A Review on Asian Pay Television Trust

APPTV just announced their latest quarter report, such a disapointed result. Infact, it is not totally unexpected, this is what capture from the latest Q-report end 30 Jun 2018:

In constant Taiwan dollars (“NT$”), revenue down 4.1% for the quarter and 4.9% for the half-year as foreign exchange contributed 2.5% negative variance for the quarter and 1.8% for the half-year

• Basic Cable TV: Down 4.6% for the quarter and 5.6% for the half-year in constant NT$ terms mainly due to lower subscription revenue, driven by marginally lower number of subscribers and ARPU compared to the pcp, and lower revenue generated from channel leasing partially offset by higher airtime advertising sales.
• Premium Digital Cable TV: Down 10.4% for the quarter and 9.2% for the half-year in constant NT$ terms. Generated predominantly from TBC’s average Premium digital cable TV RGUs each contributing an ARPU of NT$133 per month during the quarter for Premium digital cable TV packages, bundled DVR or DVR-only services.
• Broadband: Up marginally for the quarter and remained broadly unchanged for the half-year in constant NT$ terms. Generated predominantly from TBC’s average Broadband RGUs each contributing an ARPU of NT$439 per month during the quarter for high-speed Broadband services.

Total operating expenses: Lower operating expenses, mainly due to lower broadcast and production costs, staff costs and other operating expenses.

Below table tell a better story:

In short, the game still on with increase RGUs in Premium digital cable TV but hidden rock shows ARPU for both of the so call potential savior for APTV is not making and real income (claim to be due to spending for promotions and discounted bundled packages that were offered to generate new RGUs and to retain existing RGUs.

A sad part from the report is below highlighted statment were spotted in the Outlook statement:

==> To support some of the above-mentioned initiatives, the Board of directors is of the view that the distribution per unit in 2019 is likely to be lowered.

My intepretations:
1. The situation is bad, management have no confident to recover the weak performance.
2. DPU lower always not a good thing for me.

A side thought: Do youconfident that APTv can recover the situations by cutting the DPU and with above plan? It all went back to the business that APTv is doing. With that says, i had decided to cut loss at this point, sold off all i have @ 0.40 and take the loss of ~26%. A simple reason, APTv have no longer meet my needs as the future DPU is not secure, so just cut and move on.

I had swap to some Malaysia construction counter. update in next blogging. 

My Stock Investment Review for 2014 1st Half (P1)

Had been away for half a year... now here is the check point for pass 6 months of my progress, below is the profile from Dec 2013 - June 2014.

 

To date, some good profit for 2014, main things happen on my profile are Disposing some of the key stock like Fitters to Feb 2014 after shot up ~17% and SWAP to UMWOG and TITIJAYA.

 

Some lesson learn here, for UMWOG and TITIJAYA, they are IPO when i brought it and seems like it had been disposed too early. currently both are running at $4.22 and  $2.49 each any my previous enter and exit price are $3.16/$3.87 for UMWOG and $1.49/$1.79 for TITIJAYA. this had translate to about 10% and 48% less profit if i hold until today. the lesson learn is don't simply let go some potential counter, but how i know will it continue to go up or will drop back to my buying price? Recently, i found to known an investment book and the trick is: "cut loss don't cut gain", on the upcoming counter, my cut loss point was set at 2 level, which is -3% and -10%, why there are two standard? well, it is depends on which counter i invested and the potential of the counter. And how i decided to start taking profit? i will based on 2-3 weeks price vs Vol movement to decide, which mean whenever the counter is having hard time to move up and the vol continue to see low, also not expect any new catalyst from market, then i will start to sell in stage. this will be my investment strategy for the 2nd half of the year ! yeah!

 

Next is the item in red which is RSAWIT, ICAP, and IGBREIT. this 3 is really a fail for me in year 2014, it is purely follow wind kind of buying, although the capital that i put inside was not as huge as others, but it is a loss!

 

I’m buying RSAWIT in the early of the year when we are talking about the kelapa sawit price will be the theme for 2014. why RSAWIT and not THPlant, CEPAT and others? Well, i just simply chose one and bot in just to hope to catch up the 投机　(for me). so this is the result, when i found another good counter, i have no enough capital to invest but to cut loss on 投机股..　悲剧啊..even look at today, RSAWIT are just not performing, i believe it is mainly due to the young trees on this company that is not making the good profit on it as compare to other plantation counter, maybe this is not her year, but who knows what will happen in few years later?

