Is SUPERMAX a case of 狼来了？？

Last Friday, i decided to clear all my SUPERMAX @ 2.2+. walau! so fast scare liao!! hahaha. few reason make me take this move, however, my move is not because of panic market, it is because of signal that i learn from Mr Hu, and i try to apply it, since i still have some pocket money from it. This are the reasons why i buy SUPERMAX before hand:

1. SUPERMAX is having the lowest PE at this moment with about 11, TG is running around 15 and KOSSAN is 18.

2. TG and KOSSAN start to move a bit already and left only SUPERMAX. Yesterday it closes at flat but there is a spike up to 2.2+ during lunch time.

3. Weekly volume starts to pick up in pass 3 weeks, 10 days average price start to trend up.

and my original TP for SUPERMAX is RM2.56.



I decided to clear it one shot on Friday due to:

1. Continuously 4 days OHCL (Open High Close Low).
2. Volume Shrinked significantly.
3. Politic standpoint of SUPERMAX.
4. Global Event which is getting worst off.

From the trend point of view, i buy in with volume pick up, and i have to sell it when volume shrink together with share price trended down continuously with 10 days average line also start to flip down on Friday. I would beleive the continuous red for SUPERMAX is due to over brought in the solid green bar on Monday, however, even for the gunner and 投机客，they also need to wait for T3 to force sell, so when i see the 1st red after the green couple with long upper needle line and high volume, i pretty much confirm that the big fish is disposing SUPERMX hardly, not difficult to know that one of the giant fish is the EPF, this will link to point number 3 later. The volume and share price movement for subsequent three days further makes me almost 100% sure that the up trend for SUPERMX had been interrupted.

From point number 3, after i entered SUPERMAX, i did read quite a numbers of journal regarding glove industry and SUPERMAX, and one of the point i pick up is the SUPERMAX is anti government, hahahaha. Although i haven't see any latest new on how the management team of SUPERMAX criticize the gov, the latest article that SUPERMAX complaining the government are as below, and from what EPF had been doing all the while (Keep dispose and dispose), it is really a company that hard to get the support from GOV, at least this is what i feel.

http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/91328?tid=6
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速柏瑪執行主席兼董事經理鄭金森
政策須利永續成長

速柏瑪（SUPERMX,7106,主板工業產品組）執行主席兼董事經理拿督斯里鄭金森表示，政府上調電費16%，全部人都受到影響，政府准許一家賺錢企業上調電費，實是令人覺得這可是件瘋狂的事！

同樣的，若是膠手套業者在沒有合理原因上調產品價格，他們的客戶也一樣質疑他們是否瘋了。

國家能源是家賺錢企業，政府還要上調電費及增加大家的成本。希望政府收到的額外收入善加利用。同時，讓更多業者參與再生能源領域，擁有平等的參與，以應對電費起價。

除了電力能源外，膠手套業者的其他經營風險，包括外匯波動及原料成本走高等。若要膠手套業持續成長，政府的政策可說是扮演舉足輕重的角色。
政府進行減赤行動實是無可厚非，惟不應該將減赤優先事項放在削減津貼方面。

電費漲打擊競爭力

鄭金森指出，上調電費，這不應該是政府首要考量，反而應該積極減低不必要的開銷。政府應該抑制不必要的開銷及弊端。

鄭金森指出，政府反而是先行處理政府出現的任何批漏與弱點、減少貪污、改善政府效率等領域，而不是一味加重各行業成本負擔而打擊競爭力。

公用事業甚至獨立發電廠業者取得數10億令吉盈利，但還是需要調漲電費？不僅企業，中低收入群也將面對電費上調衝擊。

本地膠手套行業不時針對市場變化而做出改變，不過，他認為政府也一樣需要做出改變，防止政府的錯誤，包括國家能源必須提昇它的效率，因為其他國家膠手套業者的能源成本，比大馬便宜及更具競爭力，特別是國家能源是壟斷領域。

目前本地膠手套行業每年的營業額達到約300億令吉，佔據全球膠手套市場逾60%，目前最重要的問題，是本地膠手套行業將從目前情況下走向何方？
他認為，膠手套業者知道如何經營它們本身的業務，不過，若是缺乏一個有利製造業者的經營環境，業者是很難繼續擁有永續的成長。

他指出，政府實施的政策非常重要，包括吸引人才回歸措施。特別是目前的價格都在揚升，政府有必要提供獎掖，包括新興行業地位及在油氣領域的優惠等。

本地膠手套行業每年為國家帶來逾100億令吉淨收入，有鋻於此，政府的政策有必要有利經營環境，以便吸引業者繼續投資甚至再投資。政府有必要有長期計劃，以助業者與其他國家競爭。
Lastly, with the recent dip on share market (for it, it is more like an over react on the market due to the fire call on Iraq from Obama). with the unstable global situation, i think it is hard to gain the confident of the investor to put their money in the share market at least for a short while, even I'm the investor that obey the Mr Market, i will also keep my money in other counter for now at least.

The quarter report for SUPERMAX will be out this month, and i quite confident that it will be a good one. However, i do believe that the share price on last Monday had reacted to the good result + the Ebola effect.

With the cash on hand, i will swap it to another counter either WEIDA or MARCO on Monday depends on the situation.