Bot in SUNWAY @ $2.66 Last Week, 3rdQ report looks good

Over pass week, i had bot in another 20 lots of SUNWAY @ 2.66, i'm holding 80lots now with average proce of 2.70. SUNWAY had announced the 3rd Q report:

 

Not so bad is general.

 

Yesterday price dip hardly but today recover, guest i should get some yesterday but i not dare to catch more on falling knife :). still looking good infuture, lets hold it.

FITTERS 3rd Q_13 result, not bad ^_^!

FITTERS 3rd quarter result looks good, revenue and profit increased, minimal short term debt can cash rich. However, the interesting part is there are no cash generated from operation??? looks suspicious!

Segment result shows that the major gain in profit and revenue is mainly contribute by property development, others segment remain stable (fire service & R/WTE). Nothing much to highlight, the suspicious part remain at the -ve cash generated from operation, to dig out more from forum later.

我的第二个产业购买计划_P2

好滴，我看上了D'Pristine@Medini.

六月初，Iskandar Medini基本上已经有几栋公寓在卖了，好比Paradiso Nouva ， the meridin@medini 。。。。为什么D'Pristine? 先来看看地点，Medini的中心是在青线里，这包括Legoland, Shopping mall及医疗中心，青线外围就是规划的residencial area, D'Pristini就是那星星，正正在medini中心，走路就可以到那些商业/医疗中心，买它是因为方便，而且我相信未来轻快铁将会建在Legoland附近。在这青线范围里只有两栋SOFO/Condo,一个是新加坡的高级公寓（就在Urban Wellness前面）另一个就是D;Pristine了，靠近shoppingmall，吃喝交通都方便，重要的是租客可以target那些在Medini中心工作的人。

D'pristine的发展商是MCT Group（http://www.mct.com.my/），这是他们在JB的第一个projects,其实他们在KL有蛮多的Projects，就像Putrajaya SkyPark，从他的project来看，像是一个蛮有经验于发展Mix property的发展商。对了，D'pristine是好像KSL Citymall般，楼下是shoping,楼上是SOFO/SOHO，左边是office tower.所以是个commercial property.

我的上限是价钱必须在600k以下的两房式，楼层不可以在17楼以上，窗口望出去没有高楼阻挡视线，白天不会被太阳晒到，不靠近电梯及垃圾房 :) 最后我是真的买到这样的单位哦，个人觉得如果要投资房产，首先你必须问自己，如果我买了这个unit是给自己住的，那个环境是我想要的吗？如果连屋主自己也住不下，你如何可以expect租客会住的好，租金怎么可以开得高呢？

Bot In SUNWAY & BUMITAMA

There goes another week :) well, 2 actions this week, as per previous post, i had selected property counter & CPO counter that i want :), so they are SUNWAY and BUMITAMA.

Bot SUNWAY @2.74 on Tuesday as below:

 

 

So why SUNWAY?? well, Q2 EPS is @20cent, so lets say i chop 25% for annum EPS ended @30cent, the PE is @ 9.1, it is low as compare to other competitor such as MAHSING, SPSETIA, UEM, most of them is at PE ranging from 12-22. so taking average PE of 15 30cent x 15 = $4.5!! wow, more then 60% return! another benefit is the Q2 NTA is @$2.9! premium of about -6%, tu dia! For her price, it was traded @ 75% lower from 52Wk top already, so instead of waiting it to go to 52Wk low, i should grab my self some of it.

The only concern i have over SUNWAY is the DEBT. the debt ratio is ~0.53 while the DTE ratio is 1.23 which is higher across the sector. well, it had issue a 1:3 right issue back in August and had brought down the gearing from 0.53 to about 0.3. phew.. And with the projects on hand especially at Iskandar, Singapore and China, looks like the future is there, just the metter of time. The recent share price dip is likely due to gov activities to control the property price, but in overall, SUNWAY financial is still running good as what i can see. Today it was closed @ 2.66. I'm planning to enter another 40 lots if the price fall further more, lets see :)

As of CPO counter, i had bot in BUMITAMA, this guy was listed on SGX only on April 2012, consider a newbie for SGX, Singapore have only a few of pure CPO player and most of them are having land in Indonesia, with the considering of cheaper labor fee, that makes me enter SGX CPO counter instead of KLSE. i had bot in 50 lots @S$1. will post in more detail on this stock when i have time.

Clear all by YTLPOWR-WB, What Next?

Yeah! Finally Dispo all my YTLPOWR-WB with average return of ~57%. not bad not bad. last sold on Friday @ 0.72, reaching my TP liao, finished all my YTLPOWR-WB :)

 

With that says, i have zero holding of warrent for now :) so according to the plan i will start to buy in mother stock. current cash vs share ratio is 60:40, stock on hand left UMWOG and FITTERS, FITTERS is taken up almost 70% of the share value while UMWOG is will small quantity. too high for me to chase now @ 3.50.

