My next target IJM-WC

IJM-WC is out yesterday, Open price around RM1.2+ oh (if i not mistaken)!! haha.. Today coming down a bit to 1.16. lets look at it, without the complexity of WR, WC is easier to calculate lol.. hehe

1) in / out money

Warrant price = 1.16
Conversion price = 4.00
Mother price = 4.78
Conversion ratio = 1:1

premium / discount ?
1.16 + 4.00 - 4.78 = 0.38
0.38 / 4.78 * 100 = 7.95%

Current price still in money (< 30%) but is 8%.. put a remark here!!

2) Expired date is 24/10/2014 , 5 yrs from now, in 5 yrs do u think IJM can fly?!! haha.. who knows?

3) Mothers future earning. For this 1 no need to say much lol...Blue chip already cukup makan. Just my concern will be the PE. it PE is now at 21+. consider bit high for blue chip d (or nutral??). And from the tracking, IJM has fully recovered from the down turn and up to the same level around April 08 which is before down turn.

Generally IJM It is aligned to the over all construction market where it almost fully recover from the down turn. If for seen market will be further stable and keep on climbing up, then there are still some margin for IJM. Any how, if look at pass 5 year market beheaviour, the down turn in end of 2008 actually is quite short! and its only take around half year time to stay at the bottom then start moving up again until now where it is almost back to the baseline.

If you look at current index, it is at the level right before the bull in 2007 (or the half way of the bull). I would not say bull is comming because the time for the market to stay at bottom is too low for a big bull to come after it. Btw, IJM is most of the time quite follow the KLCI's step, i not really sure the PE for IJM during April of 2008, any how, i will find it out later. haha.. But IJM's earning is more secure compare to others construction counter, don't u think so?

I think most of the ppl in the market know that warrant of IJM is always 小刀锯大树. For IJM-WC's brother (IJM-WB), the highest it can go is around RM3.++ during bull time. haha, don't ever think of that, if i buy in WC now and can get >30% i will cabut d. 30% for current price is only RM1.60 and at that price, WC still in money (i use mother price as per today).

Let say market went bad and IJM drop, as well as i buy WC at current price (1.16), it will be out money when IJM hit RM4.16. It is quite possible if the "bad news" still keep on coming from our lovely gov.

So this is my plan! (if i able to make it):

1) IJM earning confirm no problem for me, my concern is the influence of the market.

2) I will start collect WC at any price under RM1. At this price, only if IJM drop until RM3, which PE ~14, then will only my buying will be considered out money. For me this is quite secure.. haha.

Of cause, i will buy in step by step and see the situation. Long term i believe it should gain me a lot.

So will IJM-WC able to go down to RM1? For me it is hard to say. BUT! based on WC performance in this 2 days and lately the weak market, i still believe that it can hit below RM1, will see how after T+3 and 4 which is next week.Monday or Tuesday. Let see la..

Come!! Comment Comment!!!

Gatal gatal nak beli!

Thinking to buy TGOFF-WA, current price 0.80.. quite cheap, let do some home work later.. now day damn busy... worried for run chicken pula like IJM-WR haha. Btw, y IJM-WC still not yet listed??

Short review on my dear SEALINK

Yesterday my bro ask me, "Sealink how?? u got average down bo?" haha, then i just realize tht i didn't put eyes on this baby long time d, now it is 0.72, lower then my entering price. Ok, lets do some home work now.

Sealink listed in the main board around July-Aug last year 2008. I a very new junior in main board. Any how i listed the Q report that i found from Bursa, i only write down those that i interested la..

Remember tht i buy Sealink (or follow Sifu buy Sealink) is because the low PE. At that time, (some where in July 09, i think), not much ONG stock that PE <10 and Sealink is one of the low PE counter. Another consideration is the limitation of my capital, others ONG is prising at RM1, bit high for me lol, so i'm not going to compare Sealink with others ONG stock now because no point to do that, Sealink also very new in the board, sure cannot 1 to 1 compare with others taiko. And now i'm holding it, then look at her performance only.

Revenue hit bottom on DEC 08, as well as share price, tht time oil price oso deep shit, then recover a bit and jump up to 53M on Mar 09 as well as June 09. I have no doubt with the revenue.

For her Profit after tax, its quite parallel with revenue performance. If compare latest profit to mar 09, revenue almost same but profit drop, this is because the selling for vessels in Mar 09 tht bring up the profit for that quarter, the performance would be the same if without the 1 shot cash in, revenue slide increased to 53M. EPS is also affected by this, so no doubt that the paper performance is not so nice for latest Q report, haha.

In terms of how the company operate in business, i rate it fare la, coz it still new and need some time to make clear the management direction. 1 point is the ROE is quite good, only the fluctuation of it is also quite high, mark for monitor!

Lets look at the simple balance sheet figure. For all quarters, current liabilities is all the time quite high, and the cash is always not enough to cover it. for a new listed company and "assume" it is growing, this is normal situation (pls correct me if i'm wrong). Well, from the current ratio, it seems to be improving but very very slow, staying at 0.6+ something now. For this section, need to monitor the up coming Q report whether the management is working on it or not. Any how, the cash on hand is improving but also quite slow. for a short sum, if the current ratio is still below 0.7, i can accept, haha

New listed company always hard to see the trend or company behavior, so since already on board and with the reasonable PE, lets give Sealink a chance, next Q maybe better and will turn out to be black horse!!.. haha

Why i doing this small data collection on Sealink now is because I'm thinking whether to average down Sealink at current price or keep the bullet for the XXXXX which is mention by SAM. This XXXXX for me is a sure win counter! I have no doubt on it. Haha, seems like i already decided.. Any how, a simple drawing on Sealink also good for me because i have not done this for it yet even i had brought it for few months d.. haha