Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Updated Blog Template *V*!!!

Dear all, I had updated my blog template, so please don't think that you had come into another blog oh... the black template feel not comfortable, feel very pressure.. so this 1 i feel better.. haha.. hope you enjoy like me too... haha *V*!!

Monday, June 8, 2009

勤做功課為何投資報酬率不佳?—破解股市迷思23

2009/03/25 23:20:53

<勤做功課為何投資報酬率不佳?—破解股市迷思23>

經常有偏愛股票投資的朋友,認為只要勤做功課,就一定能戰勝股市,因此,這些朋友不是努力閱讀財務報表,就是勤看財經新聞,要不然,就是花時間分析大盤與個股的技術分析走勢圖。但論結果,仍然不脫「賠錢」兩字。

勤做功課的朋友,有時候,往往虧損幅度還遠高於不愛做功課的人。諸如有些「傻人有傻福」型的投資人,買進了一檔股票,日子久了也忘了,忽然有一天,發現股價竟然漲了好幾倍,一開心,賣掉股票,換算持有期間的年報酬率,平均也有兩位數以上的表現。

花時間做功課的投資績效,卻輸給不花時間的人?這往往是股海常態,也常常讓有心人為之氣結。更嘔人的是,花時間挑了檔基本面好、財報漂亮的績優股,卻又眼看著投機股活蹦亂跳,而好股票的股價文風不動,真的也挺讓人傷心又難過。

但話說回來,勤做功課,就代表投資的報酬率就該增加嗎?

我覺得這根本是一個迷思,是投資人誤以為投資像考試,只要花時間讀書,就會考出好成績。但投資並非考試,為何努力做功課,就必然代表成績要好呢?更何況,讀書要有效率,要讀通、讀懂內容,考試才能拿冠軍,但有多少人搞通或搞懂投資股票的遊戲規則呢?

在投資市場上,常常看到許多朋友對於股票投資的獲利方法有哪幾種?都搞不清楚,就一味的砸錢買股票,自然產生東施效顰、啼笑皆非的效果。

舉例來說,投資人研究公司的基本面、財務報表,按理應該看重的是公司獲利能力,以及其盈餘是否能成為明年分紅的本錢。更內行與專業的投資人,要分析的則是公司長期穩定經營模式,以及創造長期現金收益的能力。這些是作為投資人是否要長期投資該檔股票,並藉以取得股利股息的關鍵因素。

但偏偏,許多基本面型投資人,不但要求公司獲利績效要浮現,更期盼其股價能提前反映未來獲利,在短時間內必須產生股價驚驚漲的效應。也就是說,長期分紅想要拿,短期資本利得也要取,兩頭都想兼顧,自然兩頭都顧不好。

再舉例來說,研究技術分析型的投資人,看重的應該是股價短期內上漲的可能性,但偏偏,為了擔心股價萬一漲不動時的風險,乾脆事前退而求其次,瞄準最壞仍要有股利股息可領的標的,因此選擇財報較佳、有利多題材的個股來投資。

結果發現,虧損累累的轉機型公司漲翻天,基本面佳的個股,卻漲個兩三天就逢高獲利回吐,發生利多出盡而慘遭高點套牢的現象。甚至,這些投資人將來的長期殖利率,還遠遜於短期股價下跌損失,可謂得不償失。

費心研究股市,努力鑽研財經新聞,或者用心看一家公司的財報或技術指標,這些都沒有錯,但問題往往出在,投資要得「法」,要掌握正確的方法,才有可能取得良好的投資績效

投資的方法不對,在基本面上做技術面功夫,或在技術線型上做財報面功課,都會產生格格不入的績效不彰現象。又或者說,長期投資人卻跑去做短線投機,短線投機人又想玩長期投資,中途變換投資方針與方向,自然更是股票投資時的大忌。

做什麼,就該像什麼!想要長期投資績優股者,看重的既然是長期獲利表現,就應該對股價短期起伏,無所介懷。反過來說,既然著眼的是股價短期的漲跌,那麼,基本面虧損的公司,又何損於其會漲的利空出盡氣勢呢?

