牛市熊市三步曲, My Final Portfolio Optimization

 Captured from 牛市熊市三步曲.
http://money.softbath.net/stock/articles/bear-bull.htm

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牛市第二期
　　市場中開始受利好消息刺激，部份股票股價開始慢慢持續或反覆向上，投資者也漸漸開始對經濟前境有所期待，雖然開始時市場成交沒有明顯的熱鬧，但伴隨各大公司公佈的業績轉好令投資者回復信心而開始入市慢慢變得熱鬧，對後市更開始樂觀。

牛市第三期
　　到達這個時期，經濟環境已開始起飛，投資市場也到達非常熱鬧的階段，就好像2006年香港股票市場般幾乎全民階股、新股必賺般熱鬧雀躍，到這時候，市場也會對各種消息變得非常敏感或，一點消息也會造成炒作活動，部份非專業投資者更可能會跟隨各種消息而盲目追捧參與投資炒作活動令市場波動，值得注意是經濟環境將由好漸漸轉壞時由於不易察覺可能對投資者做成損失。

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熊市第一期
　　熊市的開始往往在牛市第三期經濟最熱鬧的期間默默開始，在牛市第三期間，各種經濟指數和部份股票股價可能都已沖跛新高，各投資者也沉迷在賺錢的貪念中，雖然市場看來仍然一片熱鬧，但已存在過熱的危險性，熊市初來臨時一般並不明顯，就是因為並不明顯的關係，市場中的炒作仍然活躍，只是開始有少許反幅波動，能在這時放出手上股票還是可以有利可圖，當部份投資者已察覺熊市來到時，開始相斷沽出股票，市場將一步一步下跌，如投資者已明顯地察覺熊市己來到而加快沽出手中股票，更可能做成恐慌性拋售，這一擊的力量可令市場迅速大幅下跌而造成嚴重損失，而且事前不易發覺。

A few activities i had made in last few days to fine tune my portfolio based on current status (牛市第三期）. Did realize that in pass 1 month or 2, a lot of cash rich counter had move up in spike says 20 - 50%, this told me that the last phase of bull market is almost here, once all these cash rich counters had raised, the final group of penny lousy counter will be the last push for the bull. I really don't like to put a lot of capital in the penny lousy stock, so i have to catch up with the last round of raise of cash rich company, once take profit from there then i will start to back off liao!! this is my target, help me to achieve it and not been over taken by the greedy inside me :P

Alright, the changes that i had made in pass 1 week is to focus on shifted some of my counter to those under estimate counter although it is very hard to find one today. firstly i have to SWAP with my current counter, FIAMMA and LATITUD had been taken off from my portfolio with 2 reasons:

1. Both had came down 3% (my stop loss point) from my enter price, so to follow rules, i will need to sale it. (FIAMMA - enter 2.12, now 2.07, LATITUD - enter 3.09, now 2.99).

2. Lesser and lesser momentum to move up after 1 round of increase in share price. Its unlike UliCorp, this 2 counter seems to have a hard time to move up further and if look at the future on Latitud, the shutdown in Vietnam will definitely impact her revenue for upcoming quarter, thus, before it can recover, the phase 3 bull should be passed. where else for FIAMMA, the reason i bot in is his stable business (home use electric equit and property), but looking at the market, targeting for stable business just seem not right for me if i want to increase my gain in stock market now.

In fact, both are good counters , just i decided to invest together with the Mr market. By selling of this 2 counters, i swap to MARCO and WEIDA.

Why MARCO?

1. Cash rich "2013年财报注 明公司拥有4千1百50万的现金"
2. High DY.
3. The Business: do you use Casio product??
4. The share price is not really moving yet
5. PE ~12. not so attractive but still fair.
6. Top 30 share holders holds about 54% of total share.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/55457.jsp

Why WEIDA?

1. Cash rich company after sold off the plantation business
2. The share price is not really moving yet
3. low PE and under value.

A lot of discussion on this counter at I3investors can have a look on this guys.
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/nb/7111.jsp

below is the latest portfolio with the % of my capital:

Local:
18% WEIDA @ 1.86 (cash rich, super under value and not yet move at the day i buy)
10% MACRO @ 0.17 (cash rich, not yet move with high DY)
15% MUDAJAYA @ 2.58 (close to 25 week low, profit coming on it way)
19% SUPERMX @ 2.17 (close to 52 wk low, recovered from production issue, increase profit)

Foreign:
24% CHINAPOWR @ 2.9 HKD (Blue Chip, main power supply in China)

will the 4 local counter to be the last piece of 遗珠? lets see. From now on, i will stop any buy in activities for other counter, the only thing that i might do is to swap my CHINAPOWER/MARCO to WEIDA, out of these counter WEIDA, might be the safest bet :), bottom line! make profit! but how to decide when to run?? hahahaha... there will be some way to know that and i will try to provide it in this round of market.

