Is SUPERMAX a case of 狼来了？？

Last Friday, i decided to clear all my SUPERMAX @ 2.2+. walau! so fast scare liao!! hahaha. few reason make me take this move, however, my move is not because of panic market, it is because of signal that i learn from Mr Hu, and i try to apply it, since i still have some pocket money from it. This are the reasons why i buy SUPERMAX before hand:

1. SUPERMAX is having the lowest PE at this moment with about 11, TG is running around 15 and KOSSAN is 18.

2. TG and KOSSAN start to move a bit already and left only SUPERMAX. Yesterday it closes at flat but there is a spike up to 2.2+ during lunch time.

3. Weekly volume starts to pick up in pass 3 weeks, 10 days average price start to trend up.

and my original TP for SUPERMAX is RM2.56.



I decided to clear it one shot on Friday due to:

1. Continuously 4 days OHCL (Open High Close Low).
2. Volume Shrinked significantly.
3. Politic standpoint of SUPERMAX.
4. Global Event which is getting worst off.

From the trend point of view, i buy in with volume pick up, and i have to sell it when volume shrink together with share price trended down continuously with 10 days average line also start to flip down on Friday. I would beleive the continuous red for SUPERMAX is due to over brought in the solid green bar on Monday, however, even for the gunner and 投机客，they also need to wait for T3 to force sell, so when i see the 1st red after the green couple with long upper needle line and high volume, i pretty much confirm that the big fish is disposing SUPERMX hardly, not difficult to know that one of the giant fish is the EPF, this will link to point number 3 later. The volume and share price movement for subsequent three days further makes me almost 100% sure that the up trend for SUPERMX had been interrupted.

From point number 3, after i entered SUPERMAX, i did read quite a numbers of journal regarding glove industry and SUPERMAX, and one of the point i pick up is the SUPERMAX is anti government, hahahaha. Although i haven't see any latest new on how the management team of SUPERMAX criticize the gov, the latest article that SUPERMAX complaining the government are as below, and from what EPF had been doing all the while (Keep dispose and dispose), it is really a company that hard to get the support from GOV, at least this is what i feel.

http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/91328?tid=6
...

速柏瑪執行主席兼董事經理鄭金森
政策須利永續成長

速柏瑪（SUPERMX,7106,主板工業產品組）執行主席兼董事經理拿督斯里鄭金森表示，政府上調電費16%，全部人都受到影響，政府准許一家賺錢企業上調電費，實是令人覺得這可是件瘋狂的事！

同樣的，若是膠手套業者在沒有合理原因上調產品價格，他們的客戶也一樣質疑他們是否瘋了。

國家能源是家賺錢企業，政府還要上調電費及增加大家的成本。希望政府收到的額外收入善加利用。同時，讓更多業者參與再生能源領域，擁有平等的參與，以應對電費起價。

除了電力能源外，膠手套業者的其他經營風險，包括外匯波動及原料成本走高等。若要膠手套業持續成長，政府的政策可說是扮演舉足輕重的角色。
政府進行減赤行動實是無可厚非，惟不應該將減赤優先事項放在削減津貼方面。

電費漲打擊競爭力

鄭金森指出，上調電費，這不應該是政府首要考量，反而應該積極減低不必要的開銷。政府應該抑制不必要的開銷及弊端。

鄭金森指出，政府反而是先行處理政府出現的任何批漏與弱點、減少貪污、改善政府效率等領域，而不是一味加重各行業成本負擔而打擊競爭力。

公用事業甚至獨立發電廠業者取得數10億令吉盈利，但還是需要調漲電費？不僅企業，中低收入群也將面對電費上調衝擊。

本地膠手套行業不時針對市場變化而做出改變，不過，他認為政府也一樣需要做出改變，防止政府的錯誤，包括國家能源必須提昇它的效率，因為其他國家膠手套業者的能源成本，比大馬便宜及更具競爭力，特別是國家能源是壟斷領域。

目前本地膠手套行業每年的營業額達到約300億令吉，佔據全球膠手套市場逾60%，目前最重要的問題，是本地膠手套行業將從目前情況下走向何方？
他認為，膠手套業者知道如何經營它們本身的業務，不過，若是缺乏一個有利製造業者的經營環境，業者是很難繼續擁有永續的成長。

他指出，政府實施的政策非常重要，包括吸引人才回歸措施。特別是目前的價格都在揚升，政府有必要提供獎掖，包括新興行業地位及在油氣領域的優惠等。

本地膠手套行業每年為國家帶來逾100億令吉淨收入，有鋻於此，政府的政策有必要有利經營環境，以便吸引業者繼續投資甚至再投資。政府有必要有長期計劃，以助業者與其他國家競爭。
Lastly, with the recent dip on share market (for it, it is more like an over react on the market due to the fire call on Iraq from Obama). with the unstable global situation, i think it is hard to gain the confident of the investor to put their money in the share market at least for a short while, even I'm the investor that obey the Mr Market, i will also keep my money in other counter for now at least.

