FITTERS 3rd Q_13 result, not bad ^_^!

FITTERS 3rd quarter result looks good, revenue and profit increased, minimal short term debt can cash rich. However, the interesting part is there are no cash generated from operation??? looks suspicious!

Segment result shows that the major gain in profit and revenue is mainly contribute by property development, others segment remain stable (fire service & R/WTE). Nothing much to highlight, the suspicious part remain at the -ve cash generated from operation, to dig out more from forum later.

我的第二个产业购买计划_P2

好滴，我看上了D'Pristine@Medini.

六月初，Iskandar Medini基本上已经有几栋公寓在卖了，好比Paradiso Nouva ， the meridin@medini 。。。。为什么D'Pristine? 先来看看地点，Medini的中心是在青线里，这包括Legoland, Shopping mall及医疗中心，青线外围就是规划的residencial area, D'Pristini就是那星星，正正在medini中心，走路就可以到那些商业/医疗中心，买它是因为方便，而且我相信未来轻快铁将会建在Legoland附近。在这青线范围里只有两栋SOFO/Condo,一个是新加坡的高级公寓（就在Urban Wellness前面）另一个就是D;Pristine了，靠近shoppingmall，吃喝交通都方便，重要的是租客可以target那些在Medini中心工作的人。

D'pristine的发展商是MCT Group（http://www.mct.com.my/），这是他们在JB的第一个projects,其实他们在KL有蛮多的Projects，就像Putrajaya SkyPark，从他的project来看，像是一个蛮有经验于发展Mix property的发展商。对了，D'pristine是好像KSL Citymall般，楼下是shoping,楼上是SOFO/SOHO，左边是office tower.所以是个commercial property.

我的上限是价钱必须在600k以下的两房式，楼层不可以在17楼以上，窗口望出去没有高楼阻挡视线，白天不会被太阳晒到，不靠近电梯及垃圾房 :) 最后我是真的买到这样的单位哦，个人觉得如果要投资房产，首先你必须问自己，如果我买了这个unit是给自己住的，那个环境是我想要的吗？如果连屋主自己也住不下，你如何可以expect租客会住的好，租金怎么可以开得高呢？

Bot In SUNWAY & BUMITAMA

There goes another week :) well, 2 actions this week, as per previous post, i had selected property counter & CPO counter that i want :), so they are SUNWAY and BUMITAMA.

Bot SUNWAY @2.74 on Tuesday as below:

 

 

So why SUNWAY?? well, Q2 EPS is @20cent, so lets say i chop 25% for annum EPS ended @30cent, the PE is @ 9.1, it is low as compare to other competitor such as MAHSING, SPSETIA, UEM, most of them is at PE ranging from 12-22. so taking average PE of 15 30cent x 15 = $4.5!! wow, more then 60% return! another benefit is the Q2 NTA is @$2.9! premium of about -6%, tu dia! For her price, it was traded @ 75% lower from 52Wk top already, so instead of waiting it to go to 52Wk low, i should grab my self some of it.

The only concern i have over SUNWAY is the DEBT. the debt ratio is ~0.53 while the DTE ratio is 1.23 which is higher across the sector. well, it had issue a 1:3 right issue back in August and had brought down the gearing from 0.53 to about 0.3. phew.. And with the projects on hand especially at Iskandar, Singapore and China, looks like the future is there, just the metter of time. The recent share price dip is likely due to gov activities to control the property price, but in overall, SUNWAY financial is still running good as what i can see. Today it was closed @ 2.66. I'm planning to enter another 40 lots if the price fall further more, lets see :)

As of CPO counter, i had bot in BUMITAMA, this guy was listed on SGX only on April 2012, consider a newbie for SGX, Singapore have only a few of pure CPO player and most of them are having land in Indonesia, with the considering of cheaper labor fee, that makes me enter SGX CPO counter instead of KLSE. i had bot in 50 lots @S$1. will post in more detail on this stock when i have time.

Clear all by YTLPOWR-WB, What Next?

Yeah! Finally Dispo all my YTLPOWR-WB with average return of ~57%. not bad not bad. last sold on Friday @ 0.72, reaching my TP liao, finished all my YTLPOWR-WB :)

 

With that says, i have zero holding of warrent for now :) so according to the plan i will start to buy in mother stock. current cash vs share ratio is 60:40, stock on hand left UMWOG and FITTERS, FITTERS is taken up almost 70% of the share value while UMWOG is will small quantity. too high for me to chase now @ 3.50.

I'm planning to get into CPO/property conter in next week, fund alocation will be another 10-20% from my capital, so look like i can only select either one, CPO / Property :( CPO price is moving up due to bad weather by end of the year, property stock was on hard sale last few weeks due to the 2014 budget anouncement. by looking at the situation, i would expect the return from property stock will be faster then CPO as property stock running low is due to penic sale. CPO price had been running low since end of 2012, thus, stock price is more or less stable at low, buy in now might need to hold for awhile and the risk is again the weather impact. while for property counters, the concern is the sale impact in coming few quarters. So in summary, CPO counter good for mid to long term hold while property counters is good for counter attack until March 2014 before the new rule really turned on.

