, which is backed-up by the hybrid fibre coaxial cable network. So, with regards how bad the fight is, Asian Pay Tv should also get some return from their cable network. A good news is that the broadband business is the only business that seeing growth in the latest quarter, which at least re-leaf my short term worried on this counter.

2. Avi-tech.

 I disposed all my Avi with several reasons:

• Wth the same DPU at ~5%, Singtel seems to be having more advantage in terms of the share price and the business model.
• I entered Avi without much advantage of the share price, and the latest Quarter report shows decline in the profit, indicates by the weaker demand of electronic testing. So cutting out this counter at 9% loss and work it out as per the plan.

3. Singtel

 No doubt, Singtel share price declined after they announce the latest quarter report due to the profit are not meeting the market expectation. With the original plan to avrg down at 3.2-3.3 and cut loss at 3.0, i had top up some units at 3.29 (after seeing recovery from 3.24), unfortunately, the share price went back down again recently to 3.23. My average price is now at 3.4 (~5% paper loss), but i have no worried about this counter at all: a blue-chip with share price @ 52 wk low + 5% DPU + good management + Temasek holding... hahaha... This will be my long term game.

4. Hanwell

This is really a boring counter, but i had decided to top up more at 0.23c, it is at net net stock at this price. The company have 2 key businesses: A good growth sector from their paper packaging business, and a stable + solid business sector from their FMCG (rice, toufu, snack and bla bla bla....). There is a lot of potential for the share price, and relatively lower risk due to the good FA.
That is all for the changes in my portfolio, now i have a high DPU Reit (relatively high risk :(), a superb bluechip stock and a low risk net net stock, i'm very comfortable with the arrangement. I guess the missing type of counter in my portfolio will be a high growth mid cap stock. lets reserving bullet while continue searching for my last piece of puzzle!