In the progress to reduce the Warrent

2013 Feb - Oct, i have very little activities on stock market, mainly is monitoring and to achieve what i want to do: to cut down Warrant holding. as per the review from 2010-2012, I'm too active in running in and out from the stock market. so need to change a bit the behavior.

http://ronan1111.blogspot.com/2013/01/blog-post.html

Last post, i have 4 counters on hand which is PJDEV-WC, HAPSENG-WA, YTLPOWR-WB, and FITTERS.

2 activities i had made for pass 8 months ~

1. Swapping:

PJDEV-WC is the 1st counter i cut back in May 2013, with the 505 impact, there are slightly increase in the WC price, and i just take the opportunity to chop it off and switch to FITTERS as per plan, so, my FITTERS had increase from 120lots to 321 lots now with average price at $0.71. so one mistake here is I'm buying along the rise, some more it is sky high at ~$0.8+!! WTH!! haha.. anyway, with current PE @ 7.8, i assume still quite cheap with low Debt. lets wait and see, to date holding period is ~ close to 1 year already :)

2. Reducing Warrant:

It is never been easy for me to swap the warrant immediately, but finally i have a chance to dispo my HAPSENG-WA. total disposal of 390 lots at average price of $0.63, return of ~29% in total of ~20 months. my disposition guideline is simple for HAPSENG:
1. Parent PE is ~12 already
2. Premium is almost zero liao when is sold out my last group of stock on hand at ~0.68 ( premium @ -1%).
3. conversion date is @ 2016.. already less then 3yrs, although just marginal lower then 3 years.

To date, HAPSENG_WA standing at $0.73 and i cannot for see any solid FA reason that can further push the WA up other then "goreng". well, i might wrong, and i might not knowing the company very well.. hahaha... disposing it to look for other good opportunity then.

I had also chop off 50% of my YTLPOWR recently @ $0.60, it is ~43% of my avg price already.

So why i still keeping YTLPOWR-WB at 50% while disposing HAPSENG-WA? as both the mother also running at PE 12 and premium is also @ zero now? other then the mutual date of HAPSENG-WA is shorter then YTLPOWR-WB. lets look at below plot:

HAPSENG-WA/HAPSENG

- Premium keep dropping along 2 years. this is mainly due to mother is moving faster then the child all the time.
- Mother share price already reach 2 yrs high.
- Risk: If mother not moving further, will child moving up alone? (unlikely)

YTLPOWR-WB/YTLPOWR

 

- YTLPOWR-WB premium is fluctuating along 3 years period, at different cycle, the child seem to be catching up the mother trend pretty well, thus, the correlation is more strong between mother and child for YTLPOWR based on pass data.
- Recent low premium is due to mother moving faster in this period and based on 1st point, we might still have room for the child to catch up.
- Mother PE at 12, what is the boost that can bring the mother go even higher? I'm confident with the privatization rumour. :)

So, that is the reason i chop off HAPSENG-WA instead of YTLPOWR-WB. my target cut will be at price >$0.75.based on current gearing, the mother should be at ~$2. which i think is very likely and reasonable to but hit :)

Ok, now lets talk about what next?

the uncertainty of US QE3 plan really annoying me, well, if we purely talk about counter, I'm looking at KFIMA (PE ~6.+), MULTICO (PE ~2.+).. while continue to source low PE stock. When i screen through the counter table in the newspaper, it is hardly for me to fish out the counter with PE <10 ...="" :="" p="" sad="" so="">Lets see how it goes after i done my home work, my current cash vs stock is ~50:50 liao.

妈咪孕三月

这个月，妈咪可是很难挨哦，害喜的状况越来越严重了，虽然她肚子不再涨风，但开始呕吐了。妈咪对很多味道都敏感，而且她也不敢多吃，怕你搞怪，一不合你胃口就会作呕，现在这个阶段，酸梅可是她的良伴了，这个月里，单单买酸梅就买掉了近100块。。哈哈

有时候爹地在office上班，你妈咪就会打电话来说你又坏蛋了，搞得她呕吐，虽然她很不想吃东西，因为会容易吐，但是没办法因为你需要营养咯。

这个月我们去见了医生，看到你终于有了宝宝的形状了，好开心哦。。 这一次爹地陪了妈咪去，医生还让爹地听你的心跳！

除了看私人医生，你妈咪也到政府医院去，其实爹地很不满意政府医院的服务，你妈咪早上去，竟然要等3个小时！而且Ultrasound仪器还是坏的！要不是你和妈咪需要的asid forlic 和calsium 是free的，爹地才不让妈咪去政府医院看医生！但是，听说政府粉红色小册子很重要哦，所以一定要先拿着防身！

