IJM-WC is out yesterday, Open price around RM1.2+ oh (if i not mistaken)!! haha.. Today coming down a bit to 1.16. lets look at it, without the complexity of WR, WC is easier to calculate lol.. hehe
1) in / out money
Warrant price = 1.16
Conversion price = 4.00
Mother price = 4.78
Conversion ratio = 1:1
premium / discount ?
1.16 + 4.00 - 4.78 = 0.38
0.38 / 4.78 * 100 = 7.95%
Current price still in money (< 30%) but is 8%.. put a remark here!!
2) Expired date is 24/10/2014 , 5 yrs from now, in 5 yrs do u think IJM can fly?!! haha.. who knows?
3) Mothers future earning. For this 1 no need to say much lol...Blue chip already cukup makan. Just my concern will be the PE. it PE is now at 21+. consider bit high for blue chip d (or nutral??). And from the tracking, IJM has fully recovered from the down turn and up to the same level around April 08 which is before down turn.
Generally IJM It is aligned to the over all construction market where it almost fully recover from the down turn. If for seen market will be further stable and keep on climbing up, then there are still some margin for IJM. Any how, if look at pass 5 year market beheaviour, the down turn in end of 2008 actually is quite short! and its only take around half year time to stay at the bottom then start moving up again until now where it is almost back to the baseline.
If you look at current index, it is at the level right before the bull in 2007 (or the half way of the bull). I would not say bull is comming because the time for the market to stay at bottom is too low for a big bull to come after it. Btw, IJM is most of the time quite follow the KLCI's step, i not really sure the PE for IJM during April of 2008, any how, i will find it out later. haha.. But IJM's earning is more secure compare to others construction counter, don't u think so?
I think most of the ppl in the market know that warrant of IJM is always 小刀锯大树. For IJM-WC's brother (IJM-WB), the highest it can go is around RM3.++ during bull time. haha, don't ever think of that, if i buy in WC now and can get >30% i will cabut d. 30% for current price is only RM1.60 and at that price, WC still in money (i use mother price as per today).
Let say market went bad and IJM drop, as well as i buy WC at current price (1.16), it will be out money when IJM hit RM4.16. It is quite possible if the "bad news" still keep on coming from our lovely gov.
So this is my plan! (if i able to make it):
1) IJM earning confirm no problem for me, my concern is the influence of the market.
2) I will start collect WC at any price under RM1. At this price, only if IJM drop until RM3, which PE ~14, then will only my buying will be considered out money. For me this is quite secure.. haha.
Of cause, i will buy in step by step and see the situation. Long term i believe it should gain me a lot.
So will IJM-WC able to go down to RM1? For me it is hard to say. BUT! based on WC performance in this 2 days and lately the weak market, i still believe that it can hit below RM1, will see how after T+3 and 4 which is next week.Monday or Tuesday. Let see la..
Come!! Comment Comment!!!
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