| Written by Gan Yen Kuan |
| As excess supply exists while inventory levels remain high, an output cut by Opec could provide some ceiling and potential downward pressure to the recent rise in oil prices, she said. However, as exploration activities were expected to resume towards the end of the year due to current oil price levels, she said O&G counters could later benefit from potential awards of contracts. “That [oil prices staying at US$70 (RM247) to US$75 per barrel] means oil companies don’t have that much pressure to cut their exploration budget. Obviously we have seen some delays in contract awards but I think those would hopefully resume towards the end of the year with prices at this level. “We will first see some consolidation and profit-taking in this sector, before it moves up,” she said at a media briefing last Friday. The anticipated correction was also partly due to the fact that the energy sector had significantly outperformed the broader market in the first half (1H) of the year, with median performance up 106.9%, more than four times the market gain in 1H. S&P Equity Research expects WTI crude oil prices to average US$56 per barrel this year and US$63 per barrel next year. Its top picks in the sector are SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd due to its “unique asset positioning and strong earnings growth”, and Alam Maritim Resources Bhd for its track record in earnings delivery. Meanwhile, RHB Research head of research Lim Chee Sing said while there were speculative elements in the rise of oil prices recently, the rise also reflected improving confidence among investors. “The global economy has passed its worst. Although there are contractions, they are at a smaller magnitude. We are in a healing process and future prospects improve. Investors begin to take position in commodity futures,” he told The Edge Financial Daily via telephone. He noted that high-cost O&G projects that were delayed could be reviewed as they “became viable again” at current oil price levels. “The improving prospects will propel the O&G sector,” he said. RHB Research expects oil prices to trade in the range of US$60 to US$70 per barrel for the rest of the year. This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, June 29, 2009. >>>>> |
Monday, June 29, 2009
O&G counters may correct before rising again
Buy KFIMA at 0.63
Yoyo!! today bot another 60 lots of KFIMA at 0.63!! this few days the volume is damn thin ler.. how ar?? Hold hold hold and wait wait wait lo.. cash v share is now at 24 v 76 d!!
i plan to sell AXIATA since last week until now, and the share still with me!! damn!! this is because greedy lol... keep on waiting for higher price!! shit, tomolo sure have to dispose!! sure!!
Today get call from OSK says that my account transfer already completed but the online OSK188 still cannot use, looks like i have to phone call buying d for Genting SP. Let see how..
This week looks like don't have any catalyst on KLCI.. sian lol...
Sunday, June 28, 2009
GENTING SINGAPORE PLC
Do some info finding on Genting Singpore PLC, found out some point that make me have to reconsider to buy in.. hahaha..
I think no need to talk about the history of this company la, the main project now for her is the IR (Integrated Resort) in Singapore Sentosa lol. On top of this, GS also involve in the Casino business in UK (currently she is the largest investor in UK for casino gaming business) and this is the only business that she is operating now (correct me if I'm wrong). Any how, the business is in loss due to decrease of the customer and the changes in the tax system done by UK gov. In April, UK gov has revised and increase the tax for the casino machine and this was expected to bring the losses of 268M SGD for GS (for coming few FY).
In terms of the company current status hor, of cause la operating in losses as the main income from UK casino business is losing profit. And for the IR project, the debt is extremely high now, GS has become the company that having the highest debt in hand among all the listed company in SGX. The total debt for GS as of 1st Q'09 is at 2498M! Long term debt is 2183M and short term debt is 314.74M. EPS surely is negative d (-0.33 SGD), NTA stay at 0.29 SGD.
The high debt in GS are mainly used for the investment in IR project, total investment for IR had reached 65.9B. To prepare this kind of huge money for the IR project, GS has announced 2 times of right issues (2005 and 2007) and the rest is from the bond by total of 6 banks. Mr. Lim has done an estimation 2 years back where the GS is only able to make profit after 7 years of IR operation. this statement was made on 2007/08 and during that time the debt is far away less then today, so how long it needs to recover all the debt accumulated until today? Any how, we know that the losses surely will be covered after IR start to operate early next year.
In terms of the casino business in S'pore, the country had made their own law for this which is the Singaporean or PR have to pay $100 per entry per day into the casino, the ppl that allow to enter the casino also must fulfil a few of criteria that set by the S'pore gov where ppl who are bankrupt and still rely on gov. support for their daily life are not allowed to enter the casino. So after the gov. filter here and filter there, i think the main customer for IR will be the foreigner. As seen in some research, the main profit contributor for Genting Malaysia and Macau casino are those local guys and not those visitor or foreigner from others country (~70% are from local). I think in the 1st few years after the GS start to operate the main income should be coming from the theme park rather then the casino, we will verify this from their quarter or annual report soon *V*!
How bout that license for the casino in S'pore? Generally, GS already get it from the gov. but in my point of view, before the casino start to operate, there will still some hidden chance for changes, why?? As we all know, Mr. Lim had disposed 9% of his holding in GS lately, as also known by all of us, he plan to enter the MGM and further his step to move into Macau casino business. Who is the Dai Ko in Macau?? Mr. Ho lol, and we all know that S'pore gov. really "bo su ka" this Mr. Ho, this we can see from the S'pore casino license tender during 2006/2007 where GS plan to work with Mr. Ho for Macau casino business and she almost loss in the license tender because the S'pore gov disagree with GS to work out with Mr. Ho. This time, Mr. Lim sold his GS share and invest in Macau, surely the S'pore gov. will have some action on this (i expect la), i would put in some risk there for GS due to Mr Lim's action.
Talk about the management, I really don't like the style of Mr Lim la, before this, he had soled 2 US online casino company which is under his name to Resort World, this 2 companies are actually operating under losses and yet he still buy it with Resort from him self. And for the latest 9% share disposition in GS because he want to enter MGM, i not really agree on this. Y? because the bond issued by MGM with the DY of ~10% is to cover the high debt of MGM, MGM is running losses and Mr. Lim still buy in his bond, i really don understand la... haha, Luckily he buy in MGM with his own money, if he use GS to buy like what he did on Resort, for sure the company no future d.. haha.
Any how, IR will start her soft launch in early 2010, let us see what will be at that time. Will GS become the next legend like Genting?? i think the chance is low because Mr Lim not same like his father. I really doubt on his capability (looking at his annual salary korek from Genting share holder already sian... haha) maybe i'm worng oso, haha. But for the IR investment in Singapore, it really can make money if the chairman is old unker Lim.
So how now? buy or not buy? I'm not a market analyser nor a business man, i cannot seen the future for a business and i have less experience. I can say that GS is in high debt because they not yet start operate the IR, things will get better once the IR start to operate. For GS, the UK business for me is dead, the only chances for GS to make money is the IR. For IR project, the resort and theme park sure will bring profit for GS, for casino business ler, if everything remain unchanged, it should be positive but if S'pore gov shows his mood, than will be another story.
For GS at this time, I prefer trade as a treader rather then an investor, if you look at the debt and -EPS, its already not in good situation (high risk), BUT!! I oso worried that will run chicken if all the things are heading positive. Btw, nothing you can get from the FA analysis now because GS is not doing any business now (the one and the only is in loss now *V*!) . Early next year, GS share price surely will up another round with the soft launching of IR, but don miss understand that the situation is getting better, this huge among of debt will need some year to be recovered.
The actual performance of GS only can be know after the IR start to operate. I will prepared to buy in some at anything below 0.68, hold until the 1st and 2nd Q after IR start to operate, then will decide what to do for the next step. I believe GS's share price will not come down to < 1 after IR start to operate.
Btw, i didn't buy in anything yet when she is below 0.65 last week because i not yet summarize all the info i have, now i think I'm ready to do that already. This GS is not same like AIG or Citi where US gov will not let them die, it have only the strong mother which is Genting Bhd, and Genting Bhd is control by our dear Mr. Lim now, you have to understand how Mr. Lim run his business, remember, not his father now. Wish me good luck *V*!!
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Week of Market Correction - Ronan kena trap *V*
Finally, Market correction lai liao!! i have half half for share and cash, how ar?? high risk bo??
On hand have KFIMA and RCECAP, both is in paper loss >10% now. so want to cut loss?? Hmm... i will hold and wait la, since i bot this 2 at PE <5, still consider reasonable value. once market stable they should able to recover, btw how bout those high PE stock, they should be kena more serious *V*!
Remember my AXIATA with PE >20?? today i will sold out all anything ~2.20, take profit 1st.
Summarize for the case i kena this trap:
I sold almost 85% of my share early last week because i worried the correction but then hor, i buy in again at the end of last week, even i know the market correction is around the corner but i'm still bot in, haha... i buy is because my tangan gatal la, worried that will run chicken if the correction not coming.
So infuture if this situation happen again, i will monitor more tight on my cash v share ratio, in a non conformal situation, try to make the C vs S ratio <30%, one hand i can fufill my greedy on the other hand can stand at the save place when the market correction come.. haha
My current cash v share ratio is 43:57 quite high d. i admit that i had been trap in this correction *V*!! hahahaha
On hand have KFIMA and RCECAP, both is in paper loss >10% now. so want to cut loss?? Hmm... i will hold and wait la, since i bot this 2 at PE <5, still consider reasonable value. once market stable they should able to recover, btw how bout those high PE stock, they should be kena more serious *V*!
Remember my AXIATA with PE >20?? today i will sold out all anything ~2.20, take profit 1st.
Summarize for the case i kena this trap:
I sold almost 85% of my share early last week because i worried the correction but then hor, i buy in again at the end of last week, even i know the market correction is around the corner but i'm still bot in, haha... i buy is because my tangan gatal la, worried that will run chicken if the correction not coming.
So infuture if this situation happen again, i will monitor more tight on my cash v share ratio, in a non conformal situation, try to make the C vs S ratio <30%, one hand i can fufill my greedy on the other hand can stand at the save place when the market correction come.. haha
My current cash v share ratio is 43:57 quite high d. i admit that i had been trap in this correction *V*!! hahahaha
Monday, June 22, 2009
Buy RCECAP at 0.560 (Avg down)
Today done another round of sapu on RCECAP at 0.56, is this called catching the falling knife? So now finished my collect on RCECAP d, ~37% weight on RCECAP.
I'm checking what is the system called Asset-backed security (ABS), Fixed rate medium term notes and Revolving credits, anybody can advise me?
My current Cash v Share is 43% v 57%. will come for another round once market down below 1000. hehe *V*Today Genting SP closed at 0.65.. com-on, further down la!!! i'm waiting u at <0.60 *V*!!