因為投資不是長期、短期,或基本面、技術面這樣簡單的分野而已,介於這些煢煢大範疇間的交叉組合與排列方式,不知凡幾,所以,更加使得投資人踏入股票投資領域後,會發生眼花撩亂,無所適從之感。

更何況,股市多頭時期、空頭時期,以及多頭初升段、主升段、末升段,和空頭的不同階段,市場會漲的、會跌的類股,又各有其特色,這種時間長軸中的不同特性之類股輪番表現,更加深了投資人想要靠單一之方法獲利的難度。

既然股票投資獲利難有單一、簡易之法,是否代表獲利就不可行呢?當然也非如此悲觀。因時制宜,以自己之不變,隨機應變股市無時無刻之變,可說是投資股市的最高指導原則,也是遊戲規則。

投資人與其花時間勤做功課,不如在勤做功課前,先掌握好股海投資應具備的觀念、態度與準備,才有可能把時間花在刀口上,取得輕鬆、愉快、甚至不勞而獲之投資佳績。

王志鈞

>>>>>

I think it is true. From my visit to most of the investment blog, there are mainly 2 groups, one groups of ppl will do a deep analysis on the company (deep means go until few year performance as well as each of the company activities and management team). And another group are focusing more on the market situation and selecting company based on recent or 1 to 2 year performance as well as share price concerning.

For me, both of it is work for money earning, if the company is extremely good but the situation is bad, you may need more time to get return (you have 地利 but no 天时& 人和). On the other hand, if the situation is correct and the company is good or even fair (we are not going to discuss bad company here because i still cannot accept bad company with good investment return *V*!) you may have 天时,地利,人和 all 3 of them, sure you will get your return faster but you have to pay more attention to the share / market performance.

If we talk about which 1 will give the maximum return? hmm... i would say both of tham can make a maximum return, only depends on how expert you to move with Mr. Market. haha

as per above article:

股市多頭時期、空頭時期,以及多頭初升段、主升段、末升段,和空頭的不同階段,市場會漲的、會跌的類股,又各有其特色,這種時間長軸中的不同特性之類股輪番表現,更加深了投資人想要靠單一之方法獲利的難度。

Try to look for the one that suit to me *V*!

http://blog.udn.com/solon8888/2782723

Buy KFIMA at 0.685


Bot KFIMA today at 0.685.

With latest 4th Q EPS 6.43, KFIMA closed the latest financial year with total EPS 17.7, with the share price of 0.685, the past PE stands at3.87, and the forward PE 6.43 x 4 =25.72; PE = 2.67!! NTA = 1.27, RoE = 13.94.

Let’s look at the latest quarter report which is the Q4.

If we compare present Q with last Q (Q3), what we see is the revenue is decreased from 100M to 76.6M but yet the net profit is increased from 13.85M to 26.22M. This caused by the decrease of the cost of sale for Q4 from 70M to 36.5M. Decrease of 25% in revenue but cost of sale decreased almost X1 (why??), no wander the profit for this quarter still better the Q3 *V*! If compared YTY, the revenue had increased as shows in SAM's blog which is from 309M to 368M. Not bad not bad!! Quarter EPS increased from 3.61 to 6.43 (Q3) and YTY had increased from 11.51 to 17.70. Look back to the history, NTA for KFIMA is increasing from 0.95 (06), 1.05 (07), 1.09 (08) and 1.27 (09). RoE is a bit >10% for year 07 and 08 and 09 is 13.94%.

For balance sheet, in term of Asset, not much change compared to last quarter and also compared to last financial year. 1 point to highlight is the trade receivables for KFIMA is 104M for latest financial year and it is increasing from 2007 ( 52.8M), 2008 (82.89M) and present 104M but the trade payable is quite stable ~5+M each year. hmm... any how, from QTQ, it is improving "a bit" from 109M to 104M compared to past Q. Let see how it will go in future (quite sensitive with these trade receivable and payable because of the MEGAN case. haha)

For Liabilities, both long and short term borrowing had decreased compared to last year. Is this mean KFIMA is not planning to expend or the management only plan to use what they have now to expend the company?? Other then that all are quite stable compared to last financial year. Some others key ratio for KFIMA: Current ratio = 1.26 D/E ratio = 0.07!! (Is it too low?)

For cash flow statement, what i can think of is the inventory is higher compared to last year. What this mean?

From the note, the profit increased mainly due to the contribution from each of the segment where else the increase in revenue compared to last year is mainly due to the contribution from the plantation segment. Hmm, she is not really making profit from the plantation segment huh?! haha. Any how, KFIMA is started to expend the Biochemical oil palm oil. Since 2007 and this should increase her profit.