I'm planning to get into CPO/property conter in next week, fund alocation will be another 10-20% from my capital, so look like i can only select either one, CPO / Property :( CPO price is moving up due to bad weather by end of the year, property stock was on hard sale last few weeks due to the 2014 budget anouncement. by looking at the situation, i would expect the return from property stock will be faster then CPO as property stock running low is due to penic sale. CPO price had been running low since end of 2012, thus, stock price is more or less stable at low, buy in now might need to hold for awhile and the risk is again the weather impact. while for property counters, the concern is the sale impact in coming few quarters. So in summary, CPO counter good for mid to long term hold while property counters is good for counter attack until March 2014 before the new rule really turned on.

Lets look at CPO counters. the impact from reacent HaiYen case as well as current raining season, the CPO price is looking likely to recover a bit, while the demand of CPO from China and India is also looking to be increased. it is really a good time now for long term hold. well, which is the best counter to hold? I'm looking at those CPO listed in SGX and KLSE as well. lets see which one is more attractive :).

As of Property counter, Sunway, UEM, MAHSING, TAMBUN?? :) lets see see

我的第二个产业购买计划_P1

我的第二个产业购买计划告一段落啦！从选地点，到抽签，选Unit，找loan，及签SPA，竟然用了整整五到六个月。。。

自从分析了一下柔佛的房地产，本来已经放弃买房产的计划了，但是想了一想，觉得置产还是要做的，一直把钱放在股票也不是办法，重点是如何在柔佛找到一个价钱合理，又要理想地点的产业呢？？今天就来分享一下我所选的这一个产业。。

看偏了柔佛，就是那几个地方而已，Mount Austin, Ulu Tiram, Johor Town, Bukit Indah, Danga Bay, Kempas, Plentong, Senai, 及Nusa Jaya. 其实更远的还有Pasir Gudang, 及 Masai.了解了一下地点，其实选择不多。首先我是买来投资的，要不就出租，要不就卖掉，所以一定要选择happening的地点，当然，价钱是下一个考量。有了这个目标，地点基本上已经可以锁定在Maunt Austin, Johor Town, Bukit Indah, Danga Bay,Pelentong,Kempas,及NusaJaya. 这些都是新加坡及外国人都比较方便到达的地方。再来，如果要容易租又容易卖的，非得是公寓不可，Kempas就可以cancel了，Mount Austin如果你有发现到的话，这里至少有一个半现成的公寓，还有五栋在赶工的，这里除了Sunway Collage及医院以外，应该没什么出租的Market了，再说，租金并不高，一个月大概RM800-RM1000吧，供过于求。

Johor Town地点漂亮，但是现在已经在~RM900-1000psf了，小的没钱，况且我并不了解town area的租屋需求及rental rate，还是算了吧。Danga bay,就只有那间Country Garden有看头，但是那个project target有接近10000unit，而且30%的unit 会以买一送一的方式给在中国上海买高级住宅区的客户（under同一个发展商），也就是说30%的unit几乎肯定是等着出租或卖掉的，在加上10000户的高密度公寓，我觉得有一定的投资风险。Pelantong的话so far我觉得交通不方便，一直塞车，可能以后会好转吧。这样一来，我只有剩下Bukit Indah及Nusa Jaya了。

以Bukit Indah 来说，的确是个好地方SP Setia的公寓已经卖完入住了，另外还有Setia ECO Garden,及在Sutera area的 The Seed，这一带都是在target每天来回新加坡工作的人，那么他们因该买得起，何必租呢？我是说出租的Market没那么大，况且我觉得RM7++psf在Bukit Indah好像贵了点 :) 所以最后我的地点锁定在NusaJaya Iskandar 了。。

Iskandar的发展蓝图看上去是蛮全面的，目的是打造金融，教育，医药，工业及消费娱乐within一个地区。我看到的是专业人士及外国aspect的租约。如果只看看现在的Ledang Height 及那一栋在Nusa Jaya唯一的公寓，现在的公寓租金是~RM3000-4000一个月，Landed是~RM5000-7000，客户几乎都是外国人及工厂老板。当然他们也可以选择住在HorizonHill及Bukit Indah，但是当Iskandar真的释放value的时候，就会像新加坡的OchardRoad 般，住满了一堆外国人及有钱人（在发白日梦:~])。问题是能不能成功？？没人懂。不过以现在的情况来看，淡马锡也已经插了一脚，这对我来说是添了一些些的confidences. :)

那么，在Iskandar有那么多的projects，而且价钱也不便宜，那该如何买呢？过几天我再来写写我选的这间公寓。

SWAP to UMWOG

Buy in 30 lots of UMWOG @ 3.14, this is swap from all my YTL @ 1.64. reason doing SWAP is UMWOG unlikely to drop below my TP less then RM3, thus to avoid running chicken and for water temperature testing, i had swap my capital from YTL to UMWOG, no additional fund alocated for it as of now. so why YTL? i'm almost jetst getting back by broker commision. YTL is currently @ PE 12, if we target PE @ 15-18, the most return i can get is around 10-20%. with that says, swaping to UMWOG is giving me more chance to hitting return ~30%. Just for this reason.