Sunday, June 21, 2009
什 么 是 成 长 股 ？ 怎 样 发 掘 成 长 股 ？
>>>>>>>
2001-02-05 什 么 是 成 长 股 ？ 怎 样 发 掘 成 长 股 ？
最 近 冷 眼 在 南 洋 商 报 和 我 们 分 享 他 的 多 年 投 资 经 验 ， 那 就 是 “反 向 成 长”。 它 的 意 思 就 是 ：“ 选 时 要 反 向 ， 选 股 要 成 长 。”
可 见 成 长 股 在 投 资 组 合 里 的 重 要 性 。
但 是 怎 样 发 掘 成 长 股 呢 ？
在 还 没 有 回 答 这 问 题 之 前 ， 让 我 们 先 来 鉴 定 一 下 ， 怎 样 的 股 才 可 算 成 长 股 ？
什 么 是 成 长 股 ？
顾 名 思 义 ， 有 成 长 的 公 司 就 是 成 长 股 。这 题 目 表 面 看 起 来 很 简 单 ， 其 实 是 很 复 杂 的 。 让 我 举 些 例 子 ：
第 一 个 例 子 ：
一 间 公 司 十 年 前 的 资 金 是20 million ， 今 天 的 资 金 是200 million ， 它 是 不 是 成 长 股 ？
答 ： 表 面 看 起 来 它 的 资 金 从20 million 增 加 到200 million 是 有 增 长 了180 million 。 但 是 还 得 看 它 所 增 加 的 资 金 是 从 何 而 来 才 可 下 定 论 。 如 果 增 加 的 资 金 是 从 附 加 股 而 来 ， 它 不 算 成 长 股 。 如 果 是 赚 回 来 的 就 算 成 长 股 。
第 二 个 例 子 ：
科 技 资 源 (TRI) 经 营 的 行 业 是 大 家 公 认 成 长 最 快 的 流 动 电 话 ， 英 美 烟 草 (BAT) 经 营 的 行 业 是 香 烟 。 请 问 那 一 间 才 是 成 长 股 ？
答 ：BAT 过 去 三 年 的 平 均 资 金 回 酬 (ROE)是1.31 零 吉 ， 而TRI 是 负0.40 零 吉 。 所 以BAT 才 是 成 长 股 。
这 样 子 的 解 释 法 很 多 人 都 不 能 明 白 ， 让 我 再 用 简 单 的 方 法 来 解 释 ：
BAT 在 过 去 三 年 ， 平 均 每1 零 吉 的 资 金 每 年 可 以 赚1.31 零 吉 ， 而TRI 的 每1 零 吉 资 金 每 年 却 要 亏0.40 零 吉 。 所 以BAT 才 是 成 长 股 ，TRI 却 是 负 成 长 股 。
第 三 个 例 子 ：
A ，B 两 间 公 司 的 资 金 都 是100 million, A公 司 每 年 赚20 million 而B 公 司 每 年 赚10 million 。 如 果 他 们 每 年 都 不 发 股 息 ， 过 了10 年 那 一 间 才 是 高 成 长 的 公 司 ？
答 ：当 然 是A 公 司 。过 了10 年A 公 司 的 资 金 是300 million ， 而B 公 司 的 资 金 只 有200 million 。 所 以 和B 公 司 比 较 ，A 公 司 就 是 高 成 长 的 公 司 。
第 四 个 例 子 ：
C ，D 两 间 公 司 的 资 金 都 是100 million 。
C 公 司 每 年 赚20 million 而D 公 司 每 年 赚10 million 。
C 公 司 每 年 都 把 赚 来 的 钱 当 做 股 息 分 发 给 股 东 ， 而D 公 司 从 来 都 不 发 股 息 ， 过 了 十 年 ，两 间 公 司 比 较 起 来 ，那 一 间 才 是 高 成 长 的 公 司？
答 ： 十 年 后 ，D 公 司 的 资 金 是200 million ， 而C 公 司 的 资 金 还 是100 million ，虽 然D 公 司 比 较 大 ，但 是C 公 司 才 算 高 成 长 的 公 司 。这 十 年 里C 公 司 的 资 金 虽 然 一 样 ， 但 是 它 的 股 东 却 已 经 获 得200 million 的 股 息 ， 他 们 可 以 利 用 这 股 息 再 投 资 。(C 公 司 本 身 没 有 成 长， 它 的 股 东 却 可 成 长 。)
那 么 我 们 怎 样 发 掘 成 长 股 呢 ？
我 是 用ROE 来 发 掘 成 长 股 。ROE 的 中 文 译 名 是 “ 资 金 回 酬 ”
每 股 净 利EPS 除 以 每 股 净 资 产NTA ， 就 是 资 金 回 酬ROE 。
每 只 股 票 都 可 算 出 它 的ROE ，ROE 越 高 的 股 票 就 是 越 好 的 成 长 股 。
(但 是 用ROE 不 能 只 看1 年 ， 最 好 是 看3 年 平 均 或5 年 平 均 。)
注 ：
ROE = Return On Equity
EPS divides by NTA = ROE
EPS = Earning Per Share
NTA = Net Tangible Asset
可 能 你 会 觉 得ROE 很 难 明 白 ，我 再 用 简 单 的 语 文 来 解 释 ：
ROE ＝ 0.20就 是 说 ；1.00 零 吉 的 资 金 每 年 能 赚0.20 零 吉 。
ROE ＝ 0.50就 是 说 ；1.00 零 吉 的 资 金 每 年 能 赚0.50 零 吉 。
所 以ROE 越 高 就 是 越 好 的 股 票 。
让 我 在 举 个 例 子 ：
大 众 银 行2000 年 的 每 股 净 利EPS 是0.30 零 吉 ， 而 它 的 每 股 净 资 产NTA 是1.82 零 吉 。 请 问 它 的 资 金 回 酬ROE 是 多 少 ？
答 ：0.30 除 以1.82 ＝0.16 ， 所 以 它 的ROE 就 是0.16 。 换 言 之 ， 在2000 年 ，大 众 银 行 每1 零 吉 的 资 金 可 以 赚0.16 零 吉 。( 或 每 年16% 的 回 酬)
不 要 小 看 这0.16 的ROE ， 只 要 五 年 它 就 能 使1 零 吉 变 成2 零 吉 或 开1 个 番 。
详 解 如 下 ：
1.00 ＋ 16% = 1.16
1.16 ＋ 16% = 1.35
1.35 ＋ 16% = 1.56
1.56 ＋ 16% = 1.81
1.81 ＋ 16% = 2.10
总 结 ：
1) 经 营 高 成 长 的 行 业 不 一 定 就 是 成 长 股 。
2) 通 过 合 并 成 长 的 公 司 不 能 算 真 正 的 成 长 股 。(公 司 成 长 ， 股 东 没 有 成 长)
3) 通 过 发 附 加 股 成 长 的 公 司 也 不 能 算 真 正 的 成 长 股 。(公 司 成 长 ， 股 东 没 有 成 长)
4) 通 过 公 司 本 身 的 赚 钱 能 力 而 成 长 的 公 司 才 是 真 正 的 成 长 股 。
5) ROE 高 的 股 票 就 是 高 成 长 股 。
6) ROE 低 的 股 票 就 是 低 成 长 股 。
7) 公 司 每 年 都 把 赚 来 的 钱 分 发 给 股 东 ， 造 成 公 司 本 身 没 有 成 长 ， 这 类 股 票 也 算 成 长 股 。(公 司 没 有 成 长 ， 股 东 却 可 成 长 。)
KLSE.8K..
<<<<<<<
Justfor sharing, read this from KLSE.8K's e-book.. *V*!