爹地和妈咪一直在想要不要帮你存脐带血，看见很多广告但是还是做不了决定，放心，在你出生前我们一定有结论！哈哈

加码 FITTERS？？

綠色成長股‧輝德盈利長期看俏
熱股評析 2013-02-05 18:33
（吉隆坡5日訊）輝德控股（FITTERS，9318，主板貿服組）是興業研究指定的綠色成長股，即使因中國市場放緩而步伐比較蹣跚，預測其營運盈利有望從2013財政年的3%增長至2014財政年8%，再由2015年躍進至22%。

輝德主要與油棕園掛鉤，利用油棕枝幹生產為高加值生物燃料顆粒或塊狀，歐洲以這類產品取代污染嚴重的煤作為冬天取暖用途。同時也利用棕油提煉廠的廢水化為能源，作為上述產品的加工，全方位解決了油棕園與煉油廠原本被視為廢棄物的問題。

分析員說，輝德在此領域鮮少遇競爭，主要是有能力提供自供應、裝置、啟用乃至日常營運活動的“全方位方案＂，其次是願意在馬投資中持股，及提供生產干長纖維（DLF）的保障。

然而，這類產品在中國跌價，可能衝擊其盈利與賺益。因此，透過第三方執行的綠色棕油提煉與相關聯營協議，也礙於上述關係可能放緩。該公司是最近與印尼英東種植和貿易風種植（TWSPLNT，6327，主板種植組）簽約，收購有關原料作為干長纖維。

在盈利預測中，興業預測這個財政年的兩間第三方綠色棕油提煉廠貢獻介於全年的貢獻，明後年會有4間與八間加入。

透過第三方（棕油公司）以每公噸不少過520令吉收購原料，以製成上述產品。干長纖維（DLF）產品價格由3至6個月前的600至620令吉，放緩至約為520令吉，近乎無利可圖水平之下，輝德在這方面將放緩步伐。

乾長纖維（DLF）出口至中國放緩，公司也將多元化市場，以減少對某個市場過度依賴。

該行預測一旦中國製造業與經濟復甦，上述產品價格趨軟也將告一段落。

輝德也將擴大投資該產品，使干長纖維可以加工作為生質顆粒塊，這在歐洲需求更殷，價格也較穩定。

“輝德的另一心血結晶，在克服了監管機構與融資問題後，有望在使用等離子氣化工藝後，每日處理20公噸生物醫藥廢棄物。坐落森州申達央工藝園3英畝地段的處理廠，料於2014年啟用。＂

按本益比8倍計算，目標價為85仙，暫無評級。（星洲日報／財經）

=========================

Due to the over react to the elections rumours by end of Jan'13, FITTERS continuously trend down at $0.57. the CPO price had slowly pick up since mid of Dec'12. Forecasting to be positive across 2013 to 2014. How accurate will the forecast be? whatever it is, all CPO had been dropping since year back, and there will not be always low in price, so as not all time high price in the market, what i need is the power of holding. :)

 
My FITTERS is with average price of $0.64, targeting to buy in again once market open on Wednesday/Thursday :P

Well, I'll be looking at other plantation stock as well, see any undervalue guys out there :)

FITTERS at RM0.63

Bot in FITTERS today. average price at ~RM0.64.
let see how it goes :)

我对新山房地产的一些看法

看了8year前辈的一些关于Malaysia房产泡沫的文章，让我感慨现在新山房地产的情况
http://8yearsblog.blogspot.com/2012/08/2013.html

柔佛屋价在近几年真的是涨了很多，但也太快了吧？！两年前我买下了现在住的屋子，当时我是以RM450k买下来的，Clustter SemiD 四年屋龄再加上家私，在2010上旬时的这个价位算一点点偏高了，但是由于地点漂亮，保安系统好，所以就买下来了。