The quarter report for SUPERMAX will be out this month, and i quite confident that it will be a good one. However, i do believe that the share price on last Monday had reacted to the good result + the Ebola effect.

With the cash on hand, i will swap it to another counter either WEIDA or MARCO on Monday depends on the situation.

Ebola fears... SUPERMAX up 19 sen.

The Star Online:
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/08/01/Glove-makers-advance-on-Ebola-fears/

KUALA LUMPUR: Glove-makers bucked the weaker broad market on Friday as investors saw buying opportunities amid expectations of a surge demand in gloves following the outbreak of Ebola virus in Africa.

At 11.12am, Supermax was up 14 sen to RM2.31, Kossan added nine sen to RM4.10 while Adventa gained eight sen to RM1.12 and Top Glove edged up seven sen to RM4.70.
The FBM KLCI fell 4.85 points to 1,866.51. Turnover was 864.71 million shares valued at RM564.67mil. Losers beat gainers 527 to 179 while 276 counters were unchanged.

Reuters reported Sierra Leone has declared a state of emergency and called in troops to quarantine Ebola victims, joining neighbouring Liberia in imposing controls as the death toll from the outbreak of the virus hit 729 in West Africa.

The World Health Organisation said it would launch a US$100mil response plan on Friday during a meeting with the affected nations in Guinea. It is in urgent talks with donors and international agencies to send more medical staff and resources to the region, it said.

The WHO on Thursday reported 57 new deaths in the four days to July 27 in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Nigeria, raising the death toll to 729. It said the number of Ebola cases had topped 1,300.

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病毒肆虐 美元升值　手套股回春 涨势难测
财经张欣豪

http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=130084:&Itemid=198

（吉隆坡1日讯）西非埃博拉（又称伊波拉）病情肆虐，加上美元兑令吉匯率升值，刺激年初表现低迷的手套股，大马4大手套公司股价今天纷纷上扬，惟分析员普遍相信这只是短暂的投机活动所致，手套股涨势能否持还要胥视疫情的发展。       
隨著西非国家塞拉利昂昨日宣布进入紧急状態，其邻国利比里亚也情况严重，马股手套股在今天受到投资者追捧，顶级手套（Topglov，7113，主板工业股）、高產尼品（Kossan，7153，主板工业股）以及贺特佳（Harta，5168，主板工业股）分別上扬14仙或3.024%、8仙或1.995%以及4仙或0.605%，其中顶级手套和高產尼品分別成为全场第11和第19大上升股。
至于速柏玛（Supermx，7106，主板工业股）则是4大手套股中，表现最佳，全天共起19仙或8.756%，至2.36令吉，成为全场第9大上升股。
针对手套股在逆市中上扬，接受《东方財经》询问的分析员普遍指出，埃博拉事件使到投资者重新注意上半年表现低迷的手套股，但今日升势相信只是基於投机活动，这些手套股的股价涨势能否持续，仍须视疫情接下来的发展而定。
不愿具名的研究主管以及分析员认为，埃博拉病情若成为跨区域或跨洲疫情，势必成为手套领域强大的催化因素，甚至带动一股手套股大牛市；但若病情受到控制，相信投机活动將会迅速结束。埃博拉病毒是一种人传人的病毒，若扩散情况严重，將大大增加全球手套需求。
安联星展研究分析员表示，短期內不看好手套领域，尤其是在目前令吉兑美元呈上升趋势以及供应过剩的情况下。此外，明年的竞爭相信会更激烈。
无论如何，他认为，手套领域长期依然正面，毕竟手套股的基本面和估值仍属合理。
他指出，本次针对埃博拉病情的升势並不稳定，必须视接下来的疫情，才能决定这股上升势头能否延续。
肯纳格投行分析员表示，今天的手套股升势除了因为埃博拉病情，今天美元兑令吉大幅升值也是其中一个因素。截止今天下午尾盘，美元兑令吉相比昨天上升了0.62%，至3.2174令吉。
肯纳格投行看好手套领域
肯纳格投行分析员对手套领域较为乐观，认为手套股目前已被低估，其中供应过剩的消息已被严重放大。
他指出，目前大马手套公司的丁月青手套都处於满负荷產能，近期都在扩展新生產线，以迎合市场不断增加的需求。
手套股上半年一直表现低迷，本次病毒危机或成为一个强大的催化因素。加上手套市场的需求一直有稳健成长，肯纳格投行看好目前被低估的手套领域。
年头至今，速柏玛跌14.8%；顶级手套滑落15.28%；高尼產品跌5.32%；贺特佳跌8.02%。
安联星展研究及肯纳格投行分析员都认为，速柏玛今天表现最佳，是因为之前的股价表现最不好，且股价较便宜。
安联星展研究的手套首选股是高產尼品，目標价4.90令吉；肯纳格投行对手套领域的投资评级为「超越大市」，首选股贺特佳，目標价7.48令吉.