2001-02-05 什 么 是 成 长 股 ？ 怎 样 发 掘 成 长 股 ？
最 近 冷 眼 在 南 洋 商 报 和 我 们 分 享 他 的 多 年 投 资 经 验 ， 那 就 是 “反 向 成 长”。 它 的 意 思 就 是 ：“ 选 时 要 反 向 ， 选 股 要 成 长 。”
可 见 成 长 股 在 投 资 组 合 里 的 重 要 性 。
但 是 怎 样 发 掘 成 长 股 呢 ？
在 还 没 有 回 答 这 问 题 之 前 ， 让 我 们 先 来 鉴 定 一 下 ， 怎 样 的 股 才 可 算 成 长 股 ？
什 么 是 成 长 股 ？
顾 名 思 义 ， 有 成 长 的 公 司 就 是 成 长 股 。这 题 目 表 面 看 起 来 很 简 单 ， 其 实 是 很 复 杂 的 。 让 我 举 些 例 子 ：
第 一 个 例 子 ：
一 间 公 司 十 年 前 的 资 金 是20 million ， 今 天 的 资 金 是200 million ， 它 是 不 是 成 长 股 ？
答 ： 表 面 看 起 来 它 的 资 金 从20 million 增 加 到200 million 是 有 增 长 了180 million 。 但 是 还 得 看 它 所 增 加 的 资 金 是 从 何 而 来 才 可 下 定 论 。 如 果 增 加 的 资 金 是 从 附 加 股 而 来 ， 它 不 算 成 长 股 。 如 果 是 赚 回 来 的 就 算 成 长 股 。
第 二 个 例 子 ：
科 技 资 源 (TRI) 经 营 的 行 业 是 大 家 公 认 成 长 最 快 的 流 动 电 话 ， 英 美 烟 草 (BAT) 经 营 的 行 业 是 香 烟 。 请 问 那 一 间 才 是 成 长 股 ？
答 ：BAT 过 去 三 年 的 平 均 资 金 回 酬 (ROE)是1.31 零 吉 ， 而TRI 是 负0.40 零 吉 。 所 以BAT 才 是 成 长 股 。
这 样 子 的 解 释 法 很 多 人 都 不 能 明 白 ， 让 我 再 用 简 单 的 方 法 来 解 释 ：
BAT 在 过 去 三 年 ， 平 均 每1 零 吉 的 资 金 每 年 可 以 赚1.31 零 吉 ， 而TRI 的 每1 零 吉 资 金 每 年 却 要 亏0.40 零 吉 。 所 以BAT 才 是 成 长 股 ，TRI 却 是 负 成 长 股 。
第 三 个 例 子 ：
A ，B 两 间 公 司 的 资 金 都 是100 million, A公 司 每 年 赚20 million 而B 公 司 每 年 赚10 million 。 如 果 他 们 每 年 都 不 发 股 息 ， 过 了10 年 那 一 间 才 是 高 成 长 的 公 司 ？
答 ：当 然 是A 公 司 。过 了10 年A 公 司 的 资 金 是300 million ， 而B 公 司 的 资 金 只 有200 million 。 所 以 和B 公 司 比 较 ，A 公 司 就 是 高 成 长 的 公 司 。
第 四 个 例 子 ：
C ，D 两 间 公 司 的 资 金 都 是100 million 。
C 公 司 每 年 赚20 million 而D 公 司 每 年 赚10 million 。
C 公 司 每 年 都 把 赚 来 的 钱 当 做 股 息 分 发 给 股 东 ， 而D 公 司 从 来 都 不 发 股 息 ， 过 了 十 年 ，两 间 公 司 比 较 起 来 ，那 一 间 才 是 高 成 长 的 公 司？
答 ： 十 年 后 ，D 公 司 的 资 金 是200 million ， 而C 公 司 的 资 金 还 是100 million ，虽 然D 公 司 比 较 大 ，但 是C 公 司 才 算 高 成 长 的 公 司 。这 十 年 里C 公 司 的 资 金 虽 然 一 样 ， 但 是 它 的 股 东 却 已 经 获 得200 million 的 股 息 ， 他 们 可 以 利 用 这 股 息 再 投 资 。(C 公 司 本 身 没 有 成 长， 它 的 股 东 却 可 成 长 。)
那 么 我 们 怎 样 发 掘 成 长 股 呢 ？
我 是 用ROE 来 发 掘 成 长 股 。ROE 的 中 文 译 名 是 “ 资 金 回 酬 ”
每 股 净 利EPS 除 以 每 股 净 资 产NTA ， 就 是 资 金 回 酬ROE 。
每 只 股 票 都 可 算 出 它 的ROE ，ROE 越 高 的 股 票 就 是 越 好 的 成 长 股 。
(但 是 用ROE 不 能 只 看1 年 ， 最 好 是 看3 年 平 均 或5 年 平 均 。)
注 ：
ROE = Return On Equity
EPS divides by NTA = ROE
EPS = Earning Per Share
NTA = Net Tangible Asset
可 能 你 会 觉 得ROE 很 难 明 白 ，我 再 用 简 单 的 语 文 来 解 释 ：
ROE ＝ 0.20就 是 说 ；1.00 零 吉 的 资 金 每 年 能 赚0.20 零 吉 。
ROE ＝ 0.50就 是 说 ；1.00 零 吉 的 资 金 每 年 能 赚0.50 零 吉 。
所 以ROE 越 高 就 是 越 好 的 股 票 。
让 我 在 举 个 例 子 ：
大 众 银 行2000 年 的 每 股 净 利EPS 是0.30 零 吉 ， 而 它 的 每 股 净 资 产NTA 是1.82 零 吉 。 请 问 它 的 资 金 回 酬ROE 是 多 少 ？
答 ：0.30 除 以1.82 ＝0.16 ， 所 以 它 的ROE 就 是0.16 。 换 言 之 ， 在2000 年 ，大 众 银 行 每1 零 吉 的 资 金 可 以 赚0.16 零 吉 。( 或 每 年16% 的 回 酬)
不 要 小 看 这0.16 的ROE ， 只 要 五 年 它 就 能 使1 零 吉 变 成2 零 吉 或 开1 个 番 。
详 解 如 下 ：
1.00 ＋ 16% = 1.16
1.16 ＋ 16% = 1.35
1.35 ＋ 16% = 1.56
1.56 ＋ 16% = 1.81
1.81 ＋ 16% = 2.10
总 结 ：
1) 经 营 高 成 长 的 行 业 不 一 定 就 是 成 长 股 。
2) 通 过 合 并 成 长 的 公 司 不 能 算 真 正 的 成 长 股 。(公 司 成 长 ， 股 东 没 有 成 长)
3) 通 过 发 附 加 股 成 长 的 公 司 也 不 能 算 真 正 的 成 长 股 。(公 司 成 长 ， 股 东 没 有 成 长)
4) 通 过 公 司 本 身 的 赚 钱 能 力 而 成 长 的 公 司 才 是 真 正 的 成 长 股 。
5) ROE 高 的 股 票 就 是 高 成 长 股 。
6) ROE 低 的 股 票 就 是 低 成 长 股 。
7) 公 司 每 年 都 把 赚 来 的 钱 分 发 给 股 东 ， 造 成 公 司 本 身 没 有 成 长 ， 这 类 股 票 也 算 成 长 股 。(公 司 没 有 成 长 ， 股 东 却 可 成 长 。)
KLSE.8K..
<<<<<<<
Justfor sharing, read this from KLSE.8K's e-book.. *V*!
Friday, June 19, 2009
Buy RCECAP at 0.590
Today only able to catch 60 lots at 0.59, cannot get another 40 at 0.58 to complete the plan. Actually there is a bit changes as i see that it is hard to get to below 0.55 in the morning. hmm.. so adjusted to bit higher target, i had miss out the chance to buy TGOFFS-WA at 0.705 because waiting it to drop to 0.68, so this time i bot a bit at 0.59 for RCECAP 1st. Unfortunately 0.58 oso cannot make it. O.k. la, let see monday how.I also plan to buy TGOFFS-WA at 0.98 but too bad, no seller. but i don't understand why the price bounced back to 1.03 even though there are no buyer?! why har?!
Thursday, June 18, 2009
RCECAP
Just look into RCECAP, no doubt that their main business is providing loan to ppl who need it and they are smart because they are providing personal loans to government servants through strategic affiliation with credit cooperatives, where repayments are done via the Salary Deduction Scheme. Haha, at least the risk for the loan owner to "jiok chou" is low because they work in goverment sector ma.. hahaha *V*!!
From latest Q report, around 84% of the profit is comming from financial loan & 12% coming from investment and holding management. Since they are doing financial loan, so the fix asset is low, because they no need machine, unless they have to print ringgit la.. haha.. On the other hand, figure in financial activities is high as u can see at the long term investment amount and long term borrowing amount.
Latest figure on balence sheet shows that the cash/deposit is 214M and the current Liabilities is 346M for RCECAP. Have to make sure that they receive the payment from the loan consistenly so that at the end of the year they can cover the total of the current liabiities. the delta for cash and liabilities is 132M and the loan & trade receivables at date is 146M, quite tight huh?! luckly they loan payment terms is by salary deduct scheme. 1 question to ask, did RCECAP also giving personal loan to non-government servants that do not have the repayments through the Salary Deduction Scheme?? this is important rite?!
Financial wise should not be a problem if they maintain to receive the consistant payment from the scheme. The only remaining concern is the 1 question that i ask my self lol.
In terms of the performance wise, the RoE for this company are as below:
26.16 (06), 49.77(07), 27.4(08), and the latest 22.3(09)
My understanding from this figure is when the market is good (07-08), the consumer force will be strong and more ppl is applying loan to spend. other point is the RoE performance will be more or less maintain at it is ( in this case i would say is >20) because the payment from the loan any how have to be done (more over through salary deduction scheme!!) regardless of market situation -> crash or not crash (i believe the loan that provided by RCECAP is calculated in the term of year, need to confirm!!). So i would expect that we may only see the effect of the resent market tsunami on the RoE after next few quarter, agree? but 1 think strange is th e revenue is increasing for RCECAP! mean more ppl is applying loan in this kind of market. strange!!!
For others important ratio such as current ratio, the latest figure is 1.08, only slightly above 1, not so good lo. Debt to Cap. ratio is 0.68, as comparable to pas few years performance which is around 0.7+.
So for current RCECAP price at 0.585, converted to Pe with latest EPS 2.60 sen, assume the same earning in coming 4 quarter, the forward EPS estimated to be at 10.4 sen, the PE will be at 5.63. quite low lol..
To enter RCECAP, the risk will be focus on how strong the company is able to retrave the schaduled payment from the loan stably and how to further improve the current ratio as i can see the current debt is ngam ngam can be cover by all her current asset (with the cash on-hand, RCECAP are not able to cover it curent liabilities lol). Anyhow, since the loan payment will be made through salary deduction scheme and the target of the customer is from goverment sector, i think this had minimized the risk for this bat to lower stage.
My plan is:
- Will allocate not more then 30% from my capital on RCECAP.
- Price to enter, i will follow SAM's call and start to collect stage by stage with anything below 0.55.
I'm thinking whether should i wait for Monday *V*!!! hahaha... Time to sleep..
From latest Q report, around 84% of the profit is comming from financial loan & 12% coming from investment and holding management. Since they are doing financial loan, so the fix asset is low, because they no need machine, unless they have to print ringgit la.. haha.. On the other hand, figure in financial activities is high as u can see at the long term investment amount and long term borrowing amount.
Latest figure on balence sheet shows that the cash/deposit is 214M and the current Liabilities is 346M for RCECAP. Have to make sure that they receive the payment from the loan consistenly so that at the end of the year they can cover the total of the current liabiities. the delta for cash and liabilities is 132M and the loan & trade receivables at date is 146M, quite tight huh?! luckly they loan payment terms is by salary deduct scheme. 1 question to ask, did RCECAP also giving personal loan to non-government servants that do not have the repayments through the Salary Deduction Scheme?? this is important rite?!
Financial wise should not be a problem if they maintain to receive the consistant payment from the scheme. The only remaining concern is the 1 question that i ask my self lol.
In terms of the performance wise, the RoE for this company are as below:
26.16 (06), 49.77(07), 27.4(08), and the latest 22.3(09)
My understanding from this figure is when the market is good (07-08), the consumer force will be strong and more ppl is applying loan to spend. other point is the RoE performance will be more or less maintain at it is ( in this case i would say is >20) because the payment from the loan any how have to be done (more over through salary deduction scheme!!) regardless of market situation -> crash or not crash (i believe the loan that provided by RCECAP is calculated in the term of year, need to confirm!!). So i would expect that we may only see the effect of the resent market tsunami on the RoE after next few quarter, agree? but 1 think strange is th e revenue is increasing for RCECAP! mean more ppl is applying loan in this kind of market. strange!!!
For others important ratio such as current ratio, the latest figure is 1.08, only slightly above 1, not so good lo. Debt to Cap. ratio is 0.68, as comparable to pas few years performance which is around 0.7+.
So for current RCECAP price at 0.585, converted to Pe with latest EPS 2.60 sen, assume the same earning in coming 4 quarter, the forward EPS estimated to be at 10.4 sen, the PE will be at 5.63. quite low lol..