Lets look at CPO counters. the impact from reacent HaiYen case as well as current raining season, the CPO price is looking likely to recover a bit, while the demand of CPO from China and India is also looking to be increased. it is really a good time now for long term hold. well, which is the best counter to hold? I'm looking at those CPO listed in SGX and KLSE as well. lets see which one is more attractive :).

As of Property counter, Sunway, UEM, MAHSING, TAMBUN?? :) lets see see

我的第二个产业购买计划_P1

我的第二个产业购买计划告一段落啦！从选地点，到抽签，选Unit，找loan，及签SPA，竟然用了整整五到六个月。。。

自从分析了一下柔佛的房地产，本来已经放弃买房产的计划了，但是想了一想，觉得置产还是要做的，一直把钱放在股票也不是办法，重点是如何在柔佛找到一个价钱合理，又要理想地点的产业呢？？今天就来分享一下我所选的这一个产业。。

看偏了柔佛，就是那几个地方而已，Mount Austin, Ulu Tiram, Johor Town, Bukit Indah, Danga Bay, Kempas, Plentong, Senai, 及Nusa Jaya. 其实更远的还有Pasir Gudang, 及 Masai.了解了一下地点，其实选择不多。首先我是买来投资的，要不就出租，要不就卖掉，所以一定要选择happening的地点，当然，价钱是下一个考量。有了这个目标，地点基本上已经可以锁定在Maunt Austin, Johor Town, Bukit Indah, Danga Bay,Pelentong,Kempas,及NusaJaya. 这些都是新加坡及外国人都比较方便到达的地方。再来，如果要容易租又容易卖的，非得是公寓不可，Kempas就可以cancel了，Mount Austin如果你有发现到的话，这里至少有一个半现成的公寓，还有五栋在赶工的，这里除了Sunway Collage及医院以外，应该没什么出租的Market了，再说，租金并不高，一个月大概RM800-RM1000吧，供过于求。

Johor Town地点漂亮，但是现在已经在~RM900-1000psf了，小的没钱，况且我并不了解town area的租屋需求及rental rate，还是算了吧。Danga bay,就只有那间Country Garden有看头，但是那个project target有接近10000unit，而且30%的unit 会以买一送一的方式给在中国上海买高级住宅区的客户（under同一个发展商），也就是说30%的unit几乎肯定是等着出租或卖掉的，在加上10000户的高密度公寓，我觉得有一定的投资风险。Pelantong的话so far我觉得交通不方便，一直塞车，可能以后会好转吧。这样一来，我只有剩下Bukit Indah及Nusa Jaya了。

以Bukit Indah 来说，的确是个好地方SP Setia的公寓已经卖完入住了，另外还有Setia ECO Garden,及在Sutera area的 The Seed，这一带都是在target每天来回新加坡工作的人，那么他们因该买得起，何必租呢？我是说出租的Market没那么大，况且我觉得RM7++psf在Bukit Indah好像贵了点 :) 所以最后我的地点锁定在NusaJaya Iskandar 了。。

Iskandar的发展蓝图看上去是蛮全面的，目的是打造金融，教育，医药，工业及消费娱乐within一个地区。我看到的是专业人士及外国aspect的租约。如果只看看现在的Ledang Height 及那一栋在Nusa Jaya唯一的公寓，现在的公寓租金是~RM3000-4000一个月，Landed是~RM5000-7000，客户几乎都是外国人及工厂老板。当然他们也可以选择住在HorizonHill及Bukit Indah，但是当Iskandar真的释放value的时候，就会像新加坡的OchardRoad 般，住满了一堆外国人及有钱人（在发白日梦:~])。问题是能不能成功？？没人懂。不过以现在的情况来看，淡马锡也已经插了一脚，这对我来说是添了一些些的confidences. :)

那么，在Iskandar有那么多的projects，而且价钱也不便宜，那该如何买呢？过几天我再来写写我选的这间公寓。

SWAP to UMWOG

Buy in 30 lots of UMWOG @ 3.14, this is swap from all my YTL @ 1.64. reason doing SWAP is UMWOG unlikely to drop below my TP less then RM3, thus to avoid running chicken and for water temperature testing, i had swap my capital from YTL to UMWOG, no additional fund alocated for it as of now. so why YTL? i'm almost jetst getting back by broker commision. YTL is currently @ PE 12, if we target PE @ 15-18, the most return i can get is around 10-20%. with that says, swaping to UMWOG is giving me more chance to hitting return ~30%. Just for this reason.

Also i had placed a sell on my remaining YTLPOWR-WB @ 0.725, see how it goes tomorrow :)

Genting SP Heart Broken La, SWAP SWAP SWAP.