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Up to last Friday, Supermax had up ~7.8% from by purchasing price, this was not expected for short terms. wish the disaster will end soon..

Supermax @ 2.16

Enter Supermax @ 2.16

 

I had been eying the glove counter for few weeks, comparing few glove makers, below is some of my though on timing:

1. Supermax is having the lowest PE at this moment with about 11, TG is running around 15 and KOSSAN is 18.

2. TG and KOSSAN start to move a bit already and left only Supermax. Yesterday it closes at flat but there is a spike up to 2.2+ during lunch time.

3. Weekly volume starts to pick up in pass 3 weeks, 10 days average price start to trend up.

*From TradeSignum

 

Business point of view, global glove demand is always in increasing trend but it is slow and steady kind of uptrend, unless there is a global illness issue like SARS kind of thing, else i don't think the market will react actively with this kind of silent growth, thus i do not expect the share price to shot up spiky unless it get goreng, but long term, it should be trend up to reflect the actual value of the company. from 2013 annual report, the CEO Stanley Thai had mentioned that Supermax had set up a sales office and store in US Chicago, this move is encouraging as US is the major market of medical glove. On top of this, on June 2014, Stanley also highlight that that company is moving into RUSSIA and other ASIAN counter as they are seeing more business opportunity here. it is obvious that the company is aggressively improving the market share and looking for new business opportunity. In negative side, China is also aggressively expanding their market share in glove industry, this remain a competitive challenge to the company with the potential risk of oversupply. We see this effect in pass one year on all Malaysia glove makers.

*From I3invetor page

 

As for the accounting figure of Supermax, latest 2 quarters is running with low revenue mainly due to the output shortage caused by the fire of her manufacturing site in Alor Gajah, the manufacturing line is expected to be fully recovered by Sept/Oct 14. Thus, it should be any issue there. Debt wise, obviously Supermax is not a cash rich company for now, however, with the business outlook that they have, it is acceptable to me if they reserve the money for business expending. 
 

*From 2013 Supermx Annual Report

 

Share holder wise, top 3 share holders had taken up about 42% of total share, and top 30 share holders had consumed up to 65% of total share. EPF is the 3rd largest share holder but its only takes about 6.25%. Top 2 shares holder is Mr and Ms Stanley Thai. Recently EPF is keep on selling but the company is keep on buying back, from here, i can feel that the company is quite confident with their future especially the key share holder.

 

 

*From Q1-2014 Supermx Quarter Report

 

*From 2013 Supermx Annual Report

 

"On the dividend front, similarly to FYE2012, the Company has paid out an interim 4% tax exempt dividend for FYE2013 and the Board has proposed a final 6% tax exempt dividend which is subject to shareholders’ approval at the upcoming Annual General Meeting. This is largely in line with our aim to pay out 30% of Profit after Tax (increased from 20% prior to FY2012) in order to further reward our loyal and supportive shareholders". -- Supermax 2013 Annual Report

The Company also aiming of giving 30% of profit after tax as dividend to the share holder. From here, it seems like Supermax is not a aggressive 成长股 anymore, well, it still a good news for me anyway.

Based on above brief review, my plan is to invest 30% of my capital in Supermax with buy in 3 steps $2.16, $2.20, $2.24. cut loss at $2.05 (5%). i set the cut loss at 5% is because for me, Supermax is already hitting the bottom, if it went down further at current market, which mean she have some background issue that not known by me. while for accumulation, i buy in 3 stage with 3% increase in share price so that i can make sure i riding on the correct trend and secure my capital if anything went wrong tomorrow.

With the recovery of the production line, i expect the EPS for 2014 to be around 16cent (3.9 for 1st and 2nd Q due to pending production line recovery and 4.7 for Q3 and Q4 with full recovery of the production line) and with the fair PE of 16 in glove industry, the TP for Supermax should be around $2.56. This is equal to around 16% return of my investment. However, I’m going to apply止损不止赚like what i did on ULICORP, the decision of sell will be based on volume and share price momentum. :)

I know it is not responsible to write a lot here and ask you to buy on your own risk, but i still want to say that, buy on your own risk :)