RCECAP announced the 1st Q results on last Friday lol..... As expected, The Q result is good, with the increase of the revenue as well as the EPS of 2.61 for the 1st Q. even with the same EPS for the up coming 3 Q, the PE for it still stay at ~6.2 with annum EPS of ~0.10. haha.. not bad not bad.
But on the other hand, i found this in one of the forum:
>>>>
RCECAP 的生意真得能做嗎？
RCECAP的主要業務，有點近似銀行，或貸款公司，因為它沒執照像銀行般吸取公眾的存款，所以資金來源是通過發行債券、票據，甚至發行新股。RCECAP的管理開支：
2006=3千
5百萬
2007=4千
5百萬
2008= 5千
1百萬
(估計
)日益增加的管理開支，佔融資總額約11%；主要資金來源自融資：2億
4千萬
(利息開支
6.25%-9.00%)1億
2千萬
(利息開支
6.25%-9.00%)6千萬
(利息開支
15.0%)平均融資利息約８.65％；也就是說，
RCECAP需要計算約超過
２０％的利息予借貸人，才能有盈利；
２０％的利息，遠遠高過其它金融公司約１０％的個人貸款利息。
這生意真能做下去嗎？依據
2006-2007年報披露的借貸收入，佔總貸款約
9.7％和
17.8％，這個數目有２個關鍵：
1.兩者的收入不足以償還
RCECAP的貸款利息和管理開支。
2.兩者數字１年內變化太大，可能蘊藏問題。
股票分析師認為
RCECAP主要貸款給公務員，其滲透率低，市場開發大，且欠款自動從公務員薪水中扣除，可防止呆帳的情況發生。
但我卻看到呆帳預備金高達１０餘％！遠遠高於銀行呆帳平均３倍以上。
By Chookf_Cari
<<<<<
This come from one of the member in the forum and posted on Apr 2008. I try to check on the latest Annual Report, it seem like the situation is geting worst. Hmm..
Another 1:
>>>>
说说RCE的风险。
1. RCE借出个人贷款和分期付款，收很高的利息。这些贷款是没有生产性的，而且客户的理财能力显然有问题，所以才会借钱，最后会不会还钱有疑问。而且，RCE的利息比市场高很多，是哪些人不去借比较底利息的贷款，却向RCE借高利息的贷款？
2. RCE基本是在做银行的生意，却没有deposit来作为资本来源，只好靠股东基金，和借贷来筹资。RCE已经借了大笔钱了，之前想发出ABS来筹资，可 是现在ABS已经没什么市场，所以才又出private placement来筹资。RCE钱紧的很，根本不会发高股息。
3. 研究员都说公务员的拖欠率很低，可是RCE的receivable和股东资金相比起来太大了，只要拖欠率提高一点，RCE的股东资金就可能亏完，进PN17。
4. RCE靠与几个koperasi合作来得到客户，这种合作关系稳固吗？我有怀疑。
5. RCE还有政策上的风险。前不久看到新闻说Angkasawan要求检讨让financial institute直接扣薪的制度。
6. RCE和大股东的关系很复杂，related party transaction很多。
By Mr. Business_Cari
<<<<<
RCECAP for me is a 成长股, average RoE is 32 in 5 years time and non of the year is having the RoE lower then 20, further more, there are no other competitor in the same field as RCECAP. But after i read some point from others as shows on above, the nature of the business for RCECAP makes me worried. Haha...
BUT!!!
If we look from the other side, Market always right!! no metter blue chip or 2nd line stock, they also can make money if we know what we are doing! So, my new plan on RCECAP is i have no plan to keep for long, currently the financial ratio (especially debt vs cap) still accectable, so no plan to sell out now unless it goes >0.70.. 10-20% return from this stock should be good enough for me, and also i confident on SAM's call. RCE should not die that easy, just it will keep me worried time to time nia.. haha.