Also i had placed a sell on my remaining YTLPOWR-WB @ 0.725, see how it goes tomorrow :)

Genting SP Heart Broken La, SWAP SWAP SWAP.

I had disposed all my Genting SP last week. It is enough for me, i had been keeping this stock since early 2012 until now, and it is really funny that by the time when i buy in, the PE is ~18 with the price of S$1.52, but today, it is at S$1.475 and the PE is way high at 28!! What is happening? One thing i observes along this ~2years period, Genting SP had never perform any batter either in gambling or its entertainment theme park.

One of the big challenge for Genting is MBS, well, in a small country like Singapore and there are 2 casino is really big matter! when i buy in genting SP, I'm expecting a tough competition here and standing a chance of 50-50 for this 2 casinos, but with what i see in pass 2 years, genting had been losing to MBS at almost every FY regardless of the wining rate and the VIP occupy rate. Well, i do expose my self to both of the casino recently and the feeling i have is they are on different standard where MBS is giving me more like world class casino while GSP is like low class casino in terms of the game and the service, no wander the VIP all goes to MBS... haha.

Back to the theme park portion, well, it have the Marine park opened recently, however, the return of this section is way slow to cover the expansion, i think that is why the profit of the company is like fully rely on the gambling game. So if GSP cannot do well on casino, it will keep at this situation at all the time. The fair value for GSP was expect to be ~SGD1 only with latest EPS. Talk about the future, unless GSP change the way they run the casino, else the future is not so promising, personally, i would think that they need to keep the VIP from graping away by MBS and to do this, they need to improve the service and the culture of the casino, lets compare the casino in Vegas and Macau, if you put this 2 in Singapore, which one do you think the foreigner will prefer to spend their money?? :)

The lesson learned from Genting SP is never do any forecasting based on assume (i assume the company will be getting batter with new facility opened such as Marine park but i over look the business culture of GSP and the huge competition of gambling industry in Singapore, only realize it after i visit the MBS and GSP by my self), this lesson cost me ~1.4k SGD.... very ex... haha

For the mean time i had bot in 90lots of SabanaREIT @ S$1.095. I'm looking at the high DY for this company. Since i had allocated some capital in SGX as well, I'm planning to invest on high DY or stable counter on SGX while remain active in KLSE. few reasons is: 1) SGD exchange rate is all ways stand high and i would like to take this advantage to keep some high DY stock from SGX. 2) I do not have deep analysis on SGX counters, so it is a bit risky for me to shot on SGX counter. with this, swapping my fund from SGP to REIT stock will be my plan in next few months/yrs for SGX game plan.

Back to Sabana, why Sabana? Below is the data i capture from "SGX REIT DATA" with latest QE data, filtered by only REIT for industrial.

Among all the REIT, I'm looking at higher DY,with low PTB. gearing is subjected to me as long as it is manageable. Sabana REIT just reported 100% occupied on all it portfolio and it is a good news here. On top of this, the DY is the highest among all other industrial REIT in SG. PTB is slightly above 1 (@1.03) but with the share price close to 52Wk low and PE below 10. SolidBuild REIT is new IPO and its under my monitor as well, the good thing of SBREIT is there are ~42% of her portfolio is Biz Park which is having more stable income and lower risk. :)

 REIT in Singapore might be more attractive to me as compare to REIT in Malaysia due to the land value in Singapore. On top of that, i prefer industrial REIT in Singapore due to the globally and the Singapore government strategic. the risk is fairly low as compare to Malaysia industrial REIT. The only thing that might not so good for Singapore REIT is the gearing is high, which mean they need to maintain higher occupy rate so that the DEBT can be paid on-time.

Enter YTL... Just give me a reason just a little bit... ^_^

 

 

Late post, enter a little bit of YTL Corp last week @1.61. this is a recormended counter by other blogger, but by the time i'm ready to enter (review, velidate, and fund alocation), it had increased ~7% from the proposing enter price from the blog, obviously the one who make call is entering at the right time while i'm enter at so call bit late after rebounce from 52 week low. :)

YTL PE are at ~11 based on latest quarter EPS calculation at the time i enter, this is violating my normal counter picking for PE below 10, so the reason for me to enter is blue chip and 52week low share price. From the point i enter, it had bounced 7% from bottom, well, it should be a safe place from my point of view, why? i'm looking at YTL at PE 15 which translate to ~RM2 price, this is ~25% return and i think 15 PE is fare for YTL. My cash ratio to YTL is also pretty low, just to get some pocket money from it :)

Ok, some other counter that i'm eyeing and doing some homework, they are SUNREIT and UMWOG.