My Stock Investment Review for 2014 1st Half (P2)

Alright! what happen to IOIPG and Sunway?? i was entering Sunway on Nov 2013 and IOIPG on Feb 2014 after it IPO.


For Sunway, i had been buying it due to super low PE and price dip when gov announced the cancellation of DBS scheme. After holding for 8 months i decided to fully dispose it from my profile with 1 time dividend paid to me as well. Why??

 
SUNWAY had hit $2.23 once and trended down for the pass 1 month, what i see here is the impact of not enough volume momentum and the upcoming GST impact to propety sector is an unknown for SUNWAY, although in general, it should be able to hold the resistance of all this impact. my original TP for SUNWAY is $2.40, but as what i mention above, i would rather swap my capital to other counter which might have clearer view for next 1-2 years. In short term, it should be benifit by the upcoming hospital project, Inskandar project (launching soon) and the new theme park near Subang Jaya. Long term, it should be positive, but i'm not expecting something like >50% return on this counter, what ia greddy man :)

For IOIPG, i bot in this counter after 1 month of her IPO when her share price drop from high of $3.5 to $2.5. The reason i invest on this counter is the capital size and the reputation, however, i was over look by her PE @ $2.75 which is around 11. IOIPG having quite a number of property investment overseas, by looking at the property market in other country, it expose additional risk for IOIPG with the exchange rate and the uncertainty. Local project wise, it have some land @ JB and KL, but i do not see any selling point of IOIP property as compare to others. i decided to dispo it @ lower price after if come down @ high at hitting my 3% cut loss limit, why 3% for IOIPG? it is simple, the future is uncertain for property sector and IOIPG also exposing herself with the risk of overseas investment, with PE >11, i don’t think there will be high flying performance in near future for IOIPG. What i joke in my investment history, another example of taking action without proper thinking :).

Now, let’s talk about my investment strategy for 2nd half of 2014. It is simple:

1. Target to have 4-5 counters holding
2. Avoid property sector,
3. Looking for dark horse
4. Cash vs stock ratio of 20:80.

Buy and selling plan:


1. 10% for high potential counter and 3% for high risk high return counter.
2. Capital invested in a single counter should be more than 20% of my capital.
3. Buy in stage with additional entrance in every 3% price increase (until hit the 20% limit).
4. Start selling the counter when 10 days average price line start to turn down with no volume support.
5. Counter with PE more than 10, max PE = 12.


Now, i have ULICORP, LATITUD, FIAMMA, MUDAJAYA from KLSE.

ULI - Bot in early this year when PE = 7 at price of $1.09. This post is a bit late and now it is running at $1.66 on Friday, it is closed to double up d and the good thing is i learn from UMWOG and TITIJAYA that not to cut gain, so i still holding it, it is currently the 2nd largest counter in my profile. FA for ULI no needs to mention, it is solid, ULI involved in Investment, Cable support systems, and Electrical lighting and fittings, a pretty stable business. Since the increase in the price is likely due to goreng, so i will continue to hold it or start to sell in stage when: 1. No big volume >9mil in next 2 weeks, 10 days average price start to turn downward, PE between 15 - 18.

MUDAJAYA - I just started to collect this counter @ 2.51 with PE around 8, eyeing at her India power plant project. The share price still not moving a lot, so i will use this counter to try out my "3% enter once" strategy on this stock, see how it goes. Long term wise, it had committed with 75 mil profit per annual from the India projects, in short, i do not see any bad things on this counter unless her project delay again. Things to take note also on her profit earning on recent 2 quarters, it is low and i will need to find out why.

FIAMMA - I had complete my "3% enter once" on this counter with average price of $2.13 with PE of 8.+. FIAMMA is selling the home used electricity equipment and now it starts to enter the property market, while the key i chose this counter is the stable business of house use electric equip but with the property sector in the counter, i have no way but need to be more sensitive to any property related news in Malaysia. it is a highly recommended stop by 糊涂 and you can take a look on his comprehensive analysis on this counter on his blog page.

LATITUD - Furniture manufacturer, bot in this counter @ average price of $3.09, PE more then 10. i came to know this counter during the 越南排华事件, There is a lot of detail review and FA result comments of this counter in I3investor page. In short, this is a 龙头股, 3rd Q is a traditional low performance time for furniture sector but she is still performing, part of it is because of the privatize of her sub company, but excluding that, this is also an earning quarter and its better than last year. The overall business performance is also better then competitor. This counter should be performing soon after Vietnam case. However, this is a buy based on follow. Thus, I’m getting a 8% capital on it only, although i quite confident on its performance.