To enter RCECAP, the risk will be focus on how strong the company is able to retrave the schaduled payment from the loan stably and how to further improve the current ratio as i can see the current debt is ngam ngam can be cover by all her current asset (with the cash on-hand, RCECAP are not able to cover it curent liabilities lol). Anyhow, since the loan payment will be made through salary deduction scheme and the target of the customer is from goverment sector, i think this had minimized the risk for this bat to lower stage.
My plan is:
- Will allocate not more then 30% from my capital on RCECAP.
- Price to enter, i will follow SAM's call and start to collect stage by stage with anything below 0.55.
I'm thinking whether should i wait for Monday *V*!!! hahaha... Time to sleep..
Eyes on the market 2
Few counter is under my monitoring radar, will look at the performance in this coming few days. Expect high selling force in coming few days lol, then is the time to grab good stock with cheaper price. *V*
So they are from few sectors: OnG, Steel and Consumer prod. Let see, but until now most of them still quite high in the price. As usual, RCECAP by SAM oso in the list. wakakaka.
Have to tell my self, don't simply buy because want to buy. Some time i feel boring if not holding any stock on hand (or maybe cash ratio is too high!! hehe *V*). So need to be very careful before jump in again. Of cause i'm not planning to hold more then 5 counters on hand in 1 time, it is hard for me to monitor, very tired lol because i cannot leave the counter there after buy and come back to check it out after few month, arh!! so i'm not the investor and is a trader?!! hahaha. So my up coming plan is:
To focus on the 2 highest potential counter and 80% full load. hehe, high risk lol...
Today Genting SP pump up to 0.675 d. sian.... still thinking whether wanna Q at 0.65 or not *V*!
So they are from few sectors: OnG, Steel and Consumer prod. Let see, but until now most of them still quite high in the price. As usual, RCECAP by SAM oso in the list. wakakaka.
Have to tell my self, don't simply buy because want to buy. Some time i feel boring if not holding any stock on hand (or maybe cash ratio is too high!! hehe *V*). So need to be very careful before jump in again. Of cause i'm not planning to hold more then 5 counters on hand in 1 time, it is hard for me to monitor, very tired lol because i cannot leave the counter there after buy and come back to check it out after few month, arh!! so i'm not the investor and is a trader?!! hahaha. So my up coming plan is:
To focus on the 2 highest potential counter and 80% full load. hehe, high risk lol...
Today Genting SP pump up to 0.675 d. sian.... still thinking whether wanna Q at 0.65 or not *V*!
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Sell all YTLPOWR-WB at 0.950
Today disposed all YTLPOWR-WB at 0.950.
Don't want to wait d as the market is turning down now, if i not disposed now, then maybe have to wait for the next round d, to play save, i sacrifice the chance from the booster by the dividend payment and new project biting results. btw, who know it is a chance or curse?? haha,自我安慰. Any how, I think if the market going down in coming few weeks, i should able to buy it back at anything <0.90.
As for AXIATA, will sell out tomorrow at anything around 2.35, haha, possible?? any how, i already have >20% profit from it based on current price.
Up coming plan:
Genting SP coming down d, today close at 0.65 SGD. Need to do quite some homework on it as this will be a stock for double up, tripper up .... in coming 1 yr especially when it started to operate the Sentosa casino!! yeah!!!
Will start to buy in if it drops to below 0.60. but how i'm going to collect the Genting SP? i not yet planned, will do it soon. Thanks SAM for reminding me about the chicken that going to give us golden egg *V*!!.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Sell all PANTECH at 0.895
Disposed all my PANTECH at 0.895.
Feel not comfortable to hold it anymore since the crude oil price hit 72+ USD d.. Initially plan to sell along the raise, but after she hit 0.94 on Tuesday, until now she is not showing her intensity to moving up lol. Today start to heading downward d with high selling pressure, not really sure it is force selling or what but it seem like no more pushing power.
Haha, cabut 1st lo, i have to be more clear on what i'm doing. How bout if next Monday market keep on go up and tonight crude oil naik lagi?? haha.. will buy back anything below 0.84 cts with stable condition, of cause with reasonable 人和 factors.
Stock on hand and strategy:
1) YTLPOWR-WB
==> Will continue hold until the date around dividend expired date (28/6) and bangla project tender results is out (not sure which date yet). I feel more comfortable with YTLPOWR-WB because she can stand on market falling and more stable *V*!!
2) KFIMA
==> Hold, same reason as when i buy in, low PE, low debt, volume is high but price not moving.
O.K. time to read some article. *V*!
Thursday, June 11, 2009
如何解開散戶屢買屢套的魔咒
http://tolitoqi.blogspot.com/2008/10/blog-post.html
>>>>>>>
‧帆船手 2008/06/30
如果以散戶投資人買股票時最常選用的方法來做個分門別類，價值分析當屬其中的最大宗，然後技術分析次之，心理分析再次之。毫無疑問的，價值分析最受到歡迎，至於心理分析則恐怕連「門派」都稱不上。然而台股這波慘跌下來，受傷最慘重亦是價值分析派，技術分析派次之，而心理分析派則多半卻能夠逃過一劫。
這三種分析工具的運用全憑個人，其實很難就其好壞分出高下。但是對於大多數的散戶投資人而言，這三種工具於使用上的難易程度卻是極其分明的：散戶投資人多半認為價值分析最為明確簡單好用，技術分析太過複雜，至於心理分析則完全不知該如何運用。散戶以上的認知明顯存有盲點，依我的看法，我倒認為價值分析的工程最為浩大，層次也最高，我甚至認為這是資本家才玩得起的遊戲；至於技術分析則是功力見高低，的確是複製了點；再至於心理分析就再單純不過了，只須儘管違反自己的心意就對了。
事實上，問題出在散戶一直都未把買賣股票的本質作出清楚的定義，是「投資」還是「交易」於事先沒有定調；或者說從頭至尾都沒有誠實的對待過自己，買進股票賺了就當成交易，賠了就當是投資。據我所瞭解，別說是散戶，就連主力大戶都一樣，是沒有人在一開始就抱著投資打算的，「投資」是不得已的事，若在買進股票後已有所斬獲，沒有人會笨到去當公司的股東等著領配息。因此長期當股東只是下下策，那只是在套牢後不得不的選擇！
也因此在買進股票時，就會把公司的「價值」因素列為買進策略的最優先考量，因為這至少可做為買進失利後的最後灘頭堡，這樣在做買進決策的當下，感覺就會覺得扎實多了----萬一買進後即使被套也無須太過擔心，因為價格最終一定會來反應這個「價值」的；就算沒有，每年等著領配息，總有一天還是可以解套的。
於是價值分析法普遍為散戶所樂用，價值分析派的投資人當然也就在市場大行其道，並佔為最大族群。這種現象對那種向來被媒體吹捧的投資大師看在眼裡，不啻是有利可圖的大好機會，於是乎這些大師就投其所好，迎合其口味，開口價值閉口亦是價值的，若剛好遇到市場處在明顯的多頭時，這些大師就可受到虔誠地膜拜，也因此使得大師的名氣更加響亮，同時也更加使得這些散戶對價值分析這一套方法深信不疑。可惜好景不長，風雲變色後，目前國內最出名的三大價值名師已成為經常被某投資論壇拿來冷嘲熱諷的對象。在我看來，他們的確是很擅長畫大餅，唬得信徒如癡如醉的。
為什麼我會說散戶存有屢買屢套的魔咒呢？
那是因為習慣以「價值因素」為首要考量，因而買進股票的時機都傾向選擇在價格下跌時，在自認為價值高於價格時，因此在買進時態度從容，完全沒有後顧之憂，下跌的幅度越大就越有信心。（KLSE.8K Investment style on Megan??)
不可否認的，這種買股票的方法運用在漲漲跌跌的多頭市場，有時確實是挺管用的，但一旦碰到長時間連續下跌的空頭市場來臨時，恐怕就會屍骨無存了！雖有「價值的神主牌」護身，但最好祈求老天保佑，所買進的股票真的物超所值，真的是價值非凡，否則將來是怎樣離開市場的，都不知道！
然而如何才能解開屢買屢套的魔咒？首先你得抬起頭，然後將眼光的焦點放在高處，順著趨勢買進市場當前最強的強勢股，但若市場當前的強勢股從缺時，就算你不習慣去作空，但也請不要以搶便宜的心態貿然去買進市場的弱勢股。學習這套交易模式並不是很難，但要克服先天上人性的弱點卻十分困難，通常只有那些曾經在市場上吃過大虧的人，並在經過痛定思痛以及大澈大悟之後，才能開始具備獨立思考的能力，才可通過內心天人交戰般的拉扯考驗，才敢逆著自己的心意反群眾之道而行。這個魔咒不是別人所下的降頭，而是跟隨人性早已自我存在了，因此想要解開這個魔咒你也無法請求別人代勞，僅能憑藉自己的意志去加以克服而已。
<<<<<<<<
New things for me!! i don't know that there is a method called 心理派!!
To be honest, I'm not an investor, more like a trader.. haha, so why i need to go through so deep in the company performance? (unless i'm going to hold the counter for >3 years where this will not happen on me atleast for now *V*).
I think what i should do is:
1) Look at the company resent performance (2 -3 yrs) to identify the management behavior and the business of the company as well as current PE (地利).
2) Analysis on the market trend of the business that the company involve as well as the stage of the stock market --> bull / bear or flat or fluctuation..... (天时).
3) Sensitive to market news, share volume, country politic... (人和).
4) To apply 反向思考 during disposal of share on hand！！
* This is extreamly hard because i have to overcome my human nature, greedy!!
Haha.. I'm trying to prove the above method so that i'm not just talking non sense here.. *V*!!