SUNREIT is not those kind of stock that you can get return from the share price in short period but rather the DIV, this counter have DIV yield ~6%, well, not the best amoung other company in this sector but if you look at the property under this company, they are mainly shopping mall, the rental are relatively more stable. so i'm looking at a right timeing to enter.

UMWOG is an IPO counter on 1/11. well well, the ONG counter always come with higher price, since it was just launched, i will wait for couple of week to see the situation after market is stable. TP below RM3.. :) 

In the progress to reduce the Warrent

2013 Feb - Oct, i have very little activities on stock market, mainly is monitoring and to achieve what i want to do: to cut down Warrant holding. as per the review from 2010-2012, I'm too active in running in and out from the stock market. so need to change a bit the behavior.

http://ronan1111.blogspot.com/2013/01/blog-post.html

Last post, i have 4 counters on hand which is PJDEV-WC, HAPSENG-WA, YTLPOWR-WB, and FITTERS.

2 activities i had made for pass 8 months ~

1. Swapping:

PJDEV-WC is the 1st counter i cut back in May 2013, with the 505 impact, there are slightly increase in the WC price, and i just take the opportunity to chop it off and switch to FITTERS as per plan, so, my FITTERS had increase from 120lots to 321 lots now with average price at $0.71. so one mistake here is I'm buying along the rise, some more it is sky high at ~$0.8+!! WTH!! haha.. anyway, with current PE @ 7.8, i assume still quite cheap with low Debt. lets wait and see, to date holding period is ~ close to 1 year already :)

2. Reducing Warrant:

It is never been easy for me to swap the warrant immediately, but finally i have a chance to dispo my HAPSENG-WA. total disposal of 390 lots at average price of $0.63, return of ~29% in total of ~20 months. my disposition guideline is simple for HAPSENG:
1. Parent PE is ~12 already
2. Premium is almost zero liao when is sold out my last group of stock on hand at ~0.68 ( premium @ -1%).
3. conversion date is @ 2016.. already less then 3yrs, although just marginal lower then 3 years.

To date, HAPSENG_WA standing at $0.73 and i cannot for see any solid FA reason that can further push the WA up other then "goreng". well, i might wrong, and i might not knowing the company very well.. hahaha... disposing it to look for other good opportunity then.

I had also chop off 50% of my YTLPOWR recently @ $0.60, it is ~43% of my avg price already.

So why i still keeping YTLPOWR-WB at 50% while disposing HAPSENG-WA? as both the mother also running at PE 12 and premium is also @ zero now? other then the mutual date of HAPSENG-WA is shorter then YTLPOWR-WB. lets look at below plot:

HAPSENG-WA/HAPSENG

- Premium keep dropping along 2 years. this is mainly due to mother is moving faster then the child all the time.
- Mother share price already reach 2 yrs high.
- Risk: If mother not moving further, will child moving up alone? (unlikely)

YTLPOWR-WB/YTLPOWR

 

- YTLPOWR-WB premium is fluctuating along 3 years period, at different cycle, the child seem to be catching up the mother trend pretty well, thus, the correlation is more strong between mother and child for YTLPOWR based on pass data.
- Recent low premium is due to mother moving faster in this period and based on 1st point, we might still have room for the child to catch up.
- Mother PE at 12, what is the boost that can bring the mother go even higher? I'm confident with the privatization rumour. :)

So, that is the reason i chop off HAPSENG-WA instead of YTLPOWR-WB. my target cut will be at price >$0.75.based on current gearing, the mother should be at ~$2. which i think is very likely and reasonable to but hit :)

Ok, now lets talk about what next?

the uncertainty of US QE3 plan really annoying me, well, if we purely talk about counter, I'm looking at KFIMA (PE ~6.+), MULTICO (PE ~2.+).. while continue to source low PE stock. When i screen through the counter table in the newspaper, it is hardly for me to fish out the counter with PE <10 ...="" :="" p="" sad="" so="">Lets see how it goes after i done my home work, my current cash vs stock is ~50:50 liao.

妈咪孕三月

这个月，妈咪可是很难挨哦，害喜的状况越来越严重了，虽然她肚子不再涨风，但开始呕吐了。妈咪对很多味道都敏感，而且她也不敢多吃，怕你搞怪，一不合你胃口就会作呕，现在这个阶段，酸梅可是她的良伴了，这个月里，单单买酸梅就买掉了近100块。。哈哈

有时候爹地在office上班，你妈咪就会打电话来说你又坏蛋了，搞得她呕吐，虽然她很不想吃东西，因为会容易吐，但是没办法因为你需要营养咯。

这个月我们去见了医生，看到你终于有了宝宝的形状了，好开心哦。。 这一次爹地陪了妈咪去，医生还让爹地听你的心跳！

除了看私人医生，你妈咪也到政府医院去，其实爹地很不满意政府医院的服务，你妈咪早上去，竟然要等3个小时！而且Ultrasound仪器还是坏的！要不是你和妈咪需要的asid forlic 和calsium 是free的，爹地才不让妈咪去政府医院看医生！但是，听说政府粉红色小册子很重要哦，所以一定要先拿着防身！