Look back to the 天时地利人和, This stock was discovered by Neoguga, from SAM's blog and look at what he says:

>>>>>>

Neoguga said...

Just did some research on some companies and from my point of view i think it's a value to buy company to me.

From you Sun Tze Art of War tactic :-

KFIMA

Tien sir : Investment holding company with exposure to plantation. (oil palm)

Dili : Low PE (5.60 from RHB) + improved qe earning of 6.43eps

Ren Her : Volume also increasing but not as powerful as RCECAP.

So sifu, how is my application of your Sun Tzu Art of War? ^^

June 3, 2009 12:28 AM

<<<<<< So?

Lets try another example on KFIMA whether this 天时地利人和 tactic is workable or not in the share market *V*!

I will not holding long on KFIMA because i don't understand why they arenot borrowing money for expend. So once profit seen then will cabut.. haha.. I'm not yet a long term investor, at least not with KFIMA. *V*!!

Btw, thanks to 8year, your books really teach me a lot especially in financial analysis, but i still got a lot to learn as you can see that not much info i can understand from KFIMA financial results. *V*!

Sunday, June 7, 2009

What i learn from <舉債來投資 MEGAN 值得嗎?>

Just finish 1 part of the KLSE.8K E-book which is the intersting part ==> 舉債來投資 MEGAN 值得嗎 ?.

Many ppl who invest in Bursa Malaysia surely know that who is this "MEGAN"!! what a big superstar. MEGAN famous with her super low PE and very good NTA, RoE and EPS, but the big mystery is why her share price keep on dropping while the company is making profit every year?!

It is really a lot of info and analysis done by 8K and others investor where they noted down in the e-book. this hand note really shows a good example of stock with good PE, NTA, and RoE not necessary a good company. For a long term investors and you are only looking at the paper work shows by the company, with this MEGAN case really can hurt you a lot!!!

What i learn from this article are:

1) Other then the financial results provided by the company, we should also sensitive to each of the activities from the management team.

In this case, Most of the share disposition activities by Mr. Yeo's already give a big hint of the thunder storm, but we are still keep on holding the point of low PE (with PE 2 for a counter in a bull market, for me is extremely abnormal!) and high NTA just because we are referring to the history of the market (in this article, the example is GAMUDA where her biggest share holder soled most of her share but GAMUDA share price moving up afterward). Is not to say that not good when we are referring to the pass market history but we should also treat each case differently. Any how, why unker 8K still keep on holding MEGAN is because he strongly believe that it is a chance to maximize the profit with super low PE (~2) in this big bull market (2007).

2) Extreme high trade receivables and extreme low trade payable, not healthy to a company as it may suffer if they have problem to chase back all the receivable. The ratio of reveiveble and payable should be under consideration as well. But regarding what ratio is the best?? i also don know, but i will find it out.

Above is what i gain from the article. For Unker 8K, he is looking for maximum return in bull market, some says that he is nothing different then 投机 because he is not looking serious into some abnormal activities of the company,but he explain that he is holding strong on MEGAN is because of her low PE and high RoE, it is not simply holding because of low prices in bull market. Btw, he also mention that he is able to take the risk even a lot of signal showing that there are something happen at behind for MEGAN, (such as extream low PE but with continuous good operation performance from 2004 until 2007; abnormal share trading by management / main share holder; abnormal in trade receivables and trade payable ratio).

Well, i would says that this is 8K's investment method, he have his own reason to keep on holding MEGAN, that's why this become a hot discussion in the Cari forum in 2006 and 2007. For me, 8K is applying the thinking against the major population (反向思考)for his stock pick, that is also why he still holding MEGAN when most of the people is having bad feeling with MEGAN. maybe that is also the reason why MEGAN share price is at low all the time because many people looking at MEGAN's week point. Any how, if MEGAN is reporting the real situation of the company with good profit and low PE, by long term holding it, the return will be very very huge! but really we can find such a company that will give extremely low PE with very good RoE, NTA and EPS in a super bull market??