>>>>>>>
‧帆船手 2008/06/30
如果以散戶投資人買股票時最常選用的方法來做個分門別類，價值分析當屬其中的最大宗，然後技術分析次之，心理分析再次之。毫無疑問的，價值分析最受到歡迎，至於心理分析則恐怕連「門派」都稱不上。然而台股這波慘跌下來，受傷最慘重亦是價值分析派，技術分析派次之，而心理分析派則多半卻能夠逃過一劫。
這三種分析工具的運用全憑個人，其實很難就其好壞分出高下。但是對於大多數的散戶投資人而言，這三種工具於使用上的難易程度卻是極其分明的：散戶投資人多半認為價值分析最為明確簡單好用，技術分析太過複雜，至於心理分析則完全不知該如何運用。散戶以上的認知明顯存有盲點，依我的看法，我倒認為價值分析的工程最為浩大，層次也最高，我甚至認為這是資本家才玩得起的遊戲；至於技術分析則是功力見高低，的確是複製了點；再至於心理分析就再單純不過了，只須儘管違反自己的心意就對了。
事實上，問題出在散戶一直都未把買賣股票的本質作出清楚的定義，是「投資」還是「交易」於事先沒有定調；或者說從頭至尾都沒有誠實的對待過自己，買進股票賺了就當成交易，賠了就當是投資。據我所瞭解，別說是散戶，就連主力大戶都一樣，是沒有人在一開始就抱著投資打算的，「投資」是不得已的事，若在買進股票後已有所斬獲，沒有人會笨到去當公司的股東等著領配息。因此長期當股東只是下下策，那只是在套牢後不得不的選擇！
也因此在買進股票時，就會把公司的「價值」因素列為買進策略的最優先考量，因為這至少可做為買進失利後的最後灘頭堡，這樣在做買進決策的當下，感覺就會覺得扎實多了----萬一買進後即使被套也無須太過擔心，因為價格最終一定會來反應這個「價值」的；就算沒有，每年等著領配息，總有一天還是可以解套的。
於是價值分析法普遍為散戶所樂用，價值分析派的投資人當然也就在市場大行其道，並佔為最大族群。這種現象對那種向來被媒體吹捧的投資大師看在眼裡，不啻是有利可圖的大好機會，於是乎這些大師就投其所好，迎合其口味，開口價值閉口亦是價值的，若剛好遇到市場處在明顯的多頭時，這些大師就可受到虔誠地膜拜，也因此使得大師的名氣更加響亮，同時也更加使得這些散戶對價值分析這一套方法深信不疑。可惜好景不長，風雲變色後，目前國內最出名的三大價值名師已成為經常被某投資論壇拿來冷嘲熱諷的對象。在我看來，他們的確是很擅長畫大餅，唬得信徒如癡如醉的。
為什麼我會說散戶存有屢買屢套的魔咒呢？
那是因為習慣以「價值因素」為首要考量，因而買進股票的時機都傾向選擇在價格下跌時，在自認為價值高於價格時，因此在買進時態度從容，完全沒有後顧之憂，下跌的幅度越大就越有信心。（KLSE.8K Investment style on Megan??)
不可否認的，這種買股票的方法運用在漲漲跌跌的多頭市場，有時確實是挺管用的，但一旦碰到長時間連續下跌的空頭市場來臨時，恐怕就會屍骨無存了！雖有「價值的神主牌」護身，但最好祈求老天保佑，所買進的股票真的物超所值，真的是價值非凡，否則將來是怎樣離開市場的，都不知道！
然而如何才能解開屢買屢套的魔咒？首先你得抬起頭，然後將眼光的焦點放在高處，順著趨勢買進市場當前最強的強勢股，但若市場當前的強勢股從缺時，就算你不習慣去作空，但也請不要以搶便宜的心態貿然去買進市場的弱勢股。學習這套交易模式並不是很難，但要克服先天上人性的弱點卻十分困難，通常只有那些曾經在市場上吃過大虧的人，並在經過痛定思痛以及大澈大悟之後，才能開始具備獨立思考的能力，才可通過內心天人交戰般的拉扯考驗，才敢逆著自己的心意反群眾之道而行。這個魔咒不是別人所下的降頭，而是跟隨人性早已自我存在了，因此想要解開這個魔咒你也無法請求別人代勞，僅能憑藉自己的意志去加以克服而已。
<<<<<<<<
New things for me!! i don't know that there is a method called 心理派!!
To be honest, I'm not an investor, more like a trader.. haha, so why i need to go through so deep in the company performance? (unless i'm going to hold the counter for >3 years where this will not happen on me atleast for now *V*).
I think what i should do is:
1) Look at the company resent performance (2 -3 yrs) to identify the management behavior and the business of the company as well as current PE (地利).
2) Analysis on the market trend of the business that the company involve as well as the stage of the stock market --> bull / bear or flat or fluctuation..... (天时).
3) Sensitive to market news, share volume, country politic... (人和).
4) To apply 反向思考 during disposal of share on hand！！
* This is extreamly hard because i have to overcome my human nature, greedy!!
Haha.. I'm trying to prove the above method so that i'm not just talking non sense here.. *V*!!
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
勿被情緒左右‧不做“市場先生”
Found this on ck5354's blog, nice to read and understand *V*!!
>>>>>>>
人們有時說，要做個智慧投資者，就必須不被情緒所左右。但這不是事實﹔相反，你應當逆情緒而行。
即便在近期市場動盪之後，道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數仍較3月份低點上漲了30%左右。你自然會對此感到開心或釋然。但本傑明‧格拉漢姆（Benjamin Graham）卻認為，你應當訓練自己對此類狀況感到憂慮。
在這種時候，求教格拉漢姆的智慧顯得尤為合適。
60 年前的1949年5月25日，這位金融分析的始祖出版了他的《智慧投資者》（The Intelligent Investor）一書，本專欄也是為了向這本書致敬而得名的。現在市場似乎正處於格拉漢姆當初擔憂的那種情緒：戰戰兢兢的樂觀、不安全感以及幾乎無可救 藥地相信市場已經觸底。
應該逆情緒行動
當然，你不能抹殺自己的感覺。但你可以，也應該逆情緒行動。
Heath Heingardner股票突然變得更加昂貴起來。根據耶魯大學教授席勒（Robert Shiller）的數據，自3月份以來，標準普爾500指數的市盈率已經從13.1倍飆升到了15.5倍，為將近25年來最大也是最快的升幅。（如格拉漢 姆所建議的，席勒採用的是經通貨膨脹因素調整後的10年平均市盈率。）在10週的時間裡，股票已經從逢低買盤的邊遠走向了實價買賣。因此，除非你已經退 休，並靠投資過活，否則你就不應該對此感到慶祝，你應該感到擔憂。
格拉漢姆努力防止自己被捲入“市場先生”的情緒波動－－即隨著股市走高而興奮，隨著股市走低而低落。“市場先生”是他對投資者集體情緒的比喻。
在一篇自傳短文中，格拉漢姆寫到，他認為無欲無求的哲學如同來自天堂的福音。他還說，自己心境的主要構成包括了“靜定超然”以及“心如止水”。
格 拉漢姆的最後一個妻子形容他“高尚，但非凡人”。我曾經問格拉漢姆的兒子這是甚麼意思。小格拉漢姆說自己的父親“心不在焉”，在跟其他人打交道的時候的確 有些障礙。小格拉漢姆解釋道，他總是在心裡想著很多事情。如果投資者有這種距離感或是超然感的話，或許尤其適合於此道。
格拉漢姆曾經說過，他對文學、數學和哲學的浸淫有助於他以永恒而非日常的觀點去看待市場。
或許正因為如此，格拉漢姆才幾乎不變地將其他人的狂熱視為黃色的警示信號，而在別人的哀嘆中卻能看到希望之光。
多次忠告投資者
得 益於逆情緒而行的心得，格拉漢姆每每總是能發現市場何時走到臨界點。1945年底的時候，市場上漲了36%，他警告投資者要減持股票﹔次年股市下挫8%。 在1958－59年股市好轉時，格拉漢姆再次重彈悲觀老調﹔其後股市投資收益連年起伏。1971年底，就在數十年來最大熊市來襲之前，格拉漢姆忠告投資者 要保持警惕。
1974年底股市處於水深火熱之中的時候，格拉漢姆在一次演說中準確地預見到股價可能會在很多年內萎靡不振。
危機亦是轉機
然後他又語驚四座地說這是個好消息。格拉漢姆解釋道，想到自己能夠將未來的新積蓄以非常令人滿意的條件進行投資，真正的投資者會感到高興而不是沮喪。
格拉漢姆還提出了一個更令人吃驚的說法：投資者可以把握長期熊市的“大好時機”獲利，這樣的運氣好得令人羡慕。
現在宣佈“購入持有策略已死”已經成為了流行。
一些批評人士甚至認為平均成本投資（每個月自動投資固定金額）是種愚蠢的做法。
格拉漢姆曾被問及平均成本投資是否能確保長期投資成功，他在1962年寫道，只要在各種狀況干擾下都能堅定不移地保持下去，那麼無論何時開始實施，這一策略最終都將帶來回報。
但他說，如果要做到這點，平均成本投資者必須要與其他人不同，不屈從於過去幾十年間伴隨股市起伏波動而交替變化的狂喜和沮喪情緒。
格拉漢姆總結道，我對此表示極大懷疑。
他並不是說，沒有人可以不受眾人的情緒波動影響，他的意思是很少有人能夠做到這點。要成為一個智慧投資者，你必須培養格拉漢姆所說的“堅定性格”――掌控自己情緒的能力。
總而言之，這就是要在股市突然上漲的時候，抵擋住“市場先生”狂熱情緒的傳染。
星洲日報／投資致富／投資風向球‧2009.06.08
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I'm thinking that for the Crude Oil stock, recently too many good news had shows up in the media. Demand increase, supply reduced by Mid East country, recovery of the economy where else in our country, we have the corporation between Petronas and others O & G company to expend their business to dig more oil at india sea and Bla Bla Bla.... After all this news floating up, should we trade the market in the opposite way??
Price of Crude oil had re-bounced 100% from the lowest price in early this year (35 USD PBR) and its only takes 2 - 3 months, will it come too fast?? Even though the demand is increasing and assumed that the market is recovered, the 70 USD of crude oil should be the fair price only in a stable market. Do you think the market is stable now? Most of the company hit by the economy tsunami badly in the end of 08 and early of 09, will they recovered so fast and back to position in 2 - 3 months time?? As per normal understanding, the 70 USD for crude oil should be the fair price for a health market, but now as we all know the market is not yet back to the position and the oil price already hit the position in advance, what this mean??
There is a theory saying that the share market will reflect the global economy 6-7 months earlier. Well!! i would rather play safe now. hahaha. cheer!!