爹地和妈咪一直在想要不要帮你存脐带血，看见很多广告但是还是做不了决定，放心，在你出生前我们一定有结论！哈哈

加码 FITTERS？？

綠色成長股‧輝德盈利長期看俏
熱股評析 2013-02-05 18:33
（吉隆坡5日訊）輝德控股（FITTERS，9318，主板貿服組）是興業研究指定的綠色成長股，即使因中國市場放緩而步伐比較蹣跚，預測其營運盈利有望從2013財政年的3%增長至2014財政年8%，再由2015年躍進至22%。

輝德主要與油棕園掛鉤，利用油棕枝幹生產為高加值生物燃料顆粒或塊狀，歐洲以這類產品取代污染嚴重的煤作為冬天取暖用途。同時也利用棕油提煉廠的廢水化為能源，作為上述產品的加工，全方位解決了油棕園與煉油廠原本被視為廢棄物的問題。

分析員說，輝德在此領域鮮少遇競爭，主要是有能力提供自供應、裝置、啟用乃至日常營運活動的“全方位方案＂，其次是願意在馬投資中持股，及提供生產干長纖維（DLF）的保障。

然而，這類產品在中國跌價，可能衝擊其盈利與賺益。因此，透過第三方執行的綠色棕油提煉與相關聯營協議，也礙於上述關係可能放緩。該公司是最近與印尼英東種植和貿易風種植（TWSPLNT，6327，主板種植組）簽約，收購有關原料作為干長纖維。

在盈利預測中，興業預測這個財政年的兩間第三方綠色棕油提煉廠貢獻介於全年的貢獻，明後年會有4間與八間加入。

透過第三方（棕油公司）以每公噸不少過520令吉收購原料，以製成上述產品。干長纖維（DLF）產品價格由3至6個月前的600至620令吉，放緩至約為520令吉，近乎無利可圖水平之下，輝德在這方面將放緩步伐。

乾長纖維（DLF）出口至中國放緩，公司也將多元化市場，以減少對某個市場過度依賴。

該行預測一旦中國製造業與經濟復甦，上述產品價格趨軟也將告一段落。

輝德也將擴大投資該產品，使干長纖維可以加工作為生質顆粒塊，這在歐洲需求更殷，價格也較穩定。

“輝德的另一心血結晶，在克服了監管機構與融資問題後，有望在使用等離子氣化工藝後，每日處理20公噸生物醫藥廢棄物。坐落森州申達央工藝園3英畝地段的處理廠，料於2014年啟用。＂

按本益比8倍計算，目標價為85仙，暫無評級。（星洲日報／財經）

=========================

Due to the over react to the elections rumours by end of Jan'13, FITTERS continuously trend down at $0.57. the CPO price had slowly pick up since mid of Dec'12. Forecasting to be positive across 2013 to 2014. How accurate will the forecast be? whatever it is, all CPO had been dropping since year back, and there will not be always low in price, so as not all time high price in the market, what i need is the power of holding. :)

 
My FITTERS is with average price of $0.64, targeting to buy in again once market open on Wednesday/Thursday :P

Well, I'll be looking at other plantation stock as well, see any undervalue guys out there :)

FITTERS at RM0.63

Bot in FITTERS today. average price at ~RM0.64.
let see how it goes :)

我对新山房地产的一些看法

看了8year前辈的一些关于Malaysia房产泡沫的文章，让我感慨现在新山房地产的情况
http://8yearsblog.blogspot.com/2012/08/2013.html

柔佛屋价在近几年真的是涨了很多，但也太快了吧？！两年前我买下了现在住的屋子，当时我是以RM450k买下来的，Clustter SemiD 四年屋龄再加上家私，在2010上旬时的这个价位算一点点偏高了，但是由于地点漂亮，保安系统好，所以就买下来了。

在短短的两年里，今天我这里的屋价以同样的配套计算，现在的市价是介于RM700k-800k之间，涨了进50%，而同一区的新屋，clustter semiD都已经在RM680k起跳了。这屋价的涨潮依小弟的看法是酱的：自从经济复苏后，马劳也开始增加了，居住于新山的马劳也越来越多，自然，这些人的购买力也增加了，但是新山还有一大部分的人是不在新国工作的，所以这两个不同income source的购买力差异也越来越大。反观新山的发展，不管你走到哪里，你都会看到一大片正在发展的组屋condo。这些发展是冲着马劳及新国人来的。

