Warren Buffett's Ground Rules: Words of Wisdom from the Partnership Letters of the World's Greatest Investor -- by Jeremy Miller

书名有够长的咯。个人觉得这是一本很不错的书，无可否任，巴非特的热门书籍一大堆，著名的有 “巴非特致股东们的信”，“滚雪球”等等，而这本对我来说就好比巴非特投资前传，来看看里面写什么。

此书分为三部；基本概念，投资策略，及心里偏误。作者基本上是把早期巴非特出道时写给“合伙人”的信重新整理了一遍再把大纲分成以上三部来解读。其实，个人觉得比较relevent 的就是基本概念和投资策略。

在基本概念这一章里，不用多说，巴非特的基本投资概念大家都略知一二，本章比较有趣的是巴非特的绩效衡量，他唯一想打败的是DOW，而我一直都在看个人回筹率而已，当然，要效仿他的话，你的投资肯定要是长线的，min 3 years.....

再来是投资策略，原来以前巴哥也是炒股起家的，此章解说了有名的cigar butt investing，既是net-net stock。说到net net stock，巴哥以前只考虑net net performance，而大家所了解的价值投资，就是以合理价买入优秀的公司，其实是巴非特后期的投资策略，本章也解释巴非特为何改变策略。除了低估型投资，也看到一些巴非特以前的投资策略，比如套利型投资，控制型投资，及后期的控股型投资。

其他有趣的info比如如何计算公司价值，及对长线的看法等等都是有比较独特的见解。看了之后，我不敢肯定你的投资会从此无往不利，但是你肯定会对你所了解的巴非特有不同的见解。

投资成本

先不说买股票有没有赚，只要你做买卖transection，你就要付佣金了，所以今天心血来潮，想看看我这些年来买股票被投行抽的佣金有多少，就从2012到2018 七月吧。这不包括Contra，是的，我定力不足，时不时会玩Contra。

看到summary了吧？我自己都吓到！！这些是感觉不到的成本！其实，逻辑很奇怪，股市如果我们频密地做买卖，单单被抽的佣金就很可多了，还要自己操做那么高风险的投资产品？
...

有时候你不把东西画出墙是看不到的，好好研究，看定定再买，要不然陪了夫人又折兵啊！

Singtel - 4th Jul'18

Singtel closed at 3.02 yesterday, what a direct flight from ~3.40 to current price. So what drives to this trend? The logic seems works for me, main trigger from May 17: Singtel announced the Q4 and 2018 Final report:

•  Revenue increased (+4.9%) but the underlying net profit dropped (-7.8%) if exclude the gain from the disposition of NetLink Trust.
• Revenue increase for all the sector except for the National Phone and International Phone, this 2 consist of a small portion of the revenue @ ~8%, something to note but not big.
• Operation profit dropped mainly from the result of a decline in Airtel’s India earnings and charges from increased network investments and spectrum.
• 2018 total Div payout is ~81% (include all the special div). This is good for 2018 but no longer for future where by the Div payout will be fixed at 17.5ct for the next 2 FY. Resume the 60-75% Div payout only by FY21.
• Expect stable “single digit” profit for next 2 years before Singtel can see anything increase in the profit.

Recent share buyback (actually very tiny if compare to the overall all Cap size of SingTel.):

• May 17: SGD ~1 mil @ SGD3.42/3.43
• May28: SGD ~ 0.44mil @ SGD 3.34

Risk:

• Increase of compaction in Singapore telco market with new players coming in end of this year.
• India Telco join venture is facing hard fight with new competitor.
• Invrstment cost.

What Singtel is doing so far (According to the latest annual report):

• Singtel embarked on a company-wide digital transformation more than five years ago to rebuild our business around data and digital. As digital eroded industry barriers and disrupted old business models, going digital has meant developing strategies that go beyond the context of our telco industry. Instead, we have leveraged our telco assets and customer relationships to develop new businesses such as cyber security, digital marketing and smart city solutions. We have also begun building a digital ecosystem with our associates to aggregate millions of customers across the region. As digital
• Had revolutionized consumer behavior and company processes, we have also digitalised our core consumer and enterprise businesses.
• Our new growth initiatives have grown from strength to strength – our digital and ICT businesses now contribute nearly 25% of Group revenue.