>>>>>>>
人們有時說，要做個智慧投資者，就必須不被情緒所左右。但這不是事實﹔相反，你應當逆情緒而行。
即便在近期市場動盪之後，道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數仍較3月份低點上漲了30%左右。你自然會對此感到開心或釋然。但本傑明‧格拉漢姆（Benjamin Graham）卻認為，你應當訓練自己對此類狀況感到憂慮。
在這種時候，求教格拉漢姆的智慧顯得尤為合適。
60 年前的1949年5月25日，這位金融分析的始祖出版了他的《智慧投資者》（The Intelligent Investor）一書，本專欄也是為了向這本書致敬而得名的。現在市場似乎正處於格拉漢姆當初擔憂的那種情緒：戰戰兢兢的樂觀、不安全感以及幾乎無可救 藥地相信市場已經觸底。
應該逆情緒行動
當然，你不能抹殺自己的感覺。但你可以，也應該逆情緒行動。
Heath Heingardner股票突然變得更加昂貴起來。根據耶魯大學教授席勒（Robert Shiller）的數據，自3月份以來，標準普爾500指數的市盈率已經從13.1倍飆升到了15.5倍，為將近25年來最大也是最快的升幅。（如格拉漢 姆所建議的，席勒採用的是經通貨膨脹因素調整後的10年平均市盈率。）在10週的時間裡，股票已經從逢低買盤的邊遠走向了實價買賣。因此，除非你已經退 休，並靠投資過活，否則你就不應該對此感到慶祝，你應該感到擔憂。
格拉漢姆努力防止自己被捲入“市場先生”的情緒波動－－即隨著股市走高而興奮，隨著股市走低而低落。“市場先生”是他對投資者集體情緒的比喻。
在一篇自傳短文中，格拉漢姆寫到，他認為無欲無求的哲學如同來自天堂的福音。他還說，自己心境的主要構成包括了“靜定超然”以及“心如止水”。
格 拉漢姆的最後一個妻子形容他“高尚，但非凡人”。我曾經問格拉漢姆的兒子這是甚麼意思。小格拉漢姆說自己的父親“心不在焉”，在跟其他人打交道的時候的確 有些障礙。小格拉漢姆解釋道，他總是在心裡想著很多事情。如果投資者有這種距離感或是超然感的話，或許尤其適合於此道。
格拉漢姆曾經說過，他對文學、數學和哲學的浸淫有助於他以永恒而非日常的觀點去看待市場。
或許正因為如此，格拉漢姆才幾乎不變地將其他人的狂熱視為黃色的警示信號，而在別人的哀嘆中卻能看到希望之光。
多次忠告投資者
得 益於逆情緒而行的心得，格拉漢姆每每總是能發現市場何時走到臨界點。1945年底的時候，市場上漲了36%，他警告投資者要減持股票﹔次年股市下挫8%。 在1958－59年股市好轉時，格拉漢姆再次重彈悲觀老調﹔其後股市投資收益連年起伏。1971年底，就在數十年來最大熊市來襲之前，格拉漢姆忠告投資者 要保持警惕。
1974年底股市處於水深火熱之中的時候，格拉漢姆在一次演說中準確地預見到股價可能會在很多年內萎靡不振。
危機亦是轉機
然後他又語驚四座地說這是個好消息。格拉漢姆解釋道，想到自己能夠將未來的新積蓄以非常令人滿意的條件進行投資，真正的投資者會感到高興而不是沮喪。
格拉漢姆還提出了一個更令人吃驚的說法：投資者可以把握長期熊市的“大好時機”獲利，這樣的運氣好得令人羡慕。
現在宣佈“購入持有策略已死”已經成為了流行。
一些批評人士甚至認為平均成本投資（每個月自動投資固定金額）是種愚蠢的做法。
格拉漢姆曾被問及平均成本投資是否能確保長期投資成功，他在1962年寫道，只要在各種狀況干擾下都能堅定不移地保持下去，那麼無論何時開始實施，這一策略最終都將帶來回報。
但他說，如果要做到這點，平均成本投資者必須要與其他人不同，不屈從於過去幾十年間伴隨股市起伏波動而交替變化的狂喜和沮喪情緒。
格拉漢姆總結道，我對此表示極大懷疑。
他並不是說，沒有人可以不受眾人的情緒波動影響，他的意思是很少有人能夠做到這點。要成為一個智慧投資者，你必須培養格拉漢姆所說的“堅定性格”――掌控自己情緒的能力。
總而言之，這就是要在股市突然上漲的時候，抵擋住“市場先生”狂熱情緒的傳染。
星洲日報／投資致富／投資風向球‧2009.06.08
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I'm thinking that for the Crude Oil stock, recently too many good news had shows up in the media. Demand increase, supply reduced by Mid East country, recovery of the economy where else in our country, we have the corporation between Petronas and others O & G company to expend their business to dig more oil at india sea and Bla Bla Bla.... After all this news floating up, should we trade the market in the opposite way??
Price of Crude oil had re-bounced 100% from the lowest price in early this year (35 USD PBR) and its only takes 2 - 3 months, will it come too fast?? Even though the demand is increasing and assumed that the market is recovered, the 70 USD of crude oil should be the fair price only in a stable market. Do you think the market is stable now? Most of the company hit by the economy tsunami badly in the end of 08 and early of 09, will they recovered so fast and back to position in 2 - 3 months time?? As per normal understanding, the 70 USD for crude oil should be the fair price for a health market, but now as we all know the market is not yet back to the position and the oil price already hit the position in advance, what this mean??
There is a theory saying that the share market will reflect the global economy 6-7 months earlier. Well!! i would rather play safe now. hahaha. cheer!!
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Updated Blog Template *V*!!!
Dear all, I had updated my blog template, so please don't think that you had come into another blog oh... the black template feel not comfortable, feel very pressure.. so this 1 i feel better.. haha.. hope you enjoy like me too... haha *V*!!
Monday, June 8, 2009
勤做功課為何投資報酬率不佳？—破解股市迷思23
2009/03/25 23:20:53
＜勤做功課為何投資報酬率不佳？—破解股市迷思23＞
經常有偏愛股票投資的朋友，認為只要勤做功課，就一定能戰勝股市，因此，這些朋友不是努力閱讀財務報表，就是勤看財經新聞，要不然，就是花時間分析大盤與個股的技術分析走勢圖。但論結果，仍然不脫「賠錢」兩字。
勤做功課的朋友，有時候，往往虧損幅度還遠高於不愛做功課的人。諸如有些「傻人有傻福」型的投資人，買進了一檔股票，日子久了也忘了，忽然有一天，發現股價竟然漲了好幾倍，一開心，賣掉股票，換算持有期間的年報酬率，平均也有兩位數以上的表現。
花時間做功課的投資績效，卻輸給不花時間的人？這往往是股海常態，也常常讓有心人為之氣結。更嘔人的是，花時間挑了檔基本面好、財報漂亮的績優股，卻又眼看著投機股活蹦亂跳，而好股票的股價文風不動，真的也挺讓人傷心又難過。
但話說回來，勤做功課，就代表投資的報酬率就該增加嗎？
我覺得這根本是一個迷思，是投資人誤以為投資像考試，只要花時間讀書，就會考出好成績。但投資並非考試，為何努力做功課，就必然代表成績要好呢？更何況，讀書要有效率，要讀通、讀懂內容，考試才能拿冠軍，但有多少人搞通或搞懂投資股票的遊戲規則呢？
在投資市場上，常常看到許多朋友對於股票投資的獲利方法有哪幾種？都搞不清楚，就一味的砸錢買股票，自然產生東施效顰、啼笑皆非的效果。
舉例來說，投資人研究公司的基本面、財務報表，按理應該看重的是公司獲利能力，以及其盈餘是否能成為明年分紅的本錢。更內行與專業的投資人，要分析的則是公司長期穩定經營模式，以及創造長期現金收益的能力。這些是作為投資人是否要長期投資該檔股票，並藉以取得股利股息的關鍵因素。
但偏偏，許多基本面型投資人，不但要求公司獲利績效要浮現，更期盼其股價能提前反映未來獲利，在短時間內必須產生股價驚驚漲的效應。也就是說，長期分紅想要拿，短期資本利得也要取，兩頭都想兼顧，自然兩頭都顧不好。
再舉例來說，研究技術分析型的投資人，看重的應該是股價短期內上漲的可能性，但偏偏，為了擔心股價萬一漲不動時的風險，乾脆事前退而求其次，瞄準最壞仍要有股利股息可領的標的，因此選擇財報較佳、有利多題材的個股來投資。
結果發現，虧損累累的轉機型公司漲翻天，基本面佳的個股，卻漲個兩三天就逢高獲利回吐，發生利多出盡而慘遭高點套牢的現象。甚至，這些投資人將來的長期殖利率，還遠遜於短期股價下跌損失，可謂得不償失。
費心研究股市，努力鑽研財經新聞，或者用心看一家公司的財報或技術指標，這些都沒有錯，但問題往往出在，投資要得「法」，要掌握正確的方法，才有可能取得良好的投資績效。
投資的方法不對，在基本面上做技術面功夫，或在技術線型上做財報面功課，都會產生格格不入的績效不彰現象。又或者說，長期投資人卻跑去做短線投機，短線投機人又想玩長期投資，中途變換投資方針與方向，自然更是股票投資時的大忌。
做什麼，就該像什麼！想要長期投資績優股者，看重的既然是長期獲利表現，就應該對股價短期起伏，無所介懷。反過來說，既然著眼的是股價短期的漲跌，那麼，基本面虧損的公司，又何損於其會漲的利空出盡氣勢呢？
因為投資不是長期、短期，或基本面、技術面這樣簡單的分野而已，介於這些煢煢大範疇間的交叉組合與排列方式，不知凡幾，所以，更加使得投資人踏入股票投資領域後，會發生眼花撩亂，無所適從之感。
更何況，股市多頭時期、空頭時期，以及多頭初升段、主升段、末升段，和空頭的不同階段，市場會漲的、會跌的類股，又各有其特色，這種時間長軸中的不同特性之類股輪番表現，更加深了投資人想要靠單一之方法獲利的難度。
既然股票投資獲利難有單一、簡易之法，是否代表獲利就不可行呢？當然也非如此悲觀。因時制宜，以自己之不變，隨機應變股市無時無刻之變，可說是投資股市的最高指導原則，也是遊戲規則。
投資人與其花時間勤做功課，不如在勤做功課前，先掌握好股海投資應具備的觀念、態度與準備，才有可能把時間花在刀口上，取得輕鬆、愉快、甚至不勞而獲之投資佳績。
王志鈞
>>>>>
I think it is true. From my visit to most of the investment blog, there are mainly 2 groups, one groups of ppl will do a deep analysis on the company (deep means go until few year performance as well as each of the company activities and management team). And another group are focusing more on the market situation and selecting company based on recent or 1 to 2 year performance as well as share price concerning.
