FAJAR (7047) - Q4 2018 Quarter Report - Slam Slam Slam!

FAJAR (7047) released their Q4 result, quite disappointed with it, QoQ and YoY both drop >50%.

Looking into each segment, all are under perform compared to Q4 2017 except construction. FAJAR's revenue are mainly contributed by Construction, Timber and Property Development. however, the segment that contribute the most to it profit margin are Timber & Property Development, and both of this segments are bad. Even the revenue from the Construction sector has improved a lot, but the contribution to the profit margin is significantly lower compare to the 2 key main segments.

Prospect:The only positive point is the management kind of confident that Timber business is coming back, the rest seems like still expect to struggle for a while... what the f.. hahaha

Share price to day had slit ~11%. It had came to my cut loss point, If Monday have no sign of recovery, than i have to cut loss despite the bad performance and the uncertain future profit.

Never Buy Another Stock Again - David Gaffen

首先，我要说的是这一本书是我读得最辛苦的一本，翻译语法真是醉了，建议要的话可以直接读原版英文的。其次，它是很悲观的一本书，自少我读后有这样的感觉。

内容有几个重点值得深思：
- 把那么多资金投资在股市合理吗？还是这其实是你的贪婪与投机心态？
- 非买股票的话就不可以长抱。
- 随时准备把表现不佳的资产套现就算是再好的公司。
- 请考虑投资成本，它可能是最大的致命伤。
- 市场消息听听就好，历史上它的准确率非常低。
- 投资个股回酬率不比指数基金好，长期来说。
- 投资多样化的定义不在于标的多寡，而是各个投资项目的关联率。
- 建议的投资组合 - 股票：商品：bond：gov bond = 50:10:20:20.
- 投资组合再平衡在某个时间点上可以降低高风险投指标的资金曝光率。

算不错的一本书，除了翻译得一塌糊涂以外...

Hanwell - Aug'18

 

Hanwell announced their Q2'18 report on 10th Aug, below are some highlights captured from the report.

Consumer Business: +4.47% in 2Q18 (+4.22% 1H18) mainly due to higher distribution sales from Malaysia. Distribution in Singapore is actually lower compare to last Q due to close down of the retail shops (how come i not aware this??), actually not much info about Singapore retail market. Growth in Malaysia market is kind of good new, however, there is a risk of RM running weak, so lets see the performance for the next report. Comment on overall consumer business was highlighted as below: Price hike of rice is beginning to stabilize especially from Thailand and Vietnam. Forward purchase planning in this segment will be essential to sustain current gross profits till end of the year. Price hike for both pulp and recycled paper for the paper products has stabilized. However, margins in this sector are under pressure due to retail price increase lagging behind raw materials cost increase. So the blame goes to price of raw material.

Packaging Business: +30.5% in 2Q18 (+24.6% 1H18) nothing special as the growth are expected to be coming from China operation. looks good but need to note of some key point mentioned by Alan:

1. Singapore’s operating environment is expected to remain challenging for the Packaging business segment with the increase of raw material costs in anticipation of unfavourable exchange fluctuation of SGD against USD and the volatility of raw material prices.
2. For China's operations of the Packaging business segment, the escalation of trade tension between US and China will impact its export. This will further aggravate the over-capacity of corrugator packaging industry and lead to more intense competition of the industry.
3. Also in China, the stringent pollution control regulations of China government
4. The potential of unfavourable exchange fluctuation of RMB against USD will result in increase in raw materials costs.

Notwithstanding this segment will continue to execute its strategy to improve operational efficiencies and further reduce costs diligently. The Packaging business segment is expected to commence the operation of its new production line of Nantong Tat Seng in the fourth quarter of 2018.

While for the financial statement, below are some highlights for me to take as notes:

• Property, plant and equipment written off was not there last year
• Inventory is higher, the explanation is last year inventory low due to peak season in Dec'17 - Wah! like that also can!
• Net cash generated from operating activities is actually lower in 2018 ya!