很奇怪的事发生了，每每你到新屋推介会，那些屋子都会被一抢而空，现在500k的condo一天就卖完了，是真的那么好卖吗？？先不管是发展商欺骗我们还是真有其事，屋子销售得那么快的原因肯定的是有很大的投机成分。不管是马劳，新国人，还是本地新山人，大家明显地都看好新山的房地产，大家都觉得还有屋价上升的空间，大家都觉得欣欣向荣 :)

再来看看，新山不像KL或槟城，新山有很大一片土地，说不上寸土是金，屋价上涨得快，以小弟的愚见看来，很大成分是for投资。如果是投资那就来算算吧，先别挑排屋，排屋不容易出租，就看condo吧：

价钱：
一间RM500k的两房式condo, 给了10%头期，每个月还得供接近两千，那一间租金可要在RM2000或以上。。不便宜。。

市场：
1。 本地人？本地人肯定租不起，租得起的也很少，要是本地人租的起，那他因该买得起，何必租呢？
2。 马劳？同样的道理，要是租的起，那他因该买得起，如果说不是长住，那在新加坡租房间更划算。进出新加坡很辛苦的。
3。新国人？可能有少数会跟你买起来，那就很幸运了。

投资竞争：
不必多说了，你想到的人家也想到，以现在一扫而空的情况来看，同一栋楼不懂有几间在等着出租。

总的来说，现在新山的屋价太贵了，如果你要买来住那还好，如果买来投资可能会有蛮高的风险，不是怕你供不起，而是一旦你卖或租不出，你还得按时出钱保养它，不然要卖时也没价钱。很多人都会说propety不会贬值，那是对的，除非你买在合理价。那什么是合理价呢？如果你是新山人，有空开车去Bukit Indah, 2nd link, Permas, Setia Indah, Setia Tropika看看，如果你觉得供求平衡,那当下的价钱就是合理价了，如果有人告诉你新加坡，吉隆坡，槟城屋价更高，那是应该的，因为他们是他们，我们是新山 :)

House Price index: http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/malaysia/Price-History

Reason of 加码 FITTERS

Found a post on CARI regarding FITTERS, not so old but also not new, just to share:

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投資致富 2012-12-10 11:25

芙蓉讀者問：
輝德控股（FITTERS，9318，主板貿服組）前景如何？我早前以每張5仙，買進20萬張輝德控股WA（FITTERS-WA，9318WA，憑單），若全面轉換這批憑單，虧損幾率會有多大？因為我擔心當每個投資者都進行轉換，賣壓會導致轉換成本上升，最終母股會跌破58仙嗎？

答：
輝德截至9月30日首9個月淨利增長18.13%至1千754萬4千令吉，受惠於防火配備及建築原料銷售上漲。雖然該公司一直以來都取得盈利成長，不過卻沒有受到市場太大的關注。

該公司早前與貿易風種植（TWSPLNT，6327，主板種植組）聯營投資綠色提煉廠解決方案活動，將提煉廠排出的污水和棕果渣用於發電和生產纖維。這符合其商業經營模式，除了透過纖維貿易營造經常性收入，也藉此增加收入基礎，相信上述投資項目每年可捎來150萬令吉淨利。

分析員認為輝德攫獲的綠色提煉廠解決方案合約，只能從2013財政年開始顯現盈利效益，並看好該公司未來將宣佈更多類似投資項目，以吸引機構投資者的目光。

綠色提煉廠業務料佔2013財年7%盈利貢獻，但2014年可激增至29%，至2015年更達41%。該公司整體表現不錯，分析員給予其1令吉零5仙至1令吉15仙合理價，不過若缺乏催化劑，股價短期或難有大突破。 (good to catch now :P)

另外，談到憑單轉換問題，輝德控股WA已從11月8日起暫停交易，並在11月28日除牌。以53仙轉換價及你買進的每張憑單5仙計，總成本只有58仙，顯著低於母股約64.5仙。兩者的價差為6.5仙，若乘上手中的20萬張憑單，則可在轉換期限內賺取1萬3千令吉，惟前提是母股仍企於64.5仙水平，而上週五止，每股只處61仙水平，未來盈虧仍胥視母股前景。（星洲日報／投資致富‧投資問診室）

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So, the mother seem to be more attractive to me compare to the WA, even though it is not applicable now, i more interested in the comment of the future earning.

Digging more into the annual report to check out the performance again, as in my previous post, the performance of this stock is consider fare, however, I'm interested to look into more on the company performance during 2007/2008 and 2009 to check out how did she perform during financial crisis, well, this is what i found:

 

Summary:

1. Company is making profit for pass 10 years, non of the year is making loss.

2. EPS & profit is fluctuating, but still performing at average during 2008/2009 period.

3. Revenue increase in recent 5 years, latest rolling 4 quarters shows slight drop in revenue (404,607) as compare to 2011 but profit is higher then 2011 with rolling 4Q ended at 24,668 (EPS ~11sen)

4. historical gearing looks healthy and well below 0pt5. just a bit concern on the operating cash flow over total asset, it was at -ve on year 2011.