The reason i buy in:

• Share price @ 52 weeks low (S$3.4 at that point of time)
• Good div pay out and stable track record
• Singapore blue chip
• Regional dai kor for Telco
• Sound solid management (based on the road map and transform seen on Singtel)

Any changes against my reason of purchase?

• Share price @ 52 weeks low -> No, now even lower... haha
• Good div pay out and stable track record -> announced fix DY for 17.5ct for next 2 FY and resume in FY21, still acceptable to me.
• Singapore blue chip -> No change
• Regional dai kor for Telco -> No change
• Sound solid management (based on the road map and transform seen on Singtel) -> No key person changes

Conclusion:

• Hold at this moment in view of Div payout in Aug.
• Expect small re-bounce after reason heavy sell.

- Temporary have no plan to top up, lets see the share price movement in this few days as well as after the Annual GM on 7/24.

Holding (11th June 2018) - *Throwback

Capital Distribution:

• 1% Cash
• 97% Share in SGX
• 42% in 1 high pay Reit (13.8% DPU)
• 55% in 2 different Companies
• Annual div payout based on current PF is ~6.2%.

 Since the first review on 15th May, i had made some changes to my portfolio, the main reason behind is to streamline my portfolio and focus on fewer counter that i'm confident with.

1. Asian Pay Tv:

 I had made a transaction to average down this reit at 0.46c, of cause, that is before it went down to ~0.41c and now come back at weaker momentum. My current avg price is at 0.54c with paper loss of ~19%. To be honest, the situation is ugly, i have to admit that, i'm only looking at the high DPU of this counter (~12.2% at my avg price), other than that, the situations of the company are not that attractive with the high gearing and challenging business environment. 2 key challenges for the company are: the popularity of internet Tv in the future over current cable Tv, and the tax rule changes at Taiwan (increase from 17% to 20% for related business), which had significantly impacted the profit of the company.

Well, the situation is still in mix, as the company have an advantage of 100% owning the hybrid fibre coaxial cable network in their franchise areas of Taiwan (Taoyuan, Hsinchu, Miaoli, TaiZhong), owning this facility have add advantage to the company in the sense of:

• Building the Fibre cable is a resilient business with high barriers of entry due to high network roll out requirements.
• Large customer base makes TBC attractive to local content providers; unique commercial arrangement with content providers.
• Long standing relationship with subscribers; deep understanding of Taiwanese viewers’preference.

 How i look at the situation is: although there will be a hard fight between internet Tv and cable Tv, the high quality internet will need to rely on the broadband, which is backed-up by the hybrid fibre coaxial cable network. So, with regards how bad the fight is, Asian Pay Tv should also get some return from their cable network. A good news is that the broadband business is the only business that seeing growth in the latest quarter, which at least re-leaf my short term worried on this counter.

2. Avi-tech.

 I disposed all my Avi with several reasons:

• Wth the same DPU at ~5%, Singtel seems to be having more advantage in terms of the share price and the business model.
• I entered Avi without much advantage of the share price, and the latest Quarter report shows decline in the profit, indicates by the weaker demand of electronic testing. So cutting out this counter at 9% loss and work it out as per the plan.

3. Singtel

 No doubt, Singtel share price declined after they announce the latest quarter report due to the profit are not meeting the market expectation. With the original plan to avrg down at 3.2-3.3 and cut loss at 3.0, i had top up some units at 3.29 (after seeing recovery from 3.24), unfortunately, the share price went back down again recently to 3.23. My average price is now at 3.4 (~5% paper loss), but i have no worried about this counter at all: a blue-chip with share price @ 52 wk low + 5% DPU + good management + Temasek holding... hahaha... This will be my long term game.

4. Hanwell

This is really a boring counter, but i had decided to top up more at 0.23c, it is at net net stock at this price. The company have 2 key businesses: A good growth sector from their paper packaging business, and a stable + solid business sector from their FMCG (rice, toufu, snack and bla bla bla....). There is a lot of potential for the share price, and relatively lower risk due to the good FA.
That is all for the changes in my portfolio, now i have a high DPU Reit (relatively high risk :(), a superb bluechip stock and a low risk net net stock, i'm very comfortable with the arrangement. I guess the missing type of counter in my portfolio will be a high growth mid cap stock. lets reserving bullet while continue searching for my last piece of puzzle!

