Genting SP Heart Broken La, SWAP SWAP SWAP.

I had disposed all my Genting SP last week. It is enough for me, i had been keeping this stock since early 2012 until now, and it is really funny that by the time when i buy in, the PE is ~18 with the price of S$1.52, but today, it is at S$1.475 and the PE is way high at 28!! What is happening? One thing i observes along this ~2years period, Genting SP had never perform any batter either in gambling or its entertainment theme park.

One of the big challenge for Genting is MBS, well, in a small country like Singapore and there are 2 casino is really big matter! when i buy in genting SP, I'm expecting a tough competition here and standing a chance of 50-50 for this 2 casinos, but with what i see in pass 2 years, genting had been losing to MBS at almost every FY regardless of the wining rate and the VIP occupy rate. Well, i do expose my self to both of the casino recently and the feeling i have is they are on different standard where MBS is giving me more like world class casino while GSP is like low class casino in terms of the game and the service, no wander the VIP all goes to MBS... haha.

Back to the theme park portion, well, it have the Marine park opened recently, however, the return of this section is way slow to cover the expansion, i think that is why the profit of the company is like fully rely on the gambling game. So if GSP cannot do well on casino, it will keep at this situation at all the time. The fair value for GSP was expect to be ~SGD1 only with latest EPS. Talk about the future, unless GSP change the way they run the casino, else the future is not so promising, personally, i would think that they need to keep the VIP from graping away by MBS and to do this, they need to improve the service and the culture of the casino, lets compare the casino in Vegas and Macau, if you put this 2 in Singapore, which one do you think the foreigner will prefer to spend their money?? :)

The lesson learned from Genting SP is never do any forecasting based on assume (i assume the company will be getting batter with new facility opened such as Marine park but i over look the business culture of GSP and the huge competition of gambling industry in Singapore, only realize it after i visit the MBS and GSP by my self), this lesson cost me ~1.4k SGD.... very ex... haha

For the mean time i had bot in 90lots of SabanaREIT @ S$1.095. I'm looking at the high DY for this company. Since i had allocated some capital in SGX as well, I'm planning to invest on high DY or stable counter on SGX while remain active in KLSE. few reasons is: 1) SGD exchange rate is all ways stand high and i would like to take this advantage to keep some high DY stock from SGX. 2) I do not have deep analysis on SGX counters, so it is a bit risky for me to shot on SGX counter. with this, swapping my fund from SGP to REIT stock will be my plan in next few months/yrs for SGX game plan.

Back to Sabana, why Sabana? Below is the data i capture from "SGX REIT DATA" with latest QE data, filtered by only REIT for industrial.

Among all the REIT, I'm looking at higher DY,with low PTB. gearing is subjected to me as long as it is manageable. Sabana REIT just reported 100% occupied on all it portfolio and it is a good news here. On top of this, the DY is the highest among all other industrial REIT in SG. PTB is slightly above 1 (@1.03) but with the share price close to 52Wk low and PE below 10. SolidBuild REIT is new IPO and its under my monitor as well, the good thing of SBREIT is there are ~42% of her portfolio is Biz Park which is having more stable income and lower risk. :)

 REIT in Singapore might be more attractive to me as compare to REIT in Malaysia due to the land value in Singapore. On top of that, i prefer industrial REIT in Singapore due to the globally and the Singapore government strategic. the risk is fairly low as compare to Malaysia industrial REIT. The only thing that might not so good for Singapore REIT is the gearing is high, which mean they need to maintain higher occupy rate so that the DEBT can be paid on-time.

Enter YTL... Just give me a reason just a little bit... ^_^

 

 

Late post, enter a little bit of YTL Corp last week @1.61. this is a recormended counter by other blogger, but by the time i'm ready to enter (review, velidate, and fund alocation), it had increased ~7% from the proposing enter price from the blog, obviously the one who make call is entering at the right time while i'm enter at so call bit late after rebounce from 52 week low. :)

YTL PE are at ~11 based on latest quarter EPS calculation at the time i enter, this is violating my normal counter picking for PE below 10, so the reason for me to enter is blue chip and 52week low share price. From the point i enter, it had bounced 7% from bottom, well, it should be a safe place from my point of view, why? i'm looking at YTL at PE 15 which translate to ~RM2 price, this is ~25% return and i think 15 PE is fare for YTL. My cash ratio to YTL is also pretty low, just to get some pocket money from it :)

Ok, some other counter that i'm eyeing and doing some homework, they are SUNREIT and UMWOG.