Friday, June 5, 2009

soled all Annjoo-wb at 0.51


Today soled all my annjoo-wb at 0.51.. huh... how lucky am i, i had been mentally suffered by it for 3 weeks d. why?? because she is out-money!! premium ~50% when i buy. Now relax la, don't care any more even she keep on shooting up to the moon.. wakaka, you may say that i 卖错价钱就自我安慰,to be honest, i'm glad that i had soled out annjoo-wb this high risk warrant based on my原则(which i already violated at the 1st place when i buy in annjoo-wb) ^V^!

Why i buy it since it is high risk??
>> Two word ==> 想投机,贪心!! (1st wrong!!)

Why i didn't cut loss and disposed it after i regret??
>> Expired date at 2013, 4 more years to go, may still got chance to climb back. (you see!! i'm gambling!!! 2nd wrong!!)

Why i disposed at 0.51 and didn't wait for a bit since the volumn is comming??
>> Because i don't want to continue my gambling intension!! so that i'm not doing 3 mistake in one trading (i already have 2.. haha)

Am i doing the rite decision to dispose all at 0.51?? For me it is damn rite!!

When you facing this situation, you may continue to hold and by chance and luck, you "maybe" can sell at highest price. but i'm not going this way, i have to correct myself by not involve in this kind of trading!! what a horrible 3 weeks when holding Annjoo-wb.. haha

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Buy PANTECH at 0.78



As per previous post, bot PANTECH at 0.78 for 80 lots

EPS = 15.94 sen, convert to PE ~5, NTA = RM2.64

Latest Financial report:

Current ratio = 2.21, is improving ~4% yearly since 2006

RoE = 25.83, consider high if compare within the industry, so as RoA & RoC (info from The Star and BusinessWeek)

Debt to Cap % = 0.37, is <0.5 and is improving compare to 2007

Dividend Yield = 2.56%

Solid huh?! lately purchased a land at Pasir Gudang JB for business expend, o.k. la, got expend means got forcas for future earning ma ^V^ haha.

Interms of 天时,地利,人和, i already have the 天时 and 地利 (O & G theam for this year and solid FA)!!人和 (volumn + news & dividend announcement) is comming soon!! haha..

To be honest, stock pick by SAM in the industry is really "chun" as yesterday i try to look for others under perform O & G counter, as you know, only left PANTECH, and PENERGY. Another gam PETRA is too high for me and DAYANG still new are not my cup of tea lol..

Sum: I buy PANECH because she meet the criteria of 天时,地利,人和!!

Monday, June 1, 2009

My think of O & G stock


Disposed all LEADER at 0.67, plan to switch to O & G stock since Genting SP is not coming down to SGD 0.6+, haha, funny thing is LEADER shot up to 0.72 after i dispose it. Hmm.. nvm la, is your money then is yours, if it is not yours, then i won come even you wait.

Ok, today i'm trying to look for ONG counter that still worth to buy, as you see in the attachment, most of the ONG stock PE >10, below 10 we have EPIC, PETRA, PENERGY, DELEUM, SAPCRES, PANTECH, SUMATEC and DAYANG. So, this is it. which 1 can be keep ler??

For SAPCRES, SUMATEC & DAYANG, price almost hit the year high d. so i say out!

The rest is EPIC, PETRA, PENERGY, DELEUM & PANTECH, which 1 is the best?

DELEUM currently no volumn after the 2nd shot up from 1.4+ to 1.6+ last week, temperary will not considered.

PETRA start to move today, but i have limited capital, sien :(

EPIC volumn already up since last Friday and today have not much to go. the price also increased for the 2nd round since 11 May

I left PENERGY and PANTECH,

PENERGY having low volumn resently and haven't move up since all ONG already move for 2nd round, low volumn with PE ~8.6, year high ~2.4, still have ~29% room to move.

PANTECH pula, volumn start to pick up, already rised for 2nd round, low PE ~5, year high 0.9, still have 16% room to move.

Ah!! which 1 to choose??

As per 天时,地利,人和, both having same 天时&地利 ( PANTECH slidely better with PE ~5 oni) but for 人和, we should consider PENERGY which is not yet pass her 2nd raise but with low volumn or PANTECH which is already done the 2nd rise but with volumn pick up??

Or make it simple! for PENERGY, although there are room for moving up but don know when (Coz no volumn). For PANTECH, volumn up means it will move soon even with oni 16% room (this is base on year high price), some more PE lower at ~5 nia.

hmm.. will bot PANTECH tomorrow ^V^!