For me, both of it is work for money earning, if the company is extremely good but the situation is bad, you may need more time to get return (you have 地利 but no 天时& 人和). On the other hand, if the situation is correct and the company is good or even fair (we are not going to discuss bad company here because i still cannot accept bad company with good investment return *V*!) you may have 天时，地利，人和 all 3 of them, sure you will get your return faster but you have to pay more attention to the share / market performance.
If we talk about which 1 will give the maximum return? hmm... i would say both of tham can make a maximum return, only depends on how expert you to move with Mr. Market. haha
as per above article:
股市多頭時期、空頭時期，以及多頭初升段、主升段、末升段，和空頭的不同階段，市場會漲的、會跌的類股，又各有其特色，這種時間長軸中的不同特性之類股輪番表現，更加深了投資人想要靠單一之方法獲利的難度。
Try to look for the one that suit to me *V*!
http://blog.udn.com/solon8888/2782723
＜勤做功課為何投資報酬率不佳？—破解股市迷思23＞
經常有偏愛股票投資的朋友，認為只要勤做功課，就一定能戰勝股市，因此，這些朋友不是努力閱讀財務報表，就是勤看財經新聞，要不然，就是花時間分析大盤與個股的技術分析走勢圖。但論結果，仍然不脫「賠錢」兩字。
勤做功課的朋友，有時候，往往虧損幅度還遠高於不愛做功課的人。諸如有些「傻人有傻福」型的投資人，買進了一檔股票，日子久了也忘了，忽然有一天，發現股價竟然漲了好幾倍，一開心，賣掉股票，換算持有期間的年報酬率，平均也有兩位數以上的表現。
花時間做功課的投資績效，卻輸給不花時間的人？這往往是股海常態，也常常讓有心人為之氣結。更嘔人的是，花時間挑了檔基本面好、財報漂亮的績優股，卻又眼看著投機股活蹦亂跳，而好股票的股價文風不動，真的也挺讓人傷心又難過。
但話說回來，勤做功課，就代表投資的報酬率就該增加嗎？
我覺得這根本是一個迷思，是投資人誤以為投資像考試，只要花時間讀書，就會考出好成績。但投資並非考試，為何努力做功課，就必然代表成績要好呢？更何況，讀書要有效率，要讀通、讀懂內容，考試才能拿冠軍，但有多少人搞通或搞懂投資股票的遊戲規則呢？
在投資市場上，常常看到許多朋友對於股票投資的獲利方法有哪幾種？都搞不清楚，就一味的砸錢買股票，自然產生東施效顰、啼笑皆非的效果。
舉例來說，投資人研究公司的基本面、財務報表，按理應該看重的是公司獲利能力，以及其盈餘是否能成為明年分紅的本錢。更內行與專業的投資人，要分析的則是公司長期穩定經營模式，以及創造長期現金收益的能力。這些是作為投資人是否要長期投資該檔股票，並藉以取得股利股息的關鍵因素。
但偏偏，許多基本面型投資人，不但要求公司獲利績效要浮現，更期盼其股價能提前反映未來獲利，在短時間內必須產生股價驚驚漲的效應。也就是說，長期分紅想要拿，短期資本利得也要取，兩頭都想兼顧，自然兩頭都顧不好。
再舉例來說，研究技術分析型的投資人，看重的應該是股價短期內上漲的可能性，但偏偏，為了擔心股價萬一漲不動時的風險，乾脆事前退而求其次，瞄準最壞仍要有股利股息可領的標的，因此選擇財報較佳、有利多題材的個股來投資。
結果發現，虧損累累的轉機型公司漲翻天，基本面佳的個股，卻漲個兩三天就逢高獲利回吐，發生利多出盡而慘遭高點套牢的現象。甚至，這些投資人將來的長期殖利率，還遠遜於短期股價下跌損失，可謂得不償失。
費心研究股市，努力鑽研財經新聞，或者用心看一家公司的財報或技術指標，這些都沒有錯，但問題往往出在，投資要得「法」，要掌握正確的方法，才有可能取得良好的投資績效。
投資的方法不對，在基本面上做技術面功夫，或在技術線型上做財報面功課，都會產生格格不入的績效不彰現象。又或者說，長期投資人卻跑去做短線投機，短線投機人又想玩長期投資，中途變換投資方針與方向，自然更是股票投資時的大忌。
做什麼，就該像什麼！想要長期投資績優股者，看重的既然是長期獲利表現，就應該對股價短期起伏，無所介懷。反過來說，既然著眼的是股價短期的漲跌，那麼，基本面虧損的公司，又何損於其會漲的利空出盡氣勢呢？
因為投資不是長期、短期，或基本面、技術面這樣簡單的分野而已，介於這些煢煢大範疇間的交叉組合與排列方式，不知凡幾，所以，更加使得投資人踏入股票投資領域後，會發生眼花撩亂，無所適從之感。
更何況，股市多頭時期、空頭時期，以及多頭初升段、主升段、末升段，和空頭的不同階段，市場會漲的、會跌的類股，又各有其特色，這種時間長軸中的不同特性之類股輪番表現，更加深了投資人想要靠單一之方法獲利的難度。
既然股票投資獲利難有單一、簡易之法，是否代表獲利就不可行呢？當然也非如此悲觀。因時制宜，以自己之不變，隨機應變股市無時無刻之變，可說是投資股市的最高指導原則，也是遊戲規則。
投資人與其花時間勤做功課，不如在勤做功課前，先掌握好股海投資應具備的觀念、態度與準備，才有可能把時間花在刀口上，取得輕鬆、愉快、甚至不勞而獲之投資佳績。
王志鈞
>>>>>
I think it is true. From my visit to most of the investment blog, there are mainly 2 groups, one groups of ppl will do a deep analysis on the company (deep means go until few year performance as well as each of the company activities and management team). And another group are focusing more on the market situation and selecting company based on recent or 1 to 2 year performance as well as share price concerning.
For me, both of it is work for money earning, if the company is extremely good but the situation is bad, you may need more time to get return (you have 地利 but no 天时& 人和). On the other hand, if the situation is correct and the company is good or even fair (we are not going to discuss bad company here because i still cannot accept bad company with good investment return *V*!) you may have 天时，地利，人和 all 3 of them, sure you will get your return faster but you have to pay more attention to the share / market performance.
If we talk about which 1 will give the maximum return? hmm... i would say both of tham can make a maximum return, only depends on how expert you to move with Mr. Market. haha
as per above article:
股市多頭時期、空頭時期，以及多頭初升段、主升段、末升段，和空頭的不同階段，市場會漲的、會跌的類股，又各有其特色，這種時間長軸中的不同特性之類股輪番表現，更加深了投資人想要靠單一之方法獲利的難度。
Try to look for the one that suit to me *V*!
http://blog.udn.com/solon8888/2782723
Buy KFIMA at 0.685
Bot KFIMA today at 0.685.
With latest 4th Q EPS 6.43, KFIMA closed the latest financial year with total EPS 17.7, with the share price of 0.685, the past PE stands at3.87, and the forward PE 6.43 x 4 =25.72; PE = 2.67!! NTA = 1.27, RoE = 13.94.
Let’s look at the latest quarter report which is the Q4.
If we compare present Q with last Q (Q3), what we see is the revenue is decreased from 100M to 76.6M but yet the net profit is increased from 13.85M to 26.22M. This caused by the decrease of the cost of sale for Q4 from 70M to 36.5M. Decrease of 25% in revenue but cost of sale decreased almost X1 (why??), no wander the profit for this quarter still better the Q3 *V*! If compared YTY, the revenue had increased as shows in SAM's blog which is from 309M to 368M. Not bad not bad!! Quarter EPS increased from 3.61 to 6.43 (Q3) and YTY had increased from 11.51 to 17.70. Look back to the history, NTA for KFIMA is increasing from 0.95 (06), 1.05 (07), 1.09 (08) and 1.27 (09). RoE is a bit >10% for year 07 and 08 and 09 is 13.94%.
For balance sheet, in term of Asset, not much change compared to last quarter and also compared to last financial year. 1 point to highlight is the trade receivables for KFIMA is 104M for latest financial year and it is increasing from 2007 ( 52.8M), 2008 (82.89M) and present 104M but the trade payable is quite stable ~5+M each year. hmm... any how, from QTQ, it is improving "a bit" from 109M to 104M compared to past Q. Let see how it will go in future (quite sensitive with these trade receivable and payable because of the MEGAN case. haha)
For Liabilities, both long and short term borrowing had decreased compared to last year. Is this mean KFIMA is not planning to expend or the management only plan to use what they have now to expend the company?? Other then that all are quite stable compared to last financial year. Some others key ratio for KFIMA: Current ratio = 1.26 D/E ratio = 0.07!! (Is it too low?)
For cash flow statement, what i can think of is the inventory is higher compared to last year. What this mean?
From the note, the profit increased mainly due to the contribution from each of the segment where else the increase in revenue compared to last year is mainly due to the contribution from the plantation segment. Hmm, she is not really making profit from the plantation segment huh?! haha. Any how, KFIMA is started to expend the Biochemical oil palm oil. Since 2007 and this should increase her profit.
Look back to the 天时地利人和, This stock was discovered by Neoguga, from SAM's blog and look at what he says:
>>>>>>
Neoguga said...
Just did some research on some companies and from my point of view i think it's a value to buy company to me.
From you Sun Tze Art of War tactic :-
KFIMA
Tien sir : Investment holding company with exposure to plantation. (oil palm)
Dili : Low PE (5.60 from RHB) + improved qe earning of 6.43eps
Ren Her : Volume also increasing but not as powerful as RCECAP.
So sifu, how is my application of your Sun Tzu Art of War? ^^
June 3, 2009 12:28 AM
<<<<<< So?
Lets try another example on KFIMA whether this 天时地利人和 tactic is workable or not in the share market *V*!
I will not holding long on KFIMA because i don't understand why they arenot borrowing money for expend. So once profit seen then will cabut.. haha.. I'm not yet a long term investor, at least not with KFIMA. *V*!!
Btw, thanks to 8year, your books really teach me a lot especially in financial analysis, but i still got a lot to learn as you can see that not much info i can understand from KFIMA financial results. *V*!
Sunday, June 7, 2009
What i learn from <舉債來投資 MEGAN 值得嗎?>
Just finish 1 part of the KLSE.8K E-book which is the intersting part ==> 舉債來投資 MEGAN 值得嗎 ?.