5. ROE not really stable but still +ve.

From business point of view, it is the  leader in providing integrated fire protection and prevention solutions as a “one-stop” fire protection specialist. In mid of 2011, the company start to expend into the renewable energy & green palm oil mill, property development and construction engineering which is still a good move from my point of view (anyhow you can only make consistent money with concurring the fire protection market in Malaysia, to growth the company, i think this is a good move).

looking at the top 30 share holder list, they are holding up to ~70% of the share at 2011, the liquidity of share in the market is quite low if it is still in the same status today. Also that the company still carry out quite heavy of share buy back in this year and recently, not sure this is good or bad but at lease this shows that the share holder are still confident on the business (given it to maintain the share price or to accumulate the share)

Good thing is it is not a hot stock and i don't think the market is focusing on this counter, current price at 0.61sen with PE at ~8.7, not super cheap but it has been traded at 2 years lowest price now. current CPO price is pretty low, and by the time the CPO price recover, i would expect the company will be making profit from the green energy division.

FITTERS was introduced by SAM, together with the same time frame, he had also buy in some other stock, however, I only intrested in FITTERS mainly due to what was discussed above. I'm currently holding FITTERS with less then 20pst of my capitial, i'm going to try to swap some of my warrant to FITTERS and make it to about 30pst of my capital, this will be my 1st step to change my invesment from heavy warrant to heavy mother :P

- Just a 2 sense from me :)

妈咪孕二月

进入第七个礼拜了。。你妈咪又要去为你照相了，很对不起，爹地每次都不能陪妈咪去，要上班挣奶粉钱啦，哈哈，妈咪要周日去，因为人比较少，所以爹地就不能去了。。

 

虽然还看不清楚宝贝你长什么样，但Ah Bee你好像变大了哦！！妈咪告诉爹地说医生让她听你的心跳！爹地半信半疑，你的小心脏已经开始工作了? 哈哈， 我的宝贝你很健康哦！

 

这个月你妈咪蛮辛苦的，她肚子开始涨风了，由于你的appartment越来越大，把妈咪的胃和肠往上推，所以她时常会打嗝和放屁，肚子好不舒服哦。此外，你妈咪的胃口也变了，以前她超爱吃的面粉稞，现在一点都不想吃，还只喜欢吃apolo layer cake，你妈咪说是因为宝贝你不喜欢，哈哈，所以整个月下来她什么也吃不下，但又不可以不吃，怕你饿到。我们都搞不懂你爱吃什么。为了让你有足够的营养，爹地买了Ammum给妈咪喝，但你妈咪说喝久了很腻，不过没法啦，谁叫你是她的心肝宝贝，她还是乖乖地喝。

 

这时的妈咪特别懒惰！每天躺在沙发上很累酱，所以爹地答应了她从现在起妈咪不用做家务了，爹地会做完全部家务直到你出生 :) （其实爹地想请女佣的，不过因为懒惰找，所以到现在还是自己做。。）

 

虽然你妈咪很懒惰酱，但她还是超厉害的，尽然还带你出远门去旅行呢！！那是你第一次坐飞机，还去了印尼，那是她的公司旅行啦，你还算乖，没让她在出门时太辛苦。。

 

在这个月里，你长得很快，而妈咪开始担心害喜的状况越来越严重，注意哦，他还没开始呕吐哦 :)

 

 

 

 



 

妈咪孕一月

想了许久，还是决定把这一份惊喜记下来，2012年10月21号，你妈咪心血来潮拿了验孕棒去test，突然她静悄悄地站在楼梯口然后对爹地说：“Dear，两条线喔”，Ops！那是我们第一次认识你哦，哈哈，爹地开心到不知所措，赶忙冲出买了第二支棒棒要妈咪再验一遍。。。。

第二天妈咪一个人就去妇产科看医生了，证实了你的存在，哈哈，看看你，虽然只有一颗豆那么大，但我们是感觉到你的存在的，欢迎你哦！

你妈咪看了你生平第一张照片后，很专业地算一算，然后告诉爹地说，唔，你应该是九月尾就报到了，哈哈，很Pro酱。。。

我们决定先保密，只告诉了你阿姨和外公婆，阿公阿嬷就两个星期后才被通知，不要让那么多人知道你的到来，怕你烦嘛 :)

第一个月你妈咪还很正常，爹地除了让她吃医生吩咐的药之外，也买了一堆燕窝让妈咪补，还买了一本胎教书，像字典酱厚！要学学当爸爸妈妈了。。

听人家讲如果在你还小小的时候就让你听音乐，你以后会很乖很聪明哦，爹地妈咪就上网download了一堆胎教音乐，在你小小时睡觉前就让你听Mozart的音乐，哈哈，反而是我们睡得很香呢。。