As summary, Hanwell still running fine with some white spot here and there. The share price never move a lot after this report, so definitely this is an boring counter, also there is where to find a net - net stock. The purpose of investing in Hanwell is to have capital growth, and that should come from the share price movement, so far i still haven't see any solid movement despite they reported kind of "good" result in 2Q. Despite the RM would likely continue to go weaker based on current trend and a lot of uncertainty of the trade war between China and US, overall Hawell still have his business under good control. I will keep Hanwell for awhile until end of the year,

Beating the Street - Peter Lynch.John Rothschild

此书我是当小说来看的，因为有差不多一半的章文是Lynch的基金经理历程，想了解华尔街金牌鸡精经理，这本是不错的。至于学习方面，Lynch特别着重分享他对借贷股，消费股及景气循环股的分析重点，其实对我这小虾来说是蛮受益的，如果我看上此类股票的话。
有几点需要注意的是，Lynch特别擅长分析个别板块的趋势及大行情，所以他的股票组合是很大的，就算晚期他不再是基金经理时所定时分享的美股每年也有大概20支，所以除了学习他的板块分析，你还要有自己一套筛选个股的方法（同一个板块他会同时拥有几只股，对于小资金的我可不能那么分散）。

另外一点是由于Lynch是搞基金的，所以他的上市公司CEO人脉是特广，书里说了他每周都会和很多不同的CEO吃饭，单看他所可以接触到的第一手消息就不是我们普通人可以做到的。而且上市公司也要基金帮忙买入，消息可靠性是蛮高的。
只要看官们读后理性分析内容，把自己和Lynch的地位区别出来，再消化本书内容，实属获益匪浅。

后话：STI 高位慢调整，组合没有需要变动的，暂时不会加仓手上任何股（纸面亏损近7%，Apptv除外），接下来会分析新加坡reit,然后存钱等美美的价位再建仓。

Weekly Review - 0812

The main activity for this week is to dispo my Asian Pay Tv. It is sad but is a must do with the reason that i shared in my previous post. After i dispo the Asian Pay Tv, i quickly SWAP to some other stock. Fajar and Malton are the 2 stocks that quickly take up my capital from the disposition of Asian Pay Tv. Why Fajar and Malton? first of all, this 2 counters were mentioned in the "Rainmakers", well, thanks to the page and i stretch a bit to check out the feasibility to invest in this 2 counters. Together, i put in a fundamental comparison with Ekovest, Destini and WCT as well. Again, the goal is to look for Malaysia MID CAP developers who have good fundamental, good earning capability and reasonable dividend pay out.

Above data captured from 7th Aug (all except Ekovest) to 13 Aug (Ekovest) through investing.com. can see that Fajar and Malton are the top 2. Based on market CAP, WCT is not really the same batch with the rest and i put it in just as a refferance since it is one of my closely monitored counter.

Fajar have a mix business with additional income from Timber, so to be honest, by putting Fajar in the list to compare is really not an apple 2 apple comparison but rather orange and Mandarin orange comparison. As for Malton, it comes with the honer from Pavilion and some good project on hand is definitely some positive point for it. another key reason for selecting this 2 is, they both have the top 2 highest dividend payout based on current price. In view of their trend, both had kind of recover from bottom with >10% recovery liao, enter at this point will be more comfortable for me since the trend shows recovery and not batting on the re bounce.

Fajar

 

 Malton

For the strategy, the capital from Asia Pay Tv will be divided into 2 and invested in Fajar and Malton @ the price of RM 0.495 and RM 0.655 respectively. Any cut loss? based on the trend and EMA, Fajar should cut at 0.485 while Malton should cut at 0.61, anyway, I'm not so certain about the cut loss price at this moment since the Fundamental for this 2 counters are reasonable to hold for mid to long term with current enter price. Both counter will have their quarter result published in Aug'18, so lets see how it goes.

 

Below is my updated portfolio:

 

Key Notes:

1. Swap from Asia Pay Tv to Fajar and Malton, loss of ~26$ from Asian Pay Tv :(
2. Singtel reported their latest Quarter result on 8th Aug with drop in revenue, share price impacted immediately since 10th Aug.
3. Hanwell reported their latest Quarter result on 13th Aug, which is higher than Q2'17, today is the first day the share price reflected the good news. 

 

 

The TOP 10 Distinctions Between Millionaires and The Middle Class. Keith Cameron Smith

顾名思义，本书着重于讲解有钱人于普通人的十种习惯差异：

1. 衡量财富的时间轴，有钱人在乎一年可赚多少；薪水族计较一个月领多少薪水
2. 有钱人谈观念；薪水族聊是非
3. 有钱人乐于改变；薪水族抗拒改变，这里讲的是持续性的
4. 有钱人乐于冒险及精算得失；薪水族害怕离开舒适圈
5. 有钱人不断学习；薪水族在毕业后就不愿学习。我认为这里的learning指的是所有事情，而不是单一的专业领域
6. 有钱人掌握时机赚钱，薪水族希望安稳领月薪
7. 有钱人做钱的主人，乐于分享不计较；薪水族为钱工作，分毫计算怕吃亏
8. 有钱人慷慨不亲力亲为，拥有消极收入；薪水族吝啬靠自己，着重于积极收入
9. 有钱人专注于全部财产的增加；薪水族只关心工资涨幅有多少
10. 有钱人习惯往好方向思考，进入好循环；薪水族经常朝坏方面抱怨，陷入恶循环