Many ppl who invest in Bursa Malaysia surely know that who is this "MEGAN"!! what a big superstar. MEGAN famous with her super low PE and very good NTA, RoE and EPS, but the big mystery is why her share price keep on dropping while the company is making profit every year?!
It is really a lot of info and analysis done by 8K and others investor where they noted down in the e-book. this hand note really shows a good example of stock with good PE, NTA, and RoE not necessary a good company. For a long term investors and you are only looking at the paper work shows by the company, with this MEGAN case really can hurt you a lot!!!
What i learn from this article are:
1) Other then the financial results provided by the company, we should also sensitive to each of the activities from the management team.
In this case, Most of the share disposition activities by Mr. Yeo's already give a big hint of the thunder storm, but we are still keep on holding the point of low PE (with PE 2 for a counter in a bull market, for me is extremely abnormal!) and high NTA just because we are referring to the history of the market (in this article, the example is GAMUDA where her biggest share holder soled most of her share but GAMUDA share price moving up afterward). Is not to say that not good when we are referring to the pass market history but we should also treat each case differently. Any how, why unker 8K still keep on holding MEGAN is because he strongly believe that it is a chance to maximize the profit with super low PE (~2) in this big bull market (2007).
2) Extreme high trade receivables and extreme low trade payable, not healthy to a company as it may suffer if they have problem to chase back all the receivable. The ratio of reveiveble and payable should be under consideration as well. But regarding what ratio is the best?? i also don know, but i will find it out.
Above is what i gain from the article. For Unker 8K, he is looking for maximum return in bull market, some says that he is nothing different then 投机 because he is not looking serious into some abnormal activities of the company，but he explain that he is holding strong on MEGAN is because of her low PE and high RoE, it is not simply holding because of low prices in bull market. Btw, he also mention that he is able to take the risk even a lot of signal showing that there are something happen at behind for MEGAN, (such as extream low PE but with continuous good operation performance from 2004 until 2007; abnormal share trading by management / main share holder; abnormal in trade receivables and trade payable ratio).
Well, i would says that this is 8K's investment method, he have his own reason to keep on holding MEGAN, that's why this become a hot discussion in the Cari forum in 2006 and 2007. For me, 8K is applying the thinking against the major population (反向思考）for his stock pick, that is also why he still holding MEGAN when most of the people is having bad feeling with MEGAN. maybe that is also the reason why MEGAN share price is at low all the time because many people looking at MEGAN's week point. Any how, if MEGAN is reporting the real situation of the company with good profit and low PE, by long term holding it, the return will be very very huge! but really we can find such a company that will give extremely low PE with very good RoE, NTA and EPS in a super bull market??
Many ppl who invest in Bursa Malaysia surely know that who is this "MEGAN"!! what a big superstar. MEGAN famous with her super low PE and very good NTA, RoE and EPS, but the big mystery is why her share price keep on dropping while the company is making profit every year?!
It is really a lot of info and analysis done by 8K and others investor where they noted down in the e-book. this hand note really shows a good example of stock with good PE, NTA, and RoE not necessary a good company. For a long term investors and you are only looking at the paper work shows by the company, with this MEGAN case really can hurt you a lot!!!
What i learn from this article are:
1) Other then the financial results provided by the company, we should also sensitive to each of the activities from the management team.
In this case, Most of the share disposition activities by Mr. Yeo's already give a big hint of the thunder storm, but we are still keep on holding the point of low PE (with PE 2 for a counter in a bull market, for me is extremely abnormal!) and high NTA just because we are referring to the history of the market (in this article, the example is GAMUDA where her biggest share holder soled most of her share but GAMUDA share price moving up afterward). Is not to say that not good when we are referring to the pass market history but we should also treat each case differently. Any how, why unker 8K still keep on holding MEGAN is because he strongly believe that it is a chance to maximize the profit with super low PE (~2) in this big bull market (2007).
2) Extreme high trade receivables and extreme low trade payable, not healthy to a company as it may suffer if they have problem to chase back all the receivable. The ratio of reveiveble and payable should be under consideration as well. But regarding what ratio is the best?? i also don know, but i will find it out.
Above is what i gain from the article. For Unker 8K, he is looking for maximum return in bull market, some says that he is nothing different then 投机 because he is not looking serious into some abnormal activities of the company，but he explain that he is holding strong on MEGAN is because of her low PE and high RoE, it is not simply holding because of low prices in bull market. Btw, he also mention that he is able to take the risk even a lot of signal showing that there are something happen at behind for MEGAN, (such as extream low PE but with continuous good operation performance from 2004 until 2007; abnormal share trading by management / main share holder; abnormal in trade receivables and trade payable ratio).
Well, i would says that this is 8K's investment method, he have his own reason to keep on holding MEGAN, that's why this become a hot discussion in the Cari forum in 2006 and 2007. For me, 8K is applying the thinking against the major population (反向思考）for his stock pick, that is also why he still holding MEGAN when most of the people is having bad feeling with MEGAN. maybe that is also the reason why MEGAN share price is at low all the time because many people looking at MEGAN's week point. Any how, if MEGAN is reporting the real situation of the company with good profit and low PE, by long term holding it, the return will be very very huge! but really we can find such a company that will give extremely low PE with very good RoE, NTA and EPS in a super bull market??
Friday, June 5, 2009
soled all Annjoo-wb at 0.51
Today soled all my annjoo-wb at 0.51.. huh... how lucky am i, i had been mentally suffered by it for 3 weeks d. why?? because she is out-money!! premium ~50% when i buy. Now relax la, don't care any more even she keep on shooting up to the moon.. wakaka, you may say that i 卖错价钱就自我安慰，to be honest, i'm glad that i had soled out annjoo-wb this high risk warrant based on my原则(which i already violated at the 1st place when i buy in annjoo-wb) ^V^!
Why i buy it since it is high risk??
>> Two word ==> 想投机，贪心!! (1st wrong!!)
Why i didn't cut loss and disposed it after i regret??
>> Expired date at 2013, 4 more years to go, may still got chance to climb back. (you see!! i'm gambling!!! 2nd wrong!!)
Why i disposed at 0.51 and didn't wait for a bit since the volumn is comming??
>> Because i don't want to continue my gambling intension!! so that i'm not doing 3 mistake in one trading (i already have 2.. haha)
Am i doing the rite decision to dispose all at 0.51?? For me it is damn rite!!
When you facing this situation, you may continue to hold and by chance and luck, you "maybe" can sell at highest price. but i'm not going this way, i have to correct myself by not involve in this kind of trading!! what a horrible 3 weeks when holding Annjoo-wb.. haha
Why i buy it since it is high risk??
>> Two word ==> 想投机，贪心!! (1st wrong!!)
Why i didn't cut loss and disposed it after i regret??
>> Expired date at 2013, 4 more years to go, may still got chance to climb back. (you see!! i'm gambling!!! 2nd wrong!!)
Why i disposed at 0.51 and didn't wait for a bit since the volumn is comming??
>> Because i don't want to continue my gambling intension!! so that i'm not doing 3 mistake in one trading (i already have 2.. haha)
Am i doing the rite decision to dispose all at 0.51?? For me it is damn rite!!
When you facing this situation, you may continue to hold and by chance and luck, you "maybe" can sell at highest price. but i'm not going this way, i have to correct myself by not involve in this kind of trading!! what a horrible 3 weeks when holding Annjoo-wb.. haha
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Buy PANTECH at 0.78
As per previous post, bot PANTECH at 0.78 for 80 lots
EPS = 15.94 sen, convert to PE ~5, NTA = RM2.64
Latest Financial report:
Current ratio = 2.21, is improving ~4% yearly since 2006
RoE = 25.83, consider high if compare within the industry, so as RoA & RoC (info from The Star and BusinessWeek)
Debt to Cap % = 0.37, is <0.5 and is improving compare to 2007
Dividend Yield = 2.56%
Solid huh?! lately purchased a land at Pasir Gudang JB for business expend, o.k. la, got expend means got forcas for future earning ma ^V^ haha.
Interms of 天时，地利，人和, i already have the 天时 and 地利 (O & G theam for this year and solid FA)！！人和 (volumn + news & dividend announcement) is comming soon!! haha..
To be honest, stock pick by SAM in the industry is really "chun" as yesterday i try to look for others under perform O & G counter, as you know, only left PANTECH, and PENERGY. Another gam PETRA is too high for me and DAYANG still new are not my cup of tea lol..
Sum: I buy PANECH because she meet the criteria of 天时，地利，人和!!
Monday, June 1, 2009
My think of O & G stock
Disposed all LEADER at 0.67, plan to switch to O & G stock since Genting SP is not coming down to SGD 0.6+, haha, funny thing is LEADER shot up to 0.72 after i dispose it. Hmm.. nvm la, is your money then is yours, if it is not yours, then i won come even you wait.
Ok, today i'm trying to look for ONG counter that still worth to buy, as you see in the attachment, most of the ONG stock PE >10, below 10 we have EPIC, PETRA, PENERGY, DELEUM, SAPCRES, PANTECH, SUMATEC and DAYANG. So, this is it. which 1 can be keep ler??
For SAPCRES, SUMATEC & DAYANG, price almost hit the year high d. so i say out!
The rest is EPIC, PETRA, PENERGY, DELEUM & PANTECH, which 1 is the best?
DELEUM currently no volumn after the 2nd shot up from 1.4+ to 1.6+ last week, temperary will not considered.
PETRA start to move today, but i have limited capital, sien :(
EPIC volumn already up since last Friday and today have not much to go. the price also increased for the 2nd round since 11 May
I left PENERGY and PANTECH,
PENERGY having low volumn resently and haven't move up since all ONG already move for 2nd round, low volumn with PE ~8.6, year high ~2.4, still have ~29% room to move.
PANTECH pula, volumn start to pick up, already rised for 2nd round, low PE ~5, year high 0.9, still have 16% room to move.
Ah!! which 1 to choose??
As per 天时，地利，人和, both having same 天时&地利 ( PANTECH slidely better with PE ~5 oni) but for 人和, we should consider PENERGY which is not yet pass her 2nd raise but with low volumn or PANTECH which is already done the 2nd rise but with volumn pick up??
Or make it simple! for PENERGY, although there are room for moving up but don know when (Coz no volumn). For PANTECH, volumn up means it will move soon even with oni 16% room (this is base on year high price), some more PE lower at ~5 nia.
hmm.. will bot PANTECH tomorrow ^V^!
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