爹地很期待你的第二张个人照哦。。。

沉静的两年

我回来啦！！沉静了两年，我人生中发生了很多事，买了房，结了婚，在加上频密的出国公干，我竟然荒废了Blogspot, 哈哈。。Update一下status, 两年来，起起伏伏，在2012年年尾，我好像发现了一些心得。。。我还是不适合频密地交易。。看看以下我的Record:

还是写英文比较方便，虽然是Broken English...hahaha

Review the performance for last 2 years (July 2010 - Dec 2012), although i still have a net gain of ~8%, but this is just like putting my money in the FD!! WTF!! and what i observes from this history is the gain can only comes with long holding time + low/ fair enter price, look at FAVCO, BOC, and Puncak!! average PE at that time is ~4-5! solid company with consistance gain!

How about those i sell with loss? common is i'm not confident to these company and i sold them out each time i hear any bad news, to check back again whether what is the performance of these stock, lets look at it one by one.

Sealink:
EPS continue drop from 2008 - 2011, with roling 4 Quater result, looks like 2012 EPS continue to reduce to 2.58, this mean profit continuously drop for 6 years, while overall market recover in 2010 but the earning of sealink do not follow, i cut loss at RM0.60 with the net loss of 17% :( what a bad buy in move... should see the earning shrink across 2008 to the time i buy in.

FAVCO:
EPS continue growth from 2008 even up to this year, PE when i bot should be ~5-6, now is ~7 :) shere price stod at 1.65 now, too bad i do not have holding power, else gain is ~85%.

SCOMILA:
This burger, performance is really not stable, some more got loss on 2010 & 2011, 2012 roling 4Q still net loss with EPS at -12. although latest 3 quarter it start to recover, but overall, the company is not consistant. short term play is still able to make profit, the LA is now at ~35sen and 1X higher then my buying price, but appearantly i'm not the kind of person that able to pick the gain from this stock, haha..

BJCORP:
This is a big company, but the CEO reputation is not good, the profit also marginal and seeing loss at 2009. lets see why i buy this stock (luckly i do record :P)

Catching chance?! predict future?? haha.. Now this is not a good reason to buy in:
1. Gain still not stable along the time, EPS droping, so it is not a good way to predict the future of the company with not so excellent history data.
2. PE high when the time i buy, it is at ~11. current price is ~50cts, PE ~8
I dispo all at RM1.04, how lucky am i ?!!

HUNZPTY-WB:
This stock looks good in earning,continue increase in profit since 2008, too bad that i'm buying the WB previously, current PE is ~2, Maybe this can be one of the counter that worth to invest. KIV KIV :)

BOC:
This is the stock that teach me a lot, bot in by following SAM and doing so study after that, 4th largest Bank in China, one of the China bank that have more investment in the global market. Price deep to <2 .5=".5" 2008="2008" 2010="2010" 3.4hkd="3.4hkd" and="and" at="at" back="back" bad="bad" boc="boc" brought="brought" buy="buy" crisist.="crisist." current="current" dip="dip" do="do" drop="drop" due="due" euro="euro" even="even" finance="finance" future="future" gainning="gainning" haha..="haha.." have="have" holding="holding" i="i" in="in" increasing="increasing" is="is" it="it" mainly="mainly" market="market" nbsp="nbsp" near="near" not="not" p="p" pe="pe" power="power" price="price" some="some" that="that" the="the" time="time" to="to" too="too" when="when" will="will" with="with" yearly="yearly">
TAMBUN and KSL:
Tambun is a newbee to the main board, KSL is a stable company, both of them is a fair counter, KSL profit up up down down, but still no loss, not bad, Tambun have less history data, need KIV, tambun is now with PE ~9, higher then my buying price.

Overall, with the bad trading history in this 2 years, the conclusion i have is that

1. I'm not suitable to use the "low buy high sold" method, i do not have a full time analysis on the stock and full time monitoring the stock price, thus not suitable to catch the best price.
2. Warrent is not suitable for me, if i have no time to monitor the share price, mean i might need to hold the stock for some time, holding the monther vs warrent, looks like mother is more confortable, of cause, blue chip warrent can be consider.

Current holding stock are YTLPOWR-WB, PJDEV-WC, HAPSENG-WA and FITTER

YTLPOWR, is a cash rick company, with PE ~9, cattching the WB seems more reasonable for me.

PJDEV-WC, this is highest paper loss for my combi as of now. this is a fair counter, my WC might be buying at higher price, for now i can only hold.

HAPSENG-WA, this is also a fair company, marginal paper loss, current PE at ~9, hold for a while.

FITTER, PE at 8.5, also a fair company. hold and see.

Looking at current holding, 75% is warrent?! hmm... my target for 2013 is to swap from warrent to mother stock... :)

Coming up stock selection will be focus at Mother stock, low PE, continueous earning.