REIT

今天讲产托，毕竟它占了一半我的portfolio。产托在我的portfolio占了相对大的比例是因为：

1. 风险比起普通股票相对来得底
2. 平均股息比普通股票高
3. 股价对于市场的反应相对迟钝

 

所以，投资了产托就甭想暴涨，当然，暴跌的机率也比较低，总结一下：平均股息高，股价反应慢，有足够时间决定买卖策略。

 

本人比较喜好新加坡的产托，原因是平均利息会比大马产托高，分别大概是 7-8% vs 5-6%。我也发现在新加坡上市的REIT未必一定是在新加坡置产的，在外国置产的有 Lippo Malls （印尼）及 Dasin Retail REIT （中国）等等，可供区域风险管理的选择。

 

好了，那选择REIT的标准呢？其实这个是很个人的，如果新加坡的话，我偏好的产业会是Officec Building 及工业区，大马产托的话我就比较喜欢购物广场，当然还是以个别的股息及财务状况来决定。我在S-REIT Investment Blog 发现他的选REIT标准蛮适合我的，以下是一些参考数据：

 

-> at least 8% yield.

-> Price that is lower than its NAV.

-> Low gearing (if possible)

-> High secured NAV.

 

再来是对现在新加坡和大马产托的看法：

 

新加坡：

FTSE ST Real Estate Inv Trust Index 打从2016年尾牛了一整年，从701点爬到2018年一月的~874后就往下掉了，现在来到~800点，看来是在下跌趋势中。Phillip Securities 在五月做了统计，市场上笼统数据都显示厂房，仓库的出租率及租金都在下降，多家产托最新几个季度的业绩都下降了，唯一比较明朗的是拥有High techpark的，这看得出是响应了新加坡政府的smart nation program。有兴趣的话可以找找哪家产托是着重于出租high techpark的，可能还可以收一收。此外，新加坡还有一些信托是归类在REIT以下的，有机会再分享。

 

大马：

 

REIT指数在今年三四月探底~856点后，现在已经回升到~950区域了，那是一口气往上爬的，接下来因该会来个小调整，然后再往上爬。配合大马换政府的不确定性，产托成了避险股被推了一轮，在加上新政府废除GST，让很多的产托的股价再继续冲到了今天的950点，尤其是广场型的。当然，我只看到retail的产托有比较明朗的前景，至于办公室产托在这一轮的上涨后能不能维持后续就有所保留了。

 

好啦，我手上有一只新加坡的REIT,不过不是传统的，内人有两只大马的Retail REIT，下一篇可以看看。。

Singtel (SGX: Z74)

基本面：

新加坡电信老大。和其他两家电信（StarHub, M1）比较的话，SingTel 在新加坡的mobile market share有49%，不过只有30%的盈利是来自新加坡，另外22%和48%来自澳洲与其他亚太地区的电信投资（摘自2017年报），总结是她的风险管理我个人觉得一流，毕竟新加坡竞争强，市场小，新加坡以外的机会比较多。

盈利方面是很稳定的，派息也很规律。前景的话，SingTel 在几年前就已经部署进军digitalisation sector，大概就是big data, cloud, cyber securities, smart city 等等，盼了几年，最近终于开始供应盈利了，这也是为什么他们不急于react to M1在新加坡的数据削价战，人家志不在此啊。总的来说，Singtel的管理方式是倾向于稳健的风险管理，加上长远的投资（比如三年前的策略性进军digitalisation sector）。

最大股东就是新加坡政府咯，淡马锡52%，外资14%，新加坡本地市场大概12%。所以股价变化不大是可以理解的。

数据的话蛮不错的（from Investing.com up to 2017 annual data)

- 双位数ROI: 14.6%
- GM: 52%
- OM: 27.4%
- NPM: 32% (投资贡献盈利比较多）
- D to E ratio: 32%

SingTel 的 PE (TTM) 大概在10，比起StarHub 和M1 (16&12)是比较低的。如果考虑到规模问题，那就要和Axiata 比较了，Axiata PE 在56，所以也不用看了。哈哈。