ICAP and IGBREIT is a good counter, but again, i'm selling it to SWAP to other counter and the enter price for ICAP is a bit higher even that she is priced below her NTA for an investment company. This counter that applied 价值投资 on her invested target; ideally, this is an investment company that is using the same investment style like Berkshire Hathaway^.  but the different is the share price is always below its NTA -40%, and she do not give any dividend until 2014, i think the CEO cannot tahan already but to give the very first dividend to share holder else he will start to loss the main pool of investor, dude 50% in 5 years! how many investor in Malaysia can hold for so long just for 50% and without dividend??!! In summary, this is a good counter but not serves the needs of Asian market, face the reality man, we are only human! hahaha. 

ICAP (2009 - 2014)

 

IGBREIT, again, i have not holding power...... it is now at $1.22, with ~4% gain from my enter price if i hold it until now. This is a good example of investing with not having a clear investment strategy. at today’s market, it kind of like the 3rd phase of bull market and i should be targeting some under value stock to catch up the last train before the bull market is here, IGBREIT definitely not in the list as this is more towards conservative investment, so once i realize that IGBREIT is not my cup of tea, I’m cutting it directly and pay a $50 study fee... damn! it is equal to a set of sushi!

Next, I’m going to talk about IOIPG and SUNWAY, also talk about my latest holding including SG stock... :) 

Genting SP Heart Broken La, SWAP SWAP SWAP.

I had disposed all my Genting SP last week. It is enough for me, i had been keeping this stock since early 2012 until now, and it is really funny that by the time when i buy in, the PE is ~18 with the price of S$1.52, but today, it is at S$1.475 and the PE is way high at 28!! What is happening? One thing i observes along this ~2years period, Genting SP had never perform any batter either in gambling or its entertainment theme park.

One of the big challenge for Genting is MBS, well, in a small country like Singapore and there are 2 casino is really big matter! when i buy in genting SP, I'm expecting a tough competition here and standing a chance of 50-50 for this 2 casinos, but with what i see in pass 2 years, genting had been losing to MBS at almost every FY regardless of the wining rate and the VIP occupy rate. Well, i do expose my self to both of the casino recently and the feeling i have is they are on different standard where MBS is giving me more like world class casino while GSP is like low class casino in terms of the game and the service, no wander the VIP all goes to MBS... haha.

Back to the theme park portion, well, it have the Marine park opened recently, however, the return of this section is way slow to cover the expansion, i think that is why the profit of the company is like fully rely on the gambling game. So if GSP cannot do well on casino, it will keep at this situation at all the time. The fair value for GSP was expect to be ~SGD1 only with latest EPS. Talk about the future, unless GSP change the way they run the casino, else the future is not so promising, personally, i would think that they need to keep the VIP from graping away by MBS and to do this, they need to improve the service and the culture of the casino, lets compare the casino in Vegas and Macau, if you put this 2 in Singapore, which one do you think the foreigner will prefer to spend their money?? :)

The lesson learned from Genting SP is never do any forecasting based on assume (i assume the company will be getting batter with new facility opened such as Marine park but i over look the business culture of GSP and the huge competition of gambling industry in Singapore, only realize it after i visit the MBS and GSP by my self), this lesson cost me ~1.4k SGD.... very ex... haha

For the mean time i had bot in 90lots of SabanaREIT @ S$1.095. I'm looking at the high DY for this company. Since i had allocated some capital in SGX as well, I'm planning to invest on high DY or stable counter on SGX while remain active in KLSE. few reasons is: 1) SGD exchange rate is all ways stand high and i would like to take this advantage to keep some high DY stock from SGX. 2) I do not have deep analysis on SGX counters, so it is a bit risky for me to shot on SGX counter. with this, swapping my fund from SGP to REIT stock will be my plan in next few months/yrs for SGX game plan.

Back to Sabana, why Sabana? Below is the data i capture from "SGX REIT DATA" with latest QE data, filtered by only REIT for industrial.

Among all the REIT, I'm looking at higher DY,with low PTB. gearing is subjected to me as long as it is manageable. Sabana REIT just reported 100% occupied on all it portfolio and it is a good news here. On top of this, the DY is the highest among all other industrial REIT in SG. PTB is slightly above 1 (@1.03) but with the share price close to 52Wk low and PE below 10. SolidBuild REIT is new IPO and its under my monitor as well, the good thing of SBREIT is there are ~42% of her portfolio is Biz Park which is having more stable income and lower risk. :)

 REIT in Singapore might be more attractive to me as compare to REIT in Malaysia due to the land value in Singapore. On top of that, i prefer industrial REIT in Singapore due to the globally and the Singapore government strategic. the risk is fairly low as compare to Malaysia industrial REIT. The only thing that might not so good for Singapore REIT is the gearing is high, which mean they need to maintain higher occupy rate so that the DEBT can be paid on-time.