在短短的两年里，今天我这里的屋价以同样的配套计算，现在的市价是介于RM700k-800k之间，涨了进50%，而同一区的新屋，clustter semiD都已经在RM680k起跳了。这屋价的涨潮依小弟的看法是酱的：自从经济复苏后，马劳也开始增加了，居住于新山的马劳也越来越多，自然，这些人的购买力也增加了，但是新山还有一大部分的人是不在新国工作的，所以这两个不同income source的购买力差异也越来越大。反观新山的发展，不管你走到哪里，你都会看到一大片正在发展的组屋condo。这些发展是冲着马劳及新国人来的。

很奇怪的事发生了，每每你到新屋推介会，那些屋子都会被一抢而空，现在500k的condo一天就卖完了，是真的那么好卖吗？？先不管是发展商欺骗我们还是真有其事，屋子销售得那么快的原因肯定的是有很大的投机成分。不管是马劳，新国人，还是本地新山人，大家明显地都看好新山的房地产，大家都觉得还有屋价上升的空间，大家都觉得欣欣向荣 :)

再来看看，新山不像KL或槟城，新山有很大一片土地，说不上寸土是金，屋价上涨得快，以小弟的愚见看来，很大成分是for投资。如果是投资那就来算算吧，先别挑排屋，排屋不容易出租，就看condo吧：

价钱：
一间RM500k的两房式condo, 给了10%头期，每个月还得供接近两千，那一间租金可要在RM2000或以上。。不便宜。。

市场：
1。 本地人？本地人肯定租不起，租得起的也很少，要是本地人租的起，那他因该买得起，何必租呢？
2。 马劳？同样的道理，要是租的起，那他因该买得起，如果说不是长住，那在新加坡租房间更划算。进出新加坡很辛苦的。
3。新国人？可能有少数会跟你买起来，那就很幸运了。

投资竞争：
不必多说了，你想到的人家也想到，以现在一扫而空的情况来看，同一栋楼不懂有几间在等着出租。

总的来说，现在新山的屋价太贵了，如果你要买来住那还好，如果买来投资可能会有蛮高的风险，不是怕你供不起，而是一旦你卖或租不出，你还得按时出钱保养它，不然要卖时也没价钱。很多人都会说propety不会贬值，那是对的，除非你买在合理价。那什么是合理价呢？如果你是新山人，有空开车去Bukit Indah, 2nd link, Permas, Setia Indah, Setia Tropika看看，如果你觉得供求平衡,那当下的价钱就是合理价了，如果有人告诉你新加坡，吉隆坡，槟城屋价更高，那是应该的，因为他们是他们，我们是新山 :)

House Price index: http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/malaysia/Price-History

Reason of 加码 FITTERS

Found a post on CARI regarding FITTERS, not so old but also not new, just to share:

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

投資致富 2012-12-10 11:25

芙蓉讀者問：
輝德控股（FITTERS，9318，主板貿服組）前景如何？我早前以每張5仙，買進20萬張輝德控股WA（FITTERS-WA，9318WA，憑單），若全面轉換這批憑單，虧損幾率會有多大？因為我擔心當每個投資者都進行轉換，賣壓會導致轉換成本上升，最終母股會跌破58仙嗎？

答：
輝德截至9月30日首9個月淨利增長18.13%至1千754萬4千令吉，受惠於防火配備及建築原料銷售上漲。雖然該公司一直以來都取得盈利成長，不過卻沒有受到市場太大的關注。

該公司早前與貿易風種植（TWSPLNT，6327，主板種植組）聯營投資綠色提煉廠解決方案活動，將提煉廠排出的污水和棕果渣用於發電和生產纖維。這符合其商業經營模式，除了透過纖維貿易營造經常性收入，也藉此增加收入基礎，相信上述投資項目每年可捎來150萬令吉淨利。

分析員認為輝德攫獲的綠色提煉廠解決方案合約，只能從2013財政年開始顯現盈利效益，並看好該公司未來將宣佈更多類似投資項目，以吸引機構投資者的目光。

綠色提煉廠業務料佔2013財年7%盈利貢獻，但2014年可激增至29%，至2015年更達41%。該公司整體表現不錯，分析員給予其1令吉零5仙至1令吉15仙合理價，不過若缺乏催化劑，股價短期或難有大突破。 (good to catch now :P)

另外，談到憑單轉換問題，輝德控股WA已從11月8日起暫停交易，並在11月28日除牌。以53仙轉換價及你買進的每張憑單5仙計，總成本只有58仙，顯著低於母股約64.5仙。兩者的價差為6.5仙，若乘上手中的20萬張憑單，則可在轉換期限內賺取1萬3千令吉，惟前提是母股仍企於64.5仙水平，而上週五止，每股只處61仙水平，未來盈虧仍胥視母股前景。（星洲日報／投資致富‧投資問診室）

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

So, the mother seem to be more attractive to me compare to the WA, even though it is not applicable now, i more interested in the comment of the future earning.