技术面：

52周新低在 S$ 3.30, 今天S$ 3.41。图表的话，自从一八年三月创了新低后，底部价在慢慢往上升，还需要几个月时间看会不会是上升趋势。下一道上升阻力大概在S$ 3.54 和 S$ 3.65。

策略：

增持：S$ 3.20 - S$ 3.30
止损：S$ 3.10 (-10%)

SingTel 会是我尝试巴哥和芒哥的另一种投资策略，即是以合理价（不是低估价）买入优质股。我在五月初买入，价钱在S$ 3.41，目前占portfolio的二十出趴。止损点放在S$ 3.10，原因是因为她的周息率其实很稳定，在5%左右，况且S$ 3.30已经是五年新低了，感觉不太可能到这个价位，除非新加坡经济倒退五年？哈哈。名牌股就收就一点咯。

HANWELL HOLDINGS LIMITED (恒威集团 SGX:DM0)

*基本面：生意是FMCG起家的，为了加强盈利，恒威也投资在纸箱制造。

1） FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods), 就是卖基本需求的。这样的生意好处是很stable，当然，盈利也不高。他卖什么呢？

• 在新加坡卖米的，人家的米还是Top Seller in Singapore “Popular proprietary brands include Royal Umbrella rice, Golden Peony rice, Gitangkim rice, Okome rice, Taj Ponni rice, Harmuni rice and oil, Golden Circle oil and Soyalite oil.”
• 也卖Tissue，年报是这样写的 “Beautex was named in the Singapore Book of Records as the first to launch a complete range of premium and economical three-ply tissue products.”
• 还卖豆腐，“Besides specialising in soya bean-based products such as tofu and tau kwa, Fortune Food is also the pioneer in introducing Sobe, Singapore’s first fresh, pasteurised soya milk, to the local market in 1995.”
• 还有零食，“Socma specialises in 4 main categories: confectionery, snacks, grocery items and beverages. Some of the household brands that Socma exclusively distributes include Mentos, Chupa Chups, Smint, Fruitella, Tao Kae Noi, Tai Sun, Supernut, Mazola, Soyalite, Golden Circle, Harmuni, Indomie and Jia Duo Bao(formerly called Wong Lo Kat).”他的零食基本上是卖在马来西亚。

2） 纸箱制造 （Tat Seng Packaging Group Ltd，介绍是这样写的：

Tat Seng is one of the leading manufacturers of corrugated paper packaging products listed on the mainboard of the Singapore Stock Exchange. With operations in Singapore, Suzhou, Nantong, Hefei and Tianjin in China, Tat Seng serves the packaging needs of various industries in Singapore and China by supplying a range of corrugated paper packaging products of different configurations and sizes.

Its customers include Multi-National Corporations and local manufacturers in food and beverage industry, electronics and electrical industry, plastic and metal stamping industry, pharmaceutical and chemical industry as well as the printing, publishers and converting industry. Over the years, Tat Seng has progressed through continuous improvement and has been maintaining a stronghold in the marketplace.

Tat Seng's key products include corrugated paper boards, corrugated paper cartons, die-cut boxes, assembly cartons and heavy duty corrugated paper products.

*基本面：业绩 （2014-2017年报）

• Gross margin TTM 22.58%
• Operating margin TTM 5.49%
• Net Profit margin TTM 4.51%
• Return on Investment TTM 7.48%
• Quick Ratio MRQ 1.83
• Current Ratio MRQ 2.07
• LT Debt to Equity MRQ 0.08%
• Total Debt to Equity MRQ 22.1%

盈利每年增长，除了2015掉一点。纸箱制造占65%，其他的是FMCG。个人觉得管理层风险和盈利管控都很好，唯一比较失色的是DY很低，管理层好像不是很想回馈小股东。

根据Q118季报，CPS (Cash per Share）有大概有 S$ 0.71.
这是一支 net net stock，股价已经来到52周新底了，前景不错，只是老板有点吝啬，DYU只有~1%。刚读完巴非特的Ground Rule,就买入少少看看。

*策略：

 

1) 第一批：买入价 0.225新币 (Done);

2) 第二批：低于0.22 / 0.21 (Pending).

3) 不止损

4) 长线 两年