SUNREIT is not those kind of stock that you can get return from the share price in short period but rather the DIV, this counter have DIV yield ~6%, well, not the best amoung other company in this sector but if you look at the property under this company, they are mainly shopping mall, the rental are relatively more stable. so i'm looking at a right timeing to enter.

UMWOG is an IPO counter on 1/11. well well, the ONG counter always come with higher price, since it was just launched, i will wait for couple of week to see the situation after market is stable. TP below RM3.. :) 

In the progress to reduce the Warrent

2013 Feb - Oct, i have very little activities on stock market, mainly is monitoring and to achieve what i want to do: to cut down Warrant holding. as per the review from 2010-2012, I'm too active in running in and out from the stock market. so need to change a bit the behavior.

http://ronan1111.blogspot.com/2013/01/blog-post.html

Last post, i have 4 counters on hand which is PJDEV-WC, HAPSENG-WA, YTLPOWR-WB, and FITTERS.

2 activities i had made for pass 8 months ~

1. Swapping:

PJDEV-WC is the 1st counter i cut back in May 2013, with the 505 impact, there are slightly increase in the WC price, and i just take the opportunity to chop it off and switch to FITTERS as per plan, so, my FITTERS had increase from 120lots to 321 lots now with average price at $0.71. so one mistake here is I'm buying along the rise, some more it is sky high at ~$0.8+!! WTH!! haha.. anyway, with current PE @ 7.8, i assume still quite cheap with low Debt. lets wait and see, to date holding period is ~ close to 1 year already :)

2. Reducing Warrant:

It is never been easy for me to swap the warrant immediately, but finally i have a chance to dispo my HAPSENG-WA. total disposal of 390 lots at average price of $0.63, return of ~29% in total of ~20 months. my disposition guideline is simple for HAPSENG:
1. Parent PE is ~12 already
2. Premium is almost zero liao when is sold out my last group of stock on hand at ~0.68 ( premium @ -1%).
3. conversion date is @ 2016.. already less then 3yrs, although just marginal lower then 3 years.

To date, HAPSENG_WA standing at $0.73 and i cannot for see any solid FA reason that can further push the WA up other then "goreng". well, i might wrong, and i might not knowing the company very well.. hahaha... disposing it to look for other good opportunity then.

I had also chop off 50% of my YTLPOWR recently @ $0.60, it is ~43% of my avg price already.

So why i still keeping YTLPOWR-WB at 50% while disposing HAPSENG-WA? as both the mother also running at PE 12 and premium is also @ zero now? other then the mutual date of HAPSENG-WA is shorter then YTLPOWR-WB. lets look at below plot:

HAPSENG-WA/HAPSENG

- Premium keep dropping along 2 years. this is mainly due to mother is moving faster then the child all the time.
- Mother share price already reach 2 yrs high.
- Risk: If mother not moving further, will child moving up alone? (unlikely)

YTLPOWR-WB/YTLPOWR

 

- YTLPOWR-WB premium is fluctuating along 3 years period, at different cycle, the child seem to be catching up the mother trend pretty well, thus, the correlation is more strong between mother and child for YTLPOWR based on pass data.
- Recent low premium is due to mother moving faster in this period and based on 1st point, we might still have room for the child to catch up.
- Mother PE at 12, what is the boost that can bring the mother go even higher? I'm confident with the privatization rumour. :)

So, that is the reason i chop off HAPSENG-WA instead of YTLPOWR-WB. my target cut will be at price >$0.75.based on current gearing, the mother should be at ~$2. which i think is very likely and reasonable to but hit :)

Ok, now lets talk about what next?

the uncertainty of US QE3 plan really annoying me, well, if we purely talk about counter, I'm looking at KFIMA (PE ~6.+), MULTICO (PE ~2.+).. while continue to source low PE stock. When i screen through the counter table in the newspaper, it is hardly for me to fish out the counter with PE <10 ...="" :="" p="" sad="" so="">Lets see how it goes after i done my home work, my current cash vs stock is ~50:50 liao.