这本书讲的都是概念，并不是每个人都能吸收。习惯10，9和2对我来说算是相对比较新的看法，其他的大致上对比市面上的理财书籍没太大惊喜。

A Review on Asian Pay Television Trust

APPTV just announced their latest quarter report, such a disapointed result. Infact, it is not totally unexpected, this is what capture from the latest Q-report end 30 Jun 2018:

In constant Taiwan dollars (“NT$”), revenue down 4.1% for the quarter and 4.9% for the half-year as foreign exchange contributed 2.5% negative variance for the quarter and 1.8% for the half-year

• Basic Cable TV: Down 4.6% for the quarter and 5.6% for the half-year in constant NT$ terms mainly due to lower subscription revenue, driven by marginally lower number of subscribers and ARPU compared to the pcp, and lower revenue generated from channel leasing partially offset by higher airtime advertising sales.
• Premium Digital Cable TV: Down 10.4% for the quarter and 9.2% for the half-year in constant NT$ terms. Generated predominantly from TBC’s average Premium digital cable TV RGUs each contributing an ARPU of NT$133 per month during the quarter for Premium digital cable TV packages, bundled DVR or DVR-only services.
• Broadband: Up marginally for the quarter and remained broadly unchanged for the half-year in constant NT$ terms. Generated predominantly from TBC’s average Broadband RGUs each contributing an ARPU of NT$439 per month during the quarter for high-speed Broadband services.

Total operating expenses: Lower operating expenses, mainly due to lower broadcast and production costs, staff costs and other operating expenses.

Below table tell a better story:

In short, the game still on with increase RGUs in Premium digital cable TV but hidden rock shows ARPU for both of the so call potential savior for APTV is not making and real income (claim to be due to spending for promotions and discounted bundled packages that were offered to generate new RGUs and to retain existing RGUs.

A sad part from the report is below highlighted statment were spotted in the Outlook statement:

==> To support some of the above-mentioned initiatives, the Board of directors is of the view that the distribution per unit in 2019 is likely to be lowered.

My intepretations:
1. The situation is bad, management have no confident to recover the weak performance.
2. DPU lower always not a good thing for me.

A side thought: Do youconfident that APTv can recover the situations by cutting the DPU and with above plan? It all went back to the business that APTv is doing. With that says, i had decided to cut loss at this point, sold off all i have @ 0.40 and take the loss of ~26%. A simple reason, APTv have no longer meet my needs as the future DPU is not secure, so just cut and move on.

I had swap to some Malaysia construction counter. update in next blogging. 

Warren Buffett's Ground Rules: Words of Wisdom from the Partnership Letters of the World's Greatest Investor -- by Jeremy Miller

书名有够长的咯。个人觉得这是一本很不错的书，无可否任，巴非特的热门书籍一大堆，著名的有 “巴非特致股东们的信”，“滚雪球”等等，而这本对我来说就好比巴非特投资前传，来看看里面写什么。

此书分为三部；基本概念，投资策略，及心里偏误。作者基本上是把早期巴非特出道时写给“合伙人”的信重新整理了一遍再把大纲分成以上三部来解读。其实，个人觉得比较relevent 的就是基本概念和投资策略。

在基本概念这一章里，不用多说，巴非特的基本投资概念大家都略知一二，本章比较有趣的是巴非特的绩效衡量，他唯一想打败的是DOW，而我一直都在看个人回筹率而已，当然，要效仿他的话，你的投资肯定要是长线的，min 3 years.....

再来是投资策略，原来以前巴哥也是炒股起家的，此章解说了有名的cigar butt investing，既是net-net stock。说到net net stock，巴哥以前只考虑net net performance，而大家所了解的价值投资，就是以合理价买入优秀的公司，其实是巴非特后期的投资策略，本章也解释巴非特为何改变策略。除了低估型投资，也看到一些巴非特以前的投资策略，比如套利型投资，控制型投资，及后期的控股型投资。

其他有趣的info比如如何计算公司价值，及对长线的看法等等都是有比较独特的见解。看了之后，我不敢肯定你的投资会从此无往不利，但是你肯定会对你所了解的巴非特有不同的见解。