I had disposed all my Genting SP last week. It is enough for me, i had been keeping this stock since early 2012 until now, and it is really funny that by the time when i buy in, the PE is ~18 with the price of S$1.52, but today, it is at S$1.475 and the PE is way high at 28!! What is happening? One thing i observes along this ~2years period, Genting SP had never perform any batter either in gambling or its entertainment theme park.

One of the big challenge for Genting is MBS, well, in a small country like Singapore and there are 2 casino is really big matter! when i buy in genting SP, I'm expecting a tough competition here and standing a chance of 50-50 for this 2 casinos, but with what i see in pass 2 years, genting had been losing to MBS at almost every FY regardless of the wining rate and the VIP occupy rate. Well, i do expose my self to both of the casino recently and the feeling i have is they are on different standard where MBS is giving me more like world class casino while GSP is like low class casino in terms of the game and the service, no wander the VIP all goes to MBS... haha.

Back to the theme park portion, well, it have the Marine park opened recently, however, the return of this section is way slow to cover the expansion, i think that is why the profit of the company is like fully rely on the gambling game. So if GSP cannot do well on casino, it will keep at this situation at all the time. The fair value for GSP was expect to be ~SGD1 only with latest EPS. Talk about the future, unless GSP change the way they run the casino, else the future is not so promising, personally, i would think that they need to keep the VIP from graping away by MBS and to do this, they need to improve the service and the culture of the casino, lets compare the casino in Vegas and Macau, if you put this 2 in Singapore, which one do you think the foreigner will prefer to spend their money?? :)

The lesson learned from Genting SP is never do any forecasting based on assume (i assume the company will be getting batter with new facility opened such as Marine park but i over look the business culture of GSP and the huge competition of gambling industry in Singapore, only realize it after i visit the MBS and GSP by my self), this lesson cost me ~1.4k SGD.... very ex... haha

For the mean time i had bot in 90lots of SabanaREIT @ S$1.095. I'm looking at the high DY for this company. Since i had allocated some capital in SGX as well, I'm planning to invest on high DY or stable counter on SGX while remain active in KLSE. few reasons is: 1) SGD exchange rate is all ways stand high and i would like to take this advantage to keep some high DY stock from SGX. 2) I do not have deep analysis on SGX counters, so it is a bit risky for me to shot on SGX counter. with this, swapping my fund from SGP to REIT stock will be my plan in next few months/yrs for SGX game plan.

Back to Sabana, why Sabana? Below is the data i capture from "SGX REIT DATA" with latest QE data, filtered by only REIT for industrial.

Among all the REIT, I'm looking at higher DY,with low PTB. gearing is subjected to me as long as it is manageable. Sabana REIT just reported 100% occupied on all it portfolio and it is a good news here. On top of this, the DY is the highest among all other industrial REIT in SG. PTB is slightly above 1 (@1.03) but with the share price close to 52Wk low and PE below 10. SolidBuild REIT is new IPO and its under my monitor as well, the good thing of SBREIT is there are ~42% of her portfolio is Biz Park which is having more stable income and lower risk. :)

 REIT in Singapore might be more attractive to me as compare to REIT in Malaysia due to the land value in Singapore. On top of that, i prefer industrial REIT in Singapore due to the globally and the Singapore government strategic. the risk is fairly low as compare to Malaysia industrial REIT. The only thing that might not so good for Singapore REIT is the gearing is high, which mean they need to maintain higher occupy rate so that the DEBT can be paid on-time.

Enter YTL... Just give me a reason just a little bit... ^_^

 

 

Late post, enter a little bit of YTL Corp last week @1.61. this is a recormended counter by other blogger, but by the time i'm ready to enter (review, velidate, and fund alocation), it had increased ~7% from the proposing enter price from the blog, obviously the one who make call is entering at the right time while i'm enter at so call bit late after rebounce from 52 week low. :)

YTL PE are at ~11 based on latest quarter EPS calculation at the time i enter, this is violating my normal counter picking for PE below 10, so the reason for me to enter is blue chip and 52week low share price. From the point i enter, it had bounced 7% from bottom, well, it should be a safe place from my point of view, why? i'm looking at YTL at PE 15 which translate to ~RM2 price, this is ~25% return and i think 15 PE is fare for YTL. My cash ratio to YTL is also pretty low, just to get some pocket money from it :)

Ok, some other counter that i'm eyeing and doing some homework, they are SUNREIT and UMWOG.

SUNREIT is not those kind of stock that you can get return from the share price in short period but rather the DIV, this counter have DIV yield ~6%, well, not the best amoung other company in this sector but if you look at the property under this company, they are mainly shopping mall, the rental are relatively more stable. so i'm looking at a right timeing to enter.

UMWOG is an IPO counter on 1/11. well well, the ONG counter always come with higher price, since it was just launched, i will wait for couple of week to see the situation after market is stable. TP below RM3.. :)