妈咪孕三月

这个月，妈咪可是很难挨哦，害喜的状况越来越严重了，虽然她肚子不再涨风，但开始呕吐了。妈咪对很多味道都敏感，而且她也不敢多吃，怕你搞怪，一不合你胃口就会作呕，现在这个阶段，酸梅可是她的良伴了，这个月里，单单买酸梅就买掉了近100块。。哈哈

有时候爹地在office上班，你妈咪就会打电话来说你又坏蛋了，搞得她呕吐，虽然她很不想吃东西，因为会容易吐，但是没办法因为你需要营养咯。

这个月我们去见了医生，看到你终于有了宝宝的形状了，好开心哦。。 这一次爹地陪了妈咪去，医生还让爹地听你的心跳！

除了看私人医生，你妈咪也到政府医院去，其实爹地很不满意政府医院的服务，你妈咪早上去，竟然要等3个小时！而且Ultrasound仪器还是坏的！要不是你和妈咪需要的asid forlic 和calsium 是free的，爹地才不让妈咪去政府医院看医生！但是，听说政府粉红色小册子很重要哦，所以一定要先拿着防身！

爹地和妈咪一直在想要不要帮你存脐带血，看见很多广告但是还是做不了决定，放心，在你出生前我们一定有结论！哈哈

加码 FITTERS？？

綠色成長股‧輝德盈利長期看俏
熱股評析 2013-02-05 18:33
（吉隆坡5日訊）輝德控股（FITTERS，9318，主板貿服組）是興業研究指定的綠色成長股，即使因中國市場放緩而步伐比較蹣跚，預測其營運盈利有望從2013財政年的3%增長至2014財政年8%，再由2015年躍進至22%。

輝德主要與油棕園掛鉤，利用油棕枝幹生產為高加值生物燃料顆粒或塊狀，歐洲以這類產品取代污染嚴重的煤作為冬天取暖用途。同時也利用棕油提煉廠的廢水化為能源，作為上述產品的加工，全方位解決了油棕園與煉油廠原本被視為廢棄物的問題。

分析員說，輝德在此領域鮮少遇競爭，主要是有能力提供自供應、裝置、啟用乃至日常營運活動的“全方位方案＂，其次是願意在馬投資中持股，及提供生產干長纖維（DLF）的保障。

然而，這類產品在中國跌價，可能衝擊其盈利與賺益。因此，透過第三方執行的綠色棕油提煉與相關聯營協議，也礙於上述關係可能放緩。該公司是最近與印尼英東種植和貿易風種植（TWSPLNT，6327，主板種植組）簽約，收購有關原料作為干長纖維。

在盈利預測中，興業預測這個財政年的兩間第三方綠色棕油提煉廠貢獻介於全年的貢獻，明後年會有4間與八間加入。

透過第三方（棕油公司）以每公噸不少過520令吉收購原料，以製成上述產品。干長纖維（DLF）產品價格由3至6個月前的600至620令吉，放緩至約為520令吉，近乎無利可圖水平之下，輝德在這方面將放緩步伐。

乾長纖維（DLF）出口至中國放緩，公司也將多元化市場，以減少對某個市場過度依賴。

該行預測一旦中國製造業與經濟復甦，上述產品價格趨軟也將告一段落。

輝德也將擴大投資該產品，使干長纖維可以加工作為生質顆粒塊，這在歐洲需求更殷，價格也較穩定。

“輝德的另一心血結晶，在克服了監管機構與融資問題後，有望在使用等離子氣化工藝後，每日處理20公噸生物醫藥廢棄物。坐落森州申達央工藝園3英畝地段的處理廠，料於2014年啟用。＂