Digging more into the annual report to check out the performance again, as in my previous post, the performance of this stock is consider fare, however, I'm interested to look into more on the company performance during 2007/2008 and 2009 to check out how did she perform during financial crisis, well, this is what i found:

 

Summary:

1. Company is making profit for pass 10 years, non of the year is making loss.

2. EPS & profit is fluctuating, but still performing at average during 2008/2009 period.

3. Revenue increase in recent 5 years, latest rolling 4 quarters shows slight drop in revenue (404,607) as compare to 2011 but profit is higher then 2011 with rolling 4Q ended at 24,668 (EPS ~11sen)

4. historical gearing looks healthy and well below 0pt5. just a bit concern on the operating cash flow over total asset, it was at -ve on year 2011.

5. ROE not really stable but still +ve.

From business point of view, it is the  leader in providing integrated fire protection and prevention solutions as a “one-stop” fire protection specialist. In mid of 2011, the company start to expend into the renewable energy & green palm oil mill, property development and construction engineering which is still a good move from my point of view (anyhow you can only make consistent money with concurring the fire protection market in Malaysia, to growth the company, i think this is a good move).

looking at the top 30 share holder list, they are holding up to ~70% of the share at 2011, the liquidity of share in the market is quite low if it is still in the same status today. Also that the company still carry out quite heavy of share buy back in this year and recently, not sure this is good or bad but at lease this shows that the share holder are still confident on the business (given it to maintain the share price or to accumulate the share)

Good thing is it is not a hot stock and i don't think the market is focusing on this counter, current price at 0.61sen with PE at ~8.7, not super cheap but it has been traded at 2 years lowest price now. current CPO price is pretty low, and by the time the CPO price recover, i would expect the company will be making profit from the green energy division.

FITTERS was introduced by SAM, together with the same time frame, he had also buy in some other stock, however, I only intrested in FITTERS mainly due to what was discussed above. I'm currently holding FITTERS with less then 20pst of my capitial, i'm going to try to swap some of my warrant to FITTERS and make it to about 30pst of my capital, this will be my 1st step to change my invesment from heavy warrant to heavy mother :P

- Just a 2 sense from me :)

妈咪孕二月

进入第七个礼拜了。。你妈咪又要去为你照相了，很对不起，爹地每次都不能陪妈咪去，要上班挣奶粉钱啦，哈哈，妈咪要周日去，因为人比较少，所以爹地就不能去了。。

 

虽然还看不清楚宝贝你长什么样，但Ah Bee你好像变大了哦！！妈咪告诉爹地说医生让她听你的心跳！爹地半信半疑，你的小心脏已经开始工作了? 哈哈， 我的宝贝你很健康哦！

 

这个月你妈咪蛮辛苦的，她肚子开始涨风了，由于你的appartment越来越大，把妈咪的胃和肠往上推，所以她时常会打嗝和放屁，肚子好不舒服哦。此外，你妈咪的胃口也变了，以前她超爱吃的面粉稞，现在一点都不想吃，还只喜欢吃apolo layer cake，你妈咪说是因为宝贝你不喜欢，哈哈，所以整个月下来她什么也吃不下，但又不可以不吃，怕你饿到。我们都搞不懂你爱吃什么。为了让你有足够的营养，爹地买了Ammum给妈咪喝，但你妈咪说喝久了很腻，不过没法啦，谁叫你是她的心肝宝贝，她还是乖乖地喝。

 

这时的妈咪特别懒惰！每天躺在沙发上很累酱，所以爹地答应了她从现在起妈咪不用做家务了，爹地会做完全部家务直到你出生 :) （其实爹地想请女佣的，不过因为懒惰找，所以到现在还是自己做。。）

 

虽然你妈咪很懒惰酱，但她还是超厉害的，尽然还带你出远门去旅行呢！！那是你第一次坐飞机，还去了印尼，那是她的公司旅行啦，你还算乖，没让她在出门时太辛苦。。

 

在这个月里，你长得很快，而妈咪开始担心害喜的状况越来越严重，注意哦，他还没开始呕吐哦 :)