按本益比8倍計算，目標價為85仙，暫無評級。（星洲日報／財經）

=========================

Due to the over react to the elections rumours by end of Jan'13, FITTERS continuously trend down at $0.57. the CPO price had slowly pick up since mid of Dec'12. Forecasting to be positive across 2013 to 2014. How accurate will the forecast be? whatever it is, all CPO had been dropping since year back, and there will not be always low in price, so as not all time high price in the market, what i need is the power of holding. :)

 
My FITTERS is with average price of $0.64, targeting to buy in again once market open on Wednesday/Thursday :P

Well, I'll be looking at other plantation stock as well, see any undervalue guys out there :)

FITTERS at RM0.63

Bot in FITTERS today. average price at ~RM0.64.
let see how it goes :)

我对新山房地产的一些看法

看了8year前辈的一些关于Malaysia房产泡沫的文章，让我感慨现在新山房地产的情况
http://8yearsblog.blogspot.com/2012/08/2013.html

柔佛屋价在近几年真的是涨了很多，但也太快了吧？！两年前我买下了现在住的屋子，当时我是以RM450k买下来的，Clustter SemiD 四年屋龄再加上家私，在2010上旬时的这个价位算一点点偏高了，但是由于地点漂亮，保安系统好，所以就买下来了。

在短短的两年里，今天我这里的屋价以同样的配套计算，现在的市价是介于RM700k-800k之间，涨了进50%，而同一区的新屋，clustter semiD都已经在RM680k起跳了。这屋价的涨潮依小弟的看法是酱的：自从经济复苏后，马劳也开始增加了，居住于新山的马劳也越来越多，自然，这些人的购买力也增加了，但是新山还有一大部分的人是不在新国工作的，所以这两个不同income source的购买力差异也越来越大。反观新山的发展，不管你走到哪里，你都会看到一大片正在发展的组屋condo。这些发展是冲着马劳及新国人来的。

很奇怪的事发生了，每每你到新屋推介会，那些屋子都会被一抢而空，现在500k的condo一天就卖完了，是真的那么好卖吗？？先不管是发展商欺骗我们还是真有其事，屋子销售得那么快的原因肯定的是有很大的投机成分。不管是马劳，新国人，还是本地新山人，大家明显地都看好新山的房地产，大家都觉得还有屋价上升的空间，大家都觉得欣欣向荣 :)

再来看看，新山不像KL或槟城，新山有很大一片土地，说不上寸土是金，屋价上涨得快，以小弟的愚见看来，很大成分是for投资。如果是投资那就来算算吧，先别挑排屋，排屋不容易出租，就看condo吧：

价钱：
一间RM500k的两房式condo, 给了10%头期，每个月还得供接近两千，那一间租金可要在RM2000或以上。。不便宜。。

市场：
1。 本地人？本地人肯定租不起，租得起的也很少，要是本地人租的起，那他因该买得起，何必租呢？
2。 马劳？同样的道理，要是租的起，那他因该买得起，如果说不是长住，那在新加坡租房间更划算。进出新加坡很辛苦的。
3。新国人？可能有少数会跟你买起来，那就很幸运了。

投资竞争：
不必多说了，你想到的人家也想到，以现在一扫而空的情况来看，同一栋楼不懂有几间在等着出租。

总的来说，现在新山的屋价太贵了，如果你要买来住那还好，如果买来投资可能会有蛮高的风险，不是怕你供不起，而是一旦你卖或租不出，你还得按时出钱保养它，不然要卖时也没价钱。很多人都会说propety不会贬值，那是对的，除非你买在合理价。那什么是合理价呢？如果你是新山人，有空开车去Bukit Indah, 2nd link, Permas, Setia Indah, Setia Tropika看看，如果你觉得供求平衡,那当下的价钱就是合理价了，如果有人告诉你新加坡，吉隆坡，槟城屋价更高，那是应该的，因为他们是他们，我们是新山 :)

House Price index: http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/